Technical meeting 4-6 December 2013 Beijing

Transcription

1 Technical meeting 4-6 December 2013 Beijing Review on cost and financial implications of HPAI vaccination in countries applying HPAI vaccination Jan Hinrichs, Animal Health Economist, FAO Bangkok

2 Overview HPAI vaccination cost examples Public sector mass vaccination campaigns HVT-AI in hatchery Cost-benefit of HVT-AI Poultry production systems What protection coverage can be achieved? Financial incentives, trade offs and alternatives to HPAI vaccination Conclusions

3 Resource requirement & planning Vaccination cost model developed in MS Excel for planning and monitoring: No. of vaccinators required per campaign? Cold chain investment costs? Costs of delivery per bird, per year,... Investment cost

4 Viet Nam Mass Vaccination Campaign Costs USD 21 million per year in early years (2005 onwards) to vaccinate about 160 million poultry Initial investment costs in cold chain 250 million vaccinations in backyard flocks at USD 0.037/shot Post-vaccination surveillance results showed 33% - 72% protection levels after one month

5 Backyard Poultry Vaccination Campaign in Indonesia Operational research project was implemented from July 2008 to June 2009 Four campaigns with initial and booster vaccination 722 villages (360 villages of AI vaccination and 362 villages of AI and ND vaccinations) in three provinces and 16 districts

6 Backyard Poultry Vaccination Campaign in Indonesia (2) USD 2.6 million total cost Average costs of USD 11 per 100 shots 1,088 vaccinators were involved per campaign and vaccinated 182 birds per vaccinator and day Item Per round Per 100 shots Investment cost 74, Recurrent cost 245, Total 319,

7 Results/Lessons learned 1-2 month after vaccination campaign 33.1% of about 18,000 blood samples with HI titre >=16 Many farmers were not sure whether vaccine would kill their birds Cold chain required substantial development District governments needed significant support for vaccine distribution to the village level

8 Vaccination Coverage What coverage can potentially be achieved with routine vaccination delivered through campaigns?

9 Potential vaccination coverage with campaigns Production system Broiler Broiler chicken (crossbred) Prod. cycle length (days) Eligible days for 1 shot (days) Flock coverage with 2 shots (%) Duration after 2 shots to achieve 100% of flocks naïve % % 113

10 Vaccination Coverage Backyard Sector A maximum vaccination coverage of 52% of all backyard birds can be achieved with a two shot vaccination campaign in which 80% of all chicken older than 4 weeks are caught for an initial vaccination and a booster shot 14 days later. Vaccination coverage would fall to 19% within 17 weeks. Source: Taylor, N populations dynamics simulation

11 HVT-AI Vaccination Costs Cost data collected via semi-structured interview of hatchery in Egypt HVT-AI vaccine is exclusively distributed by the vaccine producer CEVA CEVA includes all required services in the HVT-AI vaccine price: Vaccination machine (if more than 2 million doses per year are purchased, otherwise a manual vaccinating crew is provided with potential extra charge of 25 EGP/1,000 DOCs) Training Liquid nitrogen storage Needles

12 HVT-AI Vaccination Costs (2) Vaccination machine has a capacity of 3,000 DOCs per hour AI vaccination of DOCs with a vaccination machine can result in a maximum of 2% mortality losses, If vaccinators are well trained, losses should be close to 0%.

13 Total 5.52 Cost item HVT-AI vaccination costs in Egypt Vaccinator supervision USD/100 shots Reference/Description 0.01 EGP1,200/month, 7 hours veterinarian supervision of 6 vaccinators Vaccinator 0.02 EGP700/month 6 vaccinators and machines, 7 hours for 130,000 DOCs Vaccine 4.35 EGP600/2,000 dose vial DOC losses % mortality at interviewed hatchery EGP5.25/DOC

14 Inactivated HPAI Vaccination Costs CEVA data on required inputs for inactivated HPAI vaccination was used to calculated inactivated HPAI vaccination costs Vaccination of 4,500 growers per day by one vaccinator and two assistants in a layer chicken farm is assumed A vaccinator would visit the farm to administer the vaccine

15 Inac. HPAI vaccination costs in Egypt 17.5 EGP needle, 35 EGP canula one needle used Cost item USD/100 Reference/Description shots 460 EGP syringe, 20 vaccinations per month, Multidose Syringe 0.01 usable for 6 months Needle 0.17 per batch per day Vaccine 3.05 EGP 2,000/10,000 doses, 5% spoilage Vaccinator 0.22 EGP 15/1,000 chicks Vaccinator 0.44 EGP 100 transportation, EGP 35 food, transportation & food Assistants salary and vaccinator transportation, food 0.21 EGP 100 transportation, EGP 35 food, EGP 700/22 daily salary for two staff Bird losses % mortality EGP 5.25 chick costs, 0.2 kg feed at EGP 4.13/kg, EGP 0.3 other vaccinations

16 Cost-Benefit of HVT-AI HVT-AI vaccination of DOCs with a vaccination machine is compared to manual HPAI vaccination of grower chicken in a layer farm. Developing a partial budget is an ideal methodology to assess the financial impact of small changes in the production process of farms.

17 Partial budget, HVT-AI, layer chicken, Egypt Benefit Increased Revenue (USD/100 shots) Reduced Cost Total benefit (USD/100 shots) Cost Increased Cost (USD/100 shots) HVT-AI price difference to inactivated HPAI 1.2% point higher mortality with HVT-AI vaccination, saved feed and vaccine costs Foregone Revenue 5 inactivated HPAI vaccination in layer chicken replaced by one HVT-AI and one inactivated HPAI vaccination Lower labour costs with HVT-AI vaccination No needle and syringe costs for hatchery with CEVA vaccine Total cost in USD/100 shots

18 Cost-Benefit of HVT-AI (2) The benefits of HVT-AI vaccination of layer DOCs in Egyptian hatcheries are higher than the costs compared to inactivated HPAI vaccination. The largest cost saving is resulting from the replacement of 3 inactivated HPAI vaccinations in the live cycle of a layer chicken. Assuming this provides the same protection level!

19 Broiler vaccination Risk of outbreak and economic loss highest close to marketing time Relatively high cost to continuously supply live bird market with immunized broilers Market hygiene interventions and rest days seem to be more effective in disease control

20 Financial Trade Offs Vaccination is only one out of several available risk reduction measures People try to use minimal cost disease control measure Need to prioritize the use of scarce resources Money spent on vaccination is not available for other control measures Compare vaccination costs with other control measures with similar disease control contribution

21 Financial Trade Offs (2) HVT-AI vaccination costs for 1,000 bird broiler flock owner in Egypt amount to USD 55.2 (HVT-AI plus inactivated HPAI booster: USD 99) Simple improvements such as purchase and use of cleaning and disinfection equipment may cost less and have an equal risk reduction effect

22 Financial Trade Offs (3) HVT-AI vaccination costs to supply a live bird market with a daily trade volume of 1,000 vaccinated broilers would amount to USD 20,148/year (HVT-AI plus inactivated HPAI booster USD 36,077/year) Market hygiene improvements may cost less and have an equal human infection risk reduction effect

23 Financial Incentives Incentive to use any control measure at all mainly depends on: Perception of flock infection risk Value at risk of loss Costs and effectiveness of the control measure

24 Financial Incentives (cont.) From poultry owner perspective HPAI vaccination can be compared to an insurance scheme Vaccination costs = insurance premium Production value at risk = insured amount Vaccination cost Value at risk = Break even outbreak risk

25 Financial Incentives (cont.) System Vaccinations required Vacc. costs per prod. cycle (USD) Value at risk of loss (USD) Min. Break even outbreak risk per prod. cycle (%) Layer 5 (inactivated HPAI ) Broiler 2 (HVT-AI + inactivated HPAI booster Broiler 1 (HVT-AI) Farmers have financial vaccination incentive if expected incidence rate is higher than min. break even outbreak risk (peak of epidemic in Thailand it was 0.2)

26 Financial Incentives (cont.) Vaccination costs are too high to be a profitable insurance in relation to average outbreak risks and outbreak losses for (risk neutral) broiler farmers Incentives to vaccinate are different depending on the production system

27 Conclusions Mass vaccination campaigns are not economically sustainable HVT-AI vaccination in hatcheries would have a positive cost-benefit ratio for layer chicken if a prime booster strategy provides full protection over the entire live cycle Insurance schemes or hygiene upgrading of market chains are cost effective alternatives to broiler vaccination