Who Does History Remember?
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1 1 / 16 Who Does History Remember? Using Wikipedia to Measure the Historical Reputation of Leaders Jeffrey B. Arnold and H. E. Goemans jeffrey.arnold@rochester.edu April 13, th Annual MPSA Conference, Chicago
2 A Puzzle of Two Leaders 2 / 16
3 2 / 16 A Puzzle of Two Leaders Winston Churchill
4 2 / 16 A Puzzle of Two Leaders Winston Churchill Henry-Campbell Bannerman
5 3 / 16 Questions 1. What explains the fame of leaders? 2. Do these explanations differ with culture?
6 4 / 16 Overview 1. Why should you care about fame? 2. How we measure fame (prominence) 3. What explains fame (initial results)
7 4 / 16 Overview 1. Why should you care about fame? Explains decisions of leaders 2. How we measure fame (prominence) 3. What explains fame (initial results)
8 4 / 16 Overview 1. Why should you care about fame? Explains decisions of leaders 2. How we measure fame (prominence) Importance of Wikipedia articles 3. What explains fame (initial results)
9 4 / 16 Overview 1. Why should you care about fame? Explains decisions of leaders 2. How we measure fame (prominence) Importance of Wikipedia articles 3. What explains fame (initial results) War,...
10 5 / 16 What shapes the decisions of leaders? Tenure (BdM et al. (2005)) Post-tenure fate (Goemans; Chiozza and Goemans) Personal background, experience, age (Horowitz, McDermott and Stam (2005)) Fame (contemporaneous and historical)
11 5 / 16 What shapes the decisions of leaders? Tenure (BdM et al. (2005)) Post-tenure fate (Goemans; Chiozza and Goemans) Personal background, experience, age (Horowitz, McDermott and Stam (2005)) Fame (contemporaneous and historical)
12 Fame in Theories Previous Work Simonton, Michel et. al (2005) Fame in other theories Stam et. al. (Age) (War) (Fame) BdM et. al. (Term Limits) (War) (Fame) Our question? (Fame) 6 / 16
13 What do we mean by Fame? Prominence Name recognition Henry Campbell-Bannerman v Winston Churchill Valence Favorability Adolf Hitler v Winston Churchill. 7 / 16
14 How do we measure prominence? 8 / 16
15 Data leaders Archigos n = 2, 472 years = Wikipedias 10 most viewed article data number of page views page size number of times edited number of editors number of inward links 9 / 16
16 10 / 16 Wikipedias Used Language Views (per day) Articles Users en English 20,927,397 3,884,116 16,341,507 ja Japanese 3,497, , ,843 es Spanish 2,875, ,245 2,131,214 de German 2,787,900 1,368,841 1,382,923 ru Russian 1,887, , ,230 fr French 1,864,612 1,219,020 1,232,356 it Italian 1,281, , ,110 pl Polish 1,070, , ,717 pt Portuguese 972, , ,747 zh Chinese 480, ,145 1,149,239
17 11 / 16 Estimating Prominence Factor model 50 Indicators 5 article attributes 10 languages 11 factors Global factor (G) 10 Language Factors indicators G de en es fr it ja pl pt ru zh dimensions
18 12 / Most Famous Leaders Adolf Hitler Muammar al Gaddafi Joseph Stalin John F. Kennedy George W. Bush Vladimir Lenin Winston Churchill Ronald Reagan Vladimir Putin Benito Mussolini Nelson Mandela Silvio Berlusconi Saddam Hussein Mao Zedong Franklin D. Roosevelt Kim Jong il Fidel Castro Margaret Thatcher Bill Clinton Nicholas II of Russia Mikhail Gorbachev Richard Nixon Charles de Gaulle George H. W. Bush Theodore Roosevelt Francisco Franco Jimmy Carter Wilhelm II, German Emperor Hosni Mubarak Nikita Khrushchev Prominence (Global)
19 Importance of Language Factors 1.0 Variance explained dimension global language 0.0 es pt zh ja it pl ru fr de en Language 13 / 16
20 14 / 16 Explaining Prominence G en ja es de ru fr it pl pt zh War duration + War wins War losses War draws bat death Major Power pecpc growth + Presidential Democracy Autocracy Ungoverned + Civil War duration ntenures + Irregular entry + + Irregular exit + + Bad Post ten Male + Age + Alive Years out + Leader Constant + + +
21 15 / 16 Conclusion To be continued...
22 16 / 16 Wikipedia Demographics Editors (Wikipedia survey) 91% Male Mean age = 32 College or higher educated Computer proficient Viewers (alexa.com) Gender : similar Age : overrepresented, 65+ underrepresented Education : No or some college and underrepresented
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