ARUBA RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS AND OUTLOOK. Presented by Jane R. Semeleer President Centrale Bank van Aruba May 30, 2011

Transcription

1 ARUBA RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS AND OUTLOOK Presented by Jane R. Semeleer President Centrale Bank van Aruba May 30, 2011

2 STRUCTURE 1. National economy 2. International economy 3. Outlook 2

3 CENTRALE BANK VAN ARUBA 1. National economy 3

4 Turnover tax (BBO) revenue Nominal* March 2011: Afl. 7.4 million (Δ +Afl. 0.8 million or percent) Year to date (Feb11 Apr11): Afl million (Δ +Afl. 2.0 million or percent) In part due to tourism * Corrected for the rate reduction as of January 2010 and incidental receipts 4

5 Wage tax revenue Nominal March 2011: Afl million (Δ +Afl. 2.5 million or percent) Year to date: Afl million (Δ +Afl. 8.8 million or percent) 5

6 month average Inflation 2011: April: 0.8 percent, 0.2 percentage point higher than in 2010 In percent Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec April 2011: Electricity, gas and other fuel: +0.6 Actual rentals for housing: +0.5 Operations of personal transport equipment: +0.4 Clothing: 0.4 Purchase of vehicle: 0.2 Food: 0.1 6

7 In percent End of period Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Inflation Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2011: April: 3.5 percent, 1.6 percentage points lower than in 2010 April 2011: Operations of personal transport equipment: +1.2 (Gasoline +1.1; Diesel +0.1) Electricity, gas and other fuel: +0.9 Actual rentals for housing: +0.5 Water supply and miscellaneous services relating to the dwelling: +0.3 Food:

8 Core inflation (12 months) In percent Excluding food & energy January April 2011: On average 2.0 percentage points lower than in 2010 April 2011: 0.4 percent 8

9 Tourism In thousand Stay over visitors In thousand Cumulative percentage change Cumulative percentage change Jan Jan Apr 2011: +5.3 percent (= 1,215 Oct 2010: +5.2 percent more visitors) Visitors nights

10 Tourism 90 Occupancy rate 475 Average daily rate In percent In Afl Occupancy rate increased by 2.1 percentage points to 78.4 percent (Jan Aug 2010) ADR went down by Afl or 1.5 percenttoafl (jan Aug 2010) 10

11 Tourism In Afl Revenue per available room Nominal hotel room tax revenue/ Hotel levy RevPar grew by Afl or 5.5 percent to Afl (Jan Aug 2010) Hotel room tax went up by Afl. 9.3 million or 60.7 percent (Jan Apr 2011) 11

12 Tourism 125 Cruise visitors 730 Tourism receipts In thousand In Afl I II III IV January April 2011 change: percent (= 40,634 more passengers compared to 2010) January December 2011 change: Afl million or +2.3 percent 12

13 Tourism s Tourism receipts (Commercial banks and CBA) March 2011: +Afl million or +8.5 percent, compared to March 2010 Year to date 2011: +Afl million or +6.1 percent (compared to the same period of 2010). 13

14 2. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY Caribbean 30 Growth in stay over and cruise tourism in 2010 in selected Caribbean countries and the Caribbean as a whole (percentage change) Cancun & Cozumel 20 St. Martin Bahamas Cruise tourism 10 Barbados Caribbean ArubaJamaica Curacao 30 Stay over tourism 14

15 Utilities 630 Water consumption (household) 30 Electricity consumption (household) In thousand m In million KWh

16 Utilities 970 Gas consumption (household) 1,570 Container transport In thousand m In quantity of containers 1,470 1,370 1,270 1,170 1,

17 Utilities 270 Gasoline price 220 Diesel price In cents per liter In cents per liter

18 Oil 1,600 Export of refined oil 2,000 Import of crude oil 1,400 1,750 1,200 1,500 1, ,250 1, I II III IV I II III IV 18

19 Construction 310 Number of construction permits granted 450 Value of construction permits granted I II III IV 0 I II III IV

20 Construction Total cement imported Value of construction permits granted 22, , , In thousand Kg 16,500 14,500 12,500 10,500 8,500 6, ,500 I II III IV 300 I II III IV

21 3,300 3,200 3,100 3,000 Monetary developments Net domestic assets Money supply 2,000 1,900 1,800 1,700 1,600 2,900 1,500 April 2011 December 2010: +Afl million or +2.5 percent April 2011 December 2010: +Afl million or +2.3 percent 21

22 Monetary developments 1,600 1,500 1,400 Net foreign assets April 2011 December 2010: +Afl million or +2.7 percent 1,300 22

23 Monetary developments 15 Net foreign assets 10 In percent I II III IV I II III IV I 23

24 Monetary developments 2,850 Total credit according to CMR 2,800 2,750 2,700 2,650 2,600 Jan 09 Feb 09 Mar 09 Apr 09 May 09 Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09 Oct 09 Nov 09 Dec 09 Jan 10 Feb 10 Mar 10 Apr 10 May 10 Jun 10 Jul 10 Aug 10 Sep 10 Oct 10 Nov 10 Dec 10 Jan 11 Feb 11 Mar 11 Apr 11 Table: credit growth in percentages Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Business loans Housing mortgages Consumer credit Overall credit Excl. government bonds April 2011 December 2010: Afl million or 0.9 percent 24

25 Monetary developments 1,125 1,100 1,075 1,050 Commercial loans Housing mortgages April 2011 December 2010: Afl million or 1.8 percent April 2011 December 2010: +Afl. 9.8 million or +1.1 percent 25

26 Monetary developments Consumer credit Car loans April 2011 December 2010: Afl million or 2.1 percent April 2011 December 2010: Afl. 0.1 million or 0.1 percent 26

27 Monetary developments Interest rates In percent Jan 09 Feb 09 Mar 09 Apr 09 May 09 Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09 Oct 09 Nov 09 Dec 09 Jan 10 Feb 10 Mar 10 Apr 10 May 10 Jun 10 Jul 10 Aug 10 Sep 10 Oct 10 Nov 10 Dec 10 Jan 11 Feb 11 Mar 11 Apr 11 Weighted interest on deposits Weighted interest on loans Weighted interest on T bills Advance rate 27

28 Monetary developments Source: Caribbean Economic Performance Report, May 2011 CARIBBEAN CENTRE FOR MONEY AND FINANCE 28

29 Public finance Government revenue and grants I II III IV January December: 2009: Afl. 1,108.9 million 2010: Afl. 1,183.8 million ( +Afl million or +6.8 percent, compared to the same period of 2009) Excl. Valero incidental receipt: Afl ( Afl million or 11.2 percent). This decline is more partly explained by an Afl million drop in the turnover tax, mainly as a consequence of the reduction of the BBO rate from 3 percent to 1.5 percent and to a lesser extent a decrease in economic activities. 29

30 Public finance Government expenditure I II III IV January December: 2009: Afl. 1,229.1 million 2010: Afl. 1,358.3 million ( +Afl million or percent, compared to the same period of 2009) Wages: +Afl million Goods and services: +Afl million Interest: +Afl million Transfer to AZV: +Afl million Items n.i.e.: +Afl million 30

31 Public finance Government deficit ( ) January December: 2009: Afl million 2010: Afl million ( Afl million or 28.8 percent, compared to the same period of 2009) Excl. Valero incidental receipt: Afl ( Afl million or percent) I II III IV

32 Public finance Government deficit ( ) including change in unmet financial requirements January December: 2009: Afl million 2010: Afl million ( Afl million or 16.0 percent, compared to the same period of 2009) Excl. Valero incidental receipt: Afl ( Afl million or percent) I II III IV

33 Public finance 2,400 Outstanding government debt (End of period) December: 2009: Afl. 2,222.9 million 2, : Afl. 2,377.8 million 2,300 2,250 2,200 2,150 ( +Afl million or +7.0 percent, compared to the same quarter 2009) In percent of GDP: December 2009: 49.6 percent 2,100 December 2010: 55.2 percent 2,050 2, I 2008 II 2008 III 2008 IV 2009 I 2009 II 2009 III 2009 IV 2010 I 2010 II 2010 III 2010 IV ( +5.6 percentage points, compared to the same period of 2009) 33

34 Balance of payments Current account total economy I II III IV January December: 2009: +Afl million 2010: Afl million ( Afl million compared to 2009) Goods: Afl. 1,074.6 million Services: +Afl million Income: Afl million Current transfers: +Afl million

35 Balance of payments Capital and financial account total economy I II III IV January December: 2009: Afl. 5.1 million 2010: +Afl million +Afl million compared to 2009: Capital account: Afl million Financial account: +Afl million Direct investment: +Afl million Portfolio investment: +Afl million Financial derivatives: +Afl. 1.7 million Other investment: +Afl million 35

36 Balance of payments Current account Non oil sector January December: 2009: Afl million 2010: +Afl million +Afl million compared to 2009: Goods: +Afl million Services: +Afl million Income: Afl million Current transfers: +Afl. 8.7 million I II III IV

37 Balance of payments Capital and financial account Non oil sector I II III IV January December: 2009: +Afl million 2010: Afl million Afl million compared to 2009: Capital account: Afl million Financial account: Afl million Direct investment: Afl million Portfolio investment: +Afl million Financial derivatives: +Afl. 1.7 million Other investment: Afl million 37

38 Balance of payments Overall balance of payments I II III IV January December: 2009: +Afl million 2010: Afl million ( Afl million compared to the same period of 2009) Current account: Afl million Capital and financial account: +Afl million Items not yet classified: +Afl

39 Balance of payments 13 Merchandise coverage ratio (12 month average) 7 Current account coverage ratio (12 month average) In months In months I II III IV 3 I II III IV December: 2009: 11.3 months 2010: 12.4 months December: 2009: 5.9 months 2010: 6.3 months 39

40 CENTRALE BANK VAN ARUBA 2. International economy 40

41 2. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY Caribbean 6 Real GDP growth of Caribbean countries In percent Aruba Bahamas Barbados Belize EC Currency Union Guyana Haiti Jamaica Netherland Antilles Suriname Trinidad & Tobago 41

42 2. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY World 115 Oil prices (WTI) 2.80 Euro exchange rate (Period average) 2.70 In US$ per barrel In Afl : April: +US$ or percent, compared to same period : April: +Afl or +7.7 percent, compared to same period

43 2. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY US economy 80 Consumer confidence 117 US index of leading economic indicators (2004=100) Index 65 Index April: 2010: : 69.8 March: 2010: :

44 CENTRALE BANK VAN ARUBA 3. Outlook 44

45 3. OUTLOOK Gross domestic product Percentage change Nominal GDP Real GDP 45

46 3. OUTLOOK In thousand Population Percentage change Inflation (12 month) In percent of labor force Unemployment In percentage points Inflation differential with the USA

47 3. OUTLOOK Stay over visitors Tourism nights Percentage change Percentage change

48 3. OUTLOOK Government deficit ( ) Incl. changes in unmet financing requirements ,750 2,500 2,250 2,000 Government debt 2, , , , Government debt to GDP ratio In percent

49 CENTRALE BANK VAN ARUBA THANK YOU 49