Opinion Leaders or Opinion Followers? The Effect of Centrality on Susceptibility to Group Influence

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1 Opinion Leaders or Opinion Followers? The Effect of Centrality on Susceptibility to Group Influence Edith Shalev, Technion Israel Institute of Technology Rom Y. Schrift, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania

2 RESEARCH MOTIVATION Influence in markets flows from influencers well connected consumers and opinion leaders - to the crowd. Influencers are not automatic change agents. They carefully choose which products and messages to communicate to their audience. Do influencers judge products and ideas independently? Or are they influenced by others opinions? When would a central consumer think more favorably about a brand if it were popular among their group members? decline a brand endorsement request because his followers prefer the competing brand?

3 How does centrality affect susceptibility to group influence? BIG Your Coffee RESEARCH Shop QUESTION 3

4 CENTRALITY A central (marginal) consumer holds a relatively large (small) number of social ties in a specified group. The central is considered influential Hinz, Skiera, Barrot, & Becker (2011); Goldenberg, Han, Lehmann, & Hong (2009) Centrality comes in all sorts and shapes (degree, betweenness, closeness) Herein, we focus on the psychological states that emanate from degree centrality in small to medium-sized groups.

5 WHAT IS ALREADY KNOWN? The central is resistant to influence. (Hu and Van den Bulte 2014; Iyengar et al. 2015) The central is susceptible to influence. (Lee, Cotte and Noseworthy 2010) No association between centrality and susceptibility to influence. (Iyengar, Van den Bulte, and Valente 2011) The literature provides mixed findings and no evidence for a specific psychological process

6 Proposed Model: The Dual Effect of Centrality on Susceptibility to Group Influence ( SGI ) Group Identification Centrality Susceptibility to group Influence (SGI) Self Perceived Status

7 Centrality, Self Perceived Status, and SGI Self-perceived status: the individual s belief that they rank high in the social hierarchy Self perceived status= agentic orientation Inhibition of submissive behaviors Enhanced self importance Rucker et al Centrality Group Identification SGI Self perceived status= confidence Autonomy, freedom from social pressures Belleza, Gino, and Keinan 2014; Iyengar et al Self Perceived Status Higher self perceived status reduces susceptibility to influence

8 Centrality, Group Identification, and SGI Centrality -> group identification Individuals identify with groups that satisfy their needs. (Festinger et al. 1950; Tajfel & Turner, 2001) The group provides a greater sense of belonging to the central than to the marginal. (Baumeister & Leary, 1995; McFerran & Argo, 2014) Centrality Group Identification Self Perceived Status SGI group identification -> SGI People conform to norms of groups they identify with. (Escalas & Bettman, 2005; Deutsch & Gerard 1955) People reject norms of dissociative groups. (Berger & Heath; White & Dahl 2006) Higher group identification increases susceptibility to influence

9 DATA Empirical Your Coffee Shop Section 9

10 Studies Layout Study Testing Context SGI measure 1 The effect of centrality on group identification, self-perceived status 2 and SGI 3 4 The moderating role of cognitive focus in the effect of centrality on SGI The moderating role of group setting in the effect of centrality on SGI Walking group Online review community Social club Tennis club Intent to adopt a group trend Divergence from average user rating of a reviewed movie Self reported SGI Convergence to group opinion

11 Study 1: Overview and Design Study aims Overview Participants and design Examine whether: (1) Centrality increases group identification AND self-perceived status (2) Group identification decreases while self-perceived status increases SGI Participants imagined being members in a walking group and indicated the likelihood of adopting a recent group trend anti branding t-shirts. Greater intentions to purchase the trendy t-shirt would indicate greater SGI. N = 104 online panelists from Prolific Academic (51 women; Mage= 25.96, SDage = 4.73) Random assignment to one of two centrality conditions (low vs. high). Centrality manipulation approximately 30 members in RACERS... you are one of the most [least] connected members in your group; you have more than a dozen friends [only have one friend] on RACERS.

12 Study 1: Sample Items from Measures Group Identification Self perceived status Group trend information SGI: intent to adopt a group trend I identify with members of RACERS. RACERS is attractive. I have high status among RACERS. I am confident about my social standing within RACERS. Many group members practice walking while wearing 'Anti Branding' dry-fit shirts with slogans aimed at mocking well-known brands. How likely would you be to purchase an anti-branding t-shirt?

13 Results: Intent to purchase the group-trendy T-shirt.54** Group identification Positive indirect effect via group identification Centrality NS Purchase intent * p <.05; ** p <.01 Self-perceived status -.82** Negative indirect effect via selfperceived status

14 Study 1: Key Findings and Conclusion Centrality increases both self-perceived status and group identification. Centrality exerts a negative indirect effect on SGI via self-perceived status and a positive indirect effect via group identification. The opposing effects of self-perceived status and group identification cancel each other. Analyzing the data without considering the distinctive paths of status and group identification does not tell the whole story - yields a null net effect of centrality on SGI. Practitioners should consider both status and group identification effects when studying the effect of centrality on SGI.

15 Study 2: Overview and Design Study aim Part I: Centrality manipulation Part II: Shortcuts Participants explore the robustness of the findings and extend these to context involving online communities Participants write about a real social incident in which they were either central or non-central. Participants watch and rate a short film on ShortCuts a fictitious online review website. The average user rating ('AUR') of the film appears on top of the video display. AUR is counterbalanced to reflect either low or high rating by other users. SGI is the deviation of an individual s rating from the AUR. N = 310 online panelists from Amazon Mechanical Turk (152 women; Mage= 30.65, SDage = 7.89)

16 Study 2: SGI Measure = - AUR-Personal Rating AUR 1,401 Shortcutters have given XXX an average rating of 5.21 OR 8.81 (out of 10) Movie XXX running here Now it is your turn to rate the movie. Out of 10, how would you rate XXX? Ratings range from 1 = Disliked very much to 10 = Liked very much Personal rating

17 Results: The Effect of Centrality on Group Identification and Self-Perceived Status * p <.05; ** p < ** Low Centrality 5.74 GROUP IDENTIFICATION High Centrality 5.3 ** 3.18 SUBJECTIVE STATUS

18 Results: (minus) Deviation from AUR.23** Group identification Positive indirect effect via group identification Centrality NS SGI (- deviation) * p <.05; ** p <.01 Self perceived status -.44** Negative indirect effect via subjective status

19 Study 2: Findings and Limitations As in study 1, centrality increases both self-perceived status and group identification. As in study 1, centrality exerts a negative indirect effect on SGI via self-perceived status and a positive indirect effect via group identification. Mediation analysis limits the researcher s ability to draw conclusive causal inferences because the mediators are measured rather than manipulated. Studies 3 and 4 set to test the moderating role of the individual s reflection on status versus group identification.

20 Study 3: Overview and Design Theoretical reasoning Part I: focus manipulation Part II: Social Club vignette Participants If the net effect of centrality on SGI depends on the cumulative effects of selfperceived status and group identification, then centrality should generate distinct effects on SGI when one of the processes overpowers the other. When one is focused on status, centrality will decrease SGI. Conversely, when one is focused on group identification, centrality will increase SGI Participants wrote briefly about the importance of either status or group identification for individuals in social groups Participants imagined being either central or non-central members in a social club. Participants indicated whether they would remain authentic to themselves or yield to group pressures using an 8-item scale. SGI is the mean score on the scale. N = 227 online panelists from Amazon Mechanical Turk (104 women; Mage= 34.91, SDage = 10.70)

21 SGI Results: The Effect of Centrality and Focus on SGI 6 Low Centrality High Centrality Group Identification Focus Status focus + p <.10

22 Study 3: Summary When participants focused on the importance of status, centrality decreased SGI. When participants focused on group identification, the opposite pattern was obtained: centrality increased SGI. Next: can the social settings elicit status vs. group identification goals, and lead to opposite effects of centrality on SGI, as observed in study 3?

23 Study 4: Overview and Design Overview and predictions Tennis Club vignette Does the social context moderate the effect of centrality on SGI? A competitive setting should give rise to status reflections, and lead to a negative effect of centrality on SGI. Conversely, a collective setting should heighten group identity considerations, and lead to an overall positive effect of centrality on SGI. Participants imagined being either central or non-central members in a tennis club. The tennis club was described as either competitive or as collaborative. Participants N = 282 participants in a university behavioral lab (189 women; Mage= 24.17, SDage = 9.81)

24 Study 4: SGI Measure (Sample Item) Group opinion counterbalanced The social club will soon celebrate its anniversary, and members need to decide how to celebrate. Few members had suggested two options: a traditional picnic or a night-club that will be closed for the event. So far, most of the members prefer the traditional picnic [nightclub event]. How would you prefer to celebrate the social club's anniversary? SGI as agreement with group opinion picnic nightclub When the majority prefers the picnic [nightclub], SGI = 6 [2]

25 Study 4: Group Setting Manipulation Competitive condition Collaborative condition Unlike social tennis clubs, TESA is all about performance. Members take professional private lessons and practice frequently to enhance their tennis skills. Members performance is closely monitored and the top players are listed on the Top 10 board every month. Tournaments are held all year round, and great importance is assigned to members rankings and status. Unlike competitive tennis clubs, TESA is all about social activity. Members jointly take group classes and attend social events to enjoy the company of each other. Members support of the club is highly appreciated, and the club provides complimentary wearable items for members who wish to express their spirit. Social events are held all year round, and great importance is assigned to group identity and sense of belonging.

26 SGI Results: The Effect of Centrality and Group Setting on SGI Low Centrality High Centrality * Collaborative setting Competitive setting + p <.10; * p <.05

27 Main Takeaways Conclusions Your Coffee Shop and Implications 27

28 Conclusions Centrality exerts a dual effect on SGI. On one hand, centrality increases self-perceived status, which decreases SGI. On the other hand, centrality increases group identification, which heightens SGI. Group identification and self-perceived status effects may cancel each other out, resulting in a null net effect of centrality on SGI (Studies 1 and 2). However, under predictable conditions, one effect may prevail over the other, resulting in a notable effect of centrality on SGI (Studies 3 and 4).

29 What Does It Mean for Marketers? Adjust your expectations from the central. There are boundaries to the central s influence, and under certain conditions, the central will be a follower rather than an influencer. For example, central consumers may avoid expressing opinions or endorsing brands that exhibit low fit with the community's values and norms, especially in communities that do not tolerate overt status signaling. You may shape the flow of influence. Marketers and policy makers may affect the influence flow from the group to the central by focusing consumers on status versus group identification. Harness the central s SGI to overcome the conversion challenge. With the flourishing of influencer-marketing, central consumers receive numerous brand endorsement requests and carefully select among them. It may be easier to turn a central consumer into an influencer, by underlining the fit between the brand's traits and the community's values.

30 Questions? Contact Edith Shalev or Rom Y. Schrift Your Coffee Shop 30