Lecture Start

Transcription

1 Lecture Start

2 Outline 1. Science, Method & Measurement 2. On Building An Index 3. Correlation & Causality 4. Probability & Statistics 5. Samples & Surveys 6. Experimental & Quasi-experimental Designs 7. Conceptual Models 8. Quantitative Models 9. Complexity & Chaos 10. Recapitulation - Envoi

3 Outline 1. Science, Method & Measurement 2. On Building An Index 3. Correlation & Causality 4. Probability & Statistics 5. Samples & Surveys 6. Experimental & Quasi-experimental Designs 7. Conceptual Models 8. Quantitative Models 9. Complexity & Chaos 10. Recapitulation - Envoi

4 Quantitative Techniques for Social Science Research Lecture # 7: Conceptual Models Ismail Serageldin Alexandria 2012

5 Our World Is One Of Rapid Social Change

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8 AND IN MANY PARTS OF THE WORLD DEATH IS A DAILY AFFAIR

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16 So Let s Design A Conceptual Model Of Social Change

17 A Model of Social Change: Understanding the Dynamics

18 START POSITION CULTURAL ASPECTS VALUES INSTITUTIONS NEW SOCIAL POSITION PROGRESS STAGNATION BREAK DOWN

19 START POSITION CULTURAL ASPECTS VALUES INSTITUTIONS ECONOMIC STRUCTURE NEW SOCIAL POSITION PROGRESS STAGNATION BREAK DOWN

20 START POSITION CULTURAL ASPECTS VALUES INSTITUTIONS SOCIAL STRUCTURE ECONOMIC STRUCTURE NEW SOCIAL POSITION PROGRESS STAGNATION BREAK DOWN

21 START POSITION CULTURAL ASPECTS VALUES INSTITUTIONS SOCIAL STRUCTURE ECONOMIC STRUCTURE NEW SOCIAL POSITION PROGRESS STAGNATION BREAK DOWN

22 START POSITION CULTURAL ASPECTS VALUES INSTITUTIONS SOCIAL STRUCTURE TRANSACTIONS ECONOMIC STRUCTURE NEW SOCIAL POSITION PROGRESS STAGNATION BREAK DOWN

23 START POSITION CULTURAL ASPECTS VALUES INSTITUTIONS SOCIAL STRUCTURE TRANSACTIONS ECONOMIC STRUCTURE SOCIAL CHANGE NEW SOCIAL POSITION PROGRESS STAGNATION BREAK DOWN

24 START POSITION CULTURAL ASPECTS VALUES INSTITUTIONS SOCIAL STRUCTURE TRANSACTIONS ECONOMIC STRUCTURE SOCIAL CHANGE NEW SOCIAL POSITION PROGRESS STAGNATION BREAK DOWN

25 START POSITION CULTURAL ASPECTS VALUES INSTITUTIONS SOCIAL STRUCTURE TRANSACTIONS ECONOMIC STRUCTURE SOCIAL CHANGE NEW SOCIAL POSITION PROGRESS STAGNATION BREAK DOWN

26 START POSITION CULTURAL ASPECTS VALUES INSTITUTIONS SOCIAL STRUCTURE TRANSACTIONS ECONOMIC STRUCTURE SOCIAL CHANGE NEW SOCIAL POSITION PROGRESS STAGNATION BREAK DOWN

27 START POSITION CULTURAL ASPECTS VALUES INSTITUTIONS SOCIAL STRUCTURE TRANSACTIONS ECONOMIC STRUCTURE SOCIAL CHANGE NEW SOCIAL POSITION PROGRESS STAGNATION BREAK DOWN

28 START POSITION CULTURAL ASPECTS VALUES INSTITUTIONS SOCIAL STRUCTURE TRANSACTIONS ECONOMIC STRUCTURE SOCIAL CHANGE NEW SOCIAL POSITION PROGRESS STAGNATION BREAK DOWN

29 START POSITION CULTURAL ASPECTS VALUES INSTITUTIONS SOCIAL STRUCTURE TRANSACTIONS ECONOMIC STRUCTURE SOCIAL CHANGE NEW SOCIAL POSITION PROGRESS STAGNATION BREAK DOWN

30 EXTERNAL INFLUENCES EXTERNAL INFLUENCES START POSITION CULTURAL ASPECTS VALUES INSTITUTIONS SOCIAL STRUCTURE TRANSACTIONS ECONOMIC STRUCTURE SOCIAL CHANGE NEW SOCIAL POSITION PROGRESS STAGNATION BREAK DOWN

31 Within This Process Change is being accelerated External drivers of change are increasingly important The cultural dimension is where and how the mediation with the new and the external occurs Culture cannot be underestimated

32 A Sub-Model Of Cultural Change: Understanding the Dynamics

33 A Three-Tiered Model Explaining Cultural Dynamics and How Cultures Change

34 Intellectual Domain Perceptual Domain Physical Domain

35 Theoretical Ethics Intellectual Domain Perceptual Domain Physical Domain

36 Theoretical Ethics Intellectual Domain Practical Ethics Perceptual Domain Physical Domain

37 Theoretical Ethics Intellectual Domain Practical Ethics Perceptual Domain Social Praxis Physical Domain

38 Theoretical Ethics Intellectual Domain Practical Ethics Perceptual Domain Social Praxis Physical Domain

39 Theoretical Ethics Intellectual Domain Practical Ethics Social Values Perceptual Domain Social Praxis Physical Domain

40 Theoretical Ethics Intellectual Domain Practical Ethics Social Values Perceptual Domain Social Praxis Individual Behavior Physical Domain

41 Theoretical Ethics Intellectual Domain Practical Ethics Social Values Perceptual Domain Social Praxis Individual Behavior Physical Domain

42 Quran Theoretical Ethics Intellectual Domain Practical Ethics Social Values Perceptual Domain Social Praxis Individual Behavior Physical Domain

43 Quran Sunna of the Prophet Theoretical Ethics Intellectual Domain Practical Ethics Social Values Perceptual Domain Social Praxis Individual Behavior Physical Domain

44 Quran Sunna of the Prophet Greek and Latin influences Theoretical Ethics Intellectual Domain Practical Ethics Social Values Perceptual Domain Social Praxis Individual Behavior Physical Domain

45 Quran Sunna of the Prophet Greek and Latin influences Local Influences Theoretical Ethics Intellectual Domain Practical Ethics Social Values Perceptual Domain Social Praxis Individual Behavior Physical Domain

46 Quran Sunna of the Prophet Greek and Latin influences Local Influences Theoretical Ethics Intellectual Domain Practical Ethics Social Values Perceptual Domain Modernizing Influences Social Praxis Individual Behavior Physical Domain

47 Quran Sunna of the Prophet Greek and Latin influences Local Influences Theoretical Ethics Intellectual Domain Practical Ethics Social Values Perceptual Domain Modernizing Influences Social Praxis Individual Behavior Physical Domain

48 Quran Sunna of the Prophet Greek and Latin influences Local Influences Theoretical Ethics Intellectual Domain Practical Ethics Social Values Perceptual Domain Modernizing Influences Social Praxis Individual Behavior Physical Domain

49 Quran Sunna of the Prophet Greek and Latin influences Local Influences Theoretical Ethics Intellectual Domain Practical Ethics Social Values Perceptual Domain Modernizing Influences Physical Change Social Praxis Individual Behavior Physical Domain

50 Quran Sunna of the Prophet Greek and Latin influences Local Influences Theoretical Ethics Intellectual Domain Education Practical Ethics Social Values Perceptual Domain Modernizing Influences Physical Change Social Praxis Individual Behavior Physical Domain

51 Quran Sunna of the Prophet Greek and Latin influences Local Influences Theoretical Ethics Intellectual Domain Mass Media Education Practical Ethics Social Values Perceptual Domain Modernizing Influences Physical Change Social Praxis Individual Behavior Physical Domain

52 New Ideas Quran Sunna of the Prophet Greek and Latin influences Theoretical Ethics Local Influences Intellectual Domain Mass Media Education Practical Ethics Social Values Perceptual Domain Modernizing Influences Physical Change Social Praxis Individual Behavior Physical Domain

53 Transactions and Trust

54 Transactions And Trust

55 EXTERNAL INFLUENCES EXTERNAL INFLUENCES START POSITION CULTURAL ASPECTS VALUES INSTITUTIONS SOCIAL STRUCTURE TRANSACTIONS ECONOMIC STRUCTURE SOCIAL CHANGE NEW SOCIAL POSITION PROGRESS STAGNATION BREAK DOWN

56 Transactions

57 There was outstanding work done on this by Coleman in his magisterial Foundations of Social Theory James S. Coleman ( )

58 Barter Exchange g + s A B g + s

59 Exchange with Promise to Pay g + s A B Time 1 P a P a A B Time 2 g + s

60 Exchange with third party promise to pay g + s A B Time 1 P a g + s B C Time 2 P a P a A C Time 3 g + s

61 Exchange with promise of a Central Bank E P a P a g + s g + s A Central Bank B P b P d D P a P a g + s g + s P a P a C

62 Cashless System with Central Clearinghouse Clearinghouse B g + s C g + s g + s D g + s g + s g + s A E

63 Role of Party Machine in Political Exchange Voters Votes for legislators Money and jobs Legislation Machine Legislation Business Money Votes for reelection Legislators

64 Party Machine as Credit Institution in the Political System Voters Money Votes Machine as a clearinghouse of credit Business Legislation Legislators

65 Transaction involving voters, TV, interest groups and legislative candidates Television Entertainment Performers Entertainment Attention of voters Money Attention of voters Money Voters Votes Promises Money Legislative candidates Access Promises Interest groups

66 Cultural Transactions

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75 Tipping Points

76 Systems crash when you cross Tipping Points

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79 Testing Steel Rods

80 Apply Tension, Pull on them till they break

81 Stress (load) Strain (elongate)

82 Stress (load) Strain (elongate)

83 Stress (load) Strain (elongate)

84 Stress (load) Strain (elongate)

85 Stress (load) Strain (elongate)

86 Stress (load) Strain (elongate)

87 Effectiveness Number of Connections

88 Effectiveness Number of Connections

89 Effectiveness Tipping Point Number of Connections

90 Effectiveness Another Tipping Point? Tipping Point Number of Connections

91 The Problem We are not sure of the shape of the graph Is it the whole graph we are looking at? We don t know where we are on the graph!

92 For example:

93 But we need to start But we have to start somewhere We need the work being done on sustainable indicators now Incomplete knowledge is better than no knowledge at all So lets improve

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95 Purely descriptive models can help in basic understanding of possible causalities and identification of likely intervention points

96 Predictive models are needed for policy analysis. This requires quantification.

97 Quantitative Analysis complements Qualitative analysis and frequently undergirds it.

98 Measuring Trust in Transactions

99 Can we quantify such things as trust? Can we model it?

100 1.0 Trustworthiness and potential loss and potential gain Probability of trustworthiness Confidence mean Lover Friend Brother Potential loss / potential gain

101 Formula for potential Loss/Gain P = chance of receiving gain (the probability that the trustee is trustworthy) L = potential loss (if trustee is untrustworthy) G = potential gain (if trustee is trustworthy) Decision: yes if P is greater than L 1-P G indifferent if P equals L 1-P G no if P is less than L 1-P G

102 Trust in Government

103 Economic growth and trust in Government are closely related Trust in Government x Russia 1995 Czech Republic Growth of per capita GDP (percent per year) x

104 Social Capital and Social Integration and Disintegration

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108 Social Capital and Social Integration and Disintegration

109 Topics for another discussion

110 For Now

111 Are we sinking? Or Swimming?

112 We want everyone swimming

113 We want to all fly together

114 Thank You

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