Why Mixed Effects Models?
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1 Why Mixed Effects Models?
2 Mixed Effects Models Recap/Intro Three issues with ANOVA Multiple random effects Categorical data Focus on fixed effects What mixed effects models do Random slopes Link functions Iterative fitting
3 Problem One: Multiple Random Effects Most studies sample both subjects and items Subject 1 Subject 2 Knight story Monkey story
4 Problem One: Crossed Random Effects Most studies sample both subjects and items Typically, subjects crossed with items Each subject sees a version of each item May also be only partially crossed Each subject sees only some of the items
5 ...or Hierarchical Random Effects Most studies sample both subjects and items Typically, subjects crossed with items May also have one nested within the other (hierarchical) e.g. autobiographical memory How to incorporate this into model?
6 Problem One: Multiple Random Effects Why do we care about items, anyway? #1: Investigate robustness of effects across items Concern is that effect could be driven by just 1 or 2 items might not really be what we thought it was Psycholinguistics: View is that we studying language too, not just people Other areas of psychology have not tended to care about this Note: Including items in a model doesn't really confirm that the effect is robust across items. It's still possible to get a reliable effect driven by a small number of items. But it allows you investigate how variable the effect is across items and why different items might be differentially influenced.
7 Problem One: Multiple Random Effects Why do we care about items? #2: Violations of independence A BIG ISSUE Suppose Amélie and Zhenghan see items A & B but Tuan sees items C & D Likely that Amélie's results are more like Zhenghan's than like Tuan's But ANOVA assumes observations independent Even a small amount of dependency can lead to spurious results (Quene & van den Bergh, 2008) Dependency you didn't account for makes the variance look smaller than it actually is C A D B
8 What Constitutes an Item? Items assumed to be independently sampled sampled from population of relevant items 2 related words / sentences not independently sampled The coach knew you missed practice. The coach knew that you missed practice. Not a coincidence both are in your experiment! Should be considered the same item But 2 unrelated things can be different items ALL POSSIBLE DISCOURSES
9 Problem One: Crossed Random Effects ANOVA solution Subjects analysis: Average over multiple items for each subject Items analysis: Average over multiple subjects for each item Two sets of results Sometime combined with min F' An approximation of true min F Note: not real data or statistical tests F 1 = 18.31, p <.001 F 2 = 22.10, p <.0001
10 Problem One: Crossed Random Effects Some debate on how accurate min F' is Scott will admit to not be fully read up on this since I came in after people started switching to mixed effects models Somewhat less relevant now that we can use mixed effects models instead Note: not real data or statistical tests F 1 = 18.31, p <.001 F 2 = 22.10, p <.0001
11 Mixed Effects Models Recap/Intro Three issues with ANOVA Multiple random effects Categorical data Focus on fixed effects What mixed effects models do Random slopes Link functions Iterative fitting
12 Problem Two: Categorical Data ANOVA assumes our response is continuous RT: 833 ms But, we often want to look at categorical data 'Lightning hit the church. vs. The church was hit by lightning. Choice of syntactic structure Item recalled or not Region fixated in eye-tracking experiment
13 Problem One: Two: Categorical Data Traditional solution: Analyze proportions Violates assumptions of ANOVA Among other issues: ANOVA assumes normal distribution, which has infinite tails But proportions are clearly bounded Model could predict impossible values like 110% But 0 proportions 1
14 Problem One: Two: Categorical Data Traditional solution: Analyze proportions Violates assumptions of ANOVA Among other issues: ANOVA assumes normal distribution, which has infinite tails But proportions are clearly bounded Model could predict impossible values like 110% But 0 proportions 1
15 Problem One: Two: Categorical Data Traditional solution: Analyze proportions Violates assumptions of ANOVA Can lead to: Spurious effects (Type I error) Missing a true effects (Type II error)
16 Problem One: Two: Categorical Data Transformations improve the situation but don't solve it Empirical logit is good (Jaeger, 2008) Arcsine less so Situation is worse for very high or very low proportions (Jaeger, 2008).30 to.70 are OK
17 Problem One: Two: Categorical Data Why can't we just use logistic regression? Predict if each trial's response is in category A or category B This is essentially what we will end up doing But, if we are looking at things at a trial-bytrial basis... Need to control for the different items on each trial Problem One again!
18 Mixed Effects Models Recap/Intro Three issues with ANOVA Multiple random effects Categorical data Focus on fixed effects What mixed effects models do Random slopes Link functions Iterative fitting
19 Problem Three: Focus on Fixed Effects ANOVA doesn't characterize differences between subjects or items The bird that they spotted was a... ENDING Predictable Unpredictable MEAN READING TIME 283 ms 309 ms 26 ms We just have a mean effect No info. about how much it varies across participants or items cardinal pitohui
20 Problem Three: Focus on Fixed Effects Can try to account for some of this with an ANCOVA But not typically done And would have to be done separately for participants and items (Problem One again) Predictable Unpredictable MEAN 283 ms 309 ms 26 ms
21 Power of subjects analysis! Power of items analysis! Mixed Effects Models Recap/Intro Three issues with ANOVA Multiple random effects Categorical data Focused on fixed effects Captain MLM to the rescue! What mixed effects models do Random slopes Link functions Iterative fitting
22 Mixed Effects Models to the Rescue! ANOVA: Unit of analysis is cell mean MLM: Unit of analysis is individual trial!
23 Mixed Models to the Rescue! Look at individual trials Model outcome using regression RT Semantic categorization: Is it a dinosaur? = + Subject + Item Prime? Problem One solved!
24 Mixed Models to the Rescue! This means you will need your data formatted differently than you would for an ANOVA Each trial gets its own line
25 Mixed Models to the Rescue! Is this useful for what we care about? Stereotypical view of regression is that it's about predicting values In experimental settings we more typically want to know if Variable X matters Yes! We can test individual effects: Do they contribute to the model? e.g. does priming predict something about RT? RT = + + Prime? Subject Jason Item
26 Mixed Effects Models Recap/Intro Three issues with ANOVA Multiple random effects Categorical data Focus on fixed effects What mixed effects models do Random slopes Link functions Iterative fitting
27 88 ms Fixed vs. Random Slopes Fixed Slope: Same for all participants/items Random Slope: Can vary by participants/items RT = + + Prime? 26 ms + Laurel Stego.
28 315 ms Fixed vs. Random Slopes Fixed Slope: Same for all participants/items Random Slope: Can vary by participants/items RT = + + Prime? 26 ms Laurel Dr. L Example: Some items may show a larger priming effect than others +
29 Fixed vs. Random Slopes Fixed Slope: Same for all participants/items Random Slope: Can vary by participants/items Can also test what explains variation RT = + + Prime? 26 ms Laurel Dr. L e.g. Adding lexical frequency to the model may account for variation in priming effect + 15 ms + Lex.Freq. 300 ms
30 Fixed vs. Random Slopes Fixed Slope: Same for all participants/items Random Slope: Can vary by participants/items Can also test what explains variation RT = + + Prime? 26 ms Laurel Dr. L Problem Three Solved! + 15 ms + Lex.Freq. 300 ms
31 Mixed Effects Models Recap/Intro Three issues with ANOVA Multiple random effects Categorical data Focus on fixed effects What mixed effects models do Random slopes Link functions Iterative fitting
32 Link Functions Specifies how to connect predictors to the outcome RT ms Prime? Every model has one... Subject...sometimes, just the identity function With Gaussian (normal) data Item
33 Link Functions Specifies how to connect predictors to the outcome Accuracy + + Yes/No Prime? Subject Item For binomial (yes/no) outcomes: Model log odds to predict outcome Problem Two solved!
34 Link Functions Default link function for binomial data is logit (log odds) Odds: p(yes)/p(no) or p(yes)/[1-p(yes)] No upper bound, but lower bound at 0 Log Odds: ln(odds) Now unbounded at both ends Can also use probit Based on cumulative distribution function of normal distribution Very highly correlated with logit; almost always give you same results as logit Probit assumes slightly fewer hits at low end of distribution & slightly more hits at high end
35 Mixed Effects Models Recap/Intro Three issues with ANOVA Multiple random effects Categorical data Focus on fixed effects What mixed effects models do Random slopes Link functions Iterative fitting
36 One Caveat... Where do model results come from? (Answer: When a design matrix and a data matrix really love each other...)
37 One Caveat... Fitting ANOVA / linear regression has easy solution b = (X'X) -1 X'Y A few matrix multiplications a computer can do easily A closed form solution Like a beta machine you put your data in and automatically get the One True Model out
38 One Caveat... MEMs requires iteration Check various sets of betas until you find the best one R does this for you An estimation Not mathematically guaranteed to be best fit The best model: The one that smiles with its eyes Complicated models take longer to fit If too many parameters relative to data, might completely fail to converge (find the best set of betas) Scott's only experience with this is with multiple random slopes of interactions
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