The HCP (Hidden Critical Paths) Method: Shortening projects schedules and more

Transcription

1 The HCP (Hidden Critical Paths) Method: Shortening projects schedules and more Tal Levanon, MSc, PMI-SP Founder & CTO HCP Project Management Consulting

2 Tal Levanon - Founder & CTO Developer of the Hidden Critical Paths method (US patent #US7,769,618 B2) 15 years of international project management experience PMI-SP (PMI-Schedule Professional) Lecturer at the Engineering Department of Tel Aviv University M.Sc. Industrial Engineering Tel Aviv University (Israel) Tal Levanon - HCP 2

3 Agenda Motivation for listening What is HCP? Insights Revealed by HCP HCP Case Studies Tal Levanon - HCP 3

4 Objectives of the HCP Method (Patented) Predict the ability to complete the project on time, on spec and on budget Pinpoint action items for schedule improvement Identify hidden risks in the project Tal Levanon - HCP 4

5 Who is our Clientele? Subject HCP deep schedule analysis for schedules from outside sources Writing schedules for tenders, projects Monthly monitoring projects schedules by performance and by HCP analysis Risk Management Lectures, Training Legend Asset Owners & Investors Contractors Project Managers Parties to Claims & Disputes HCP Project Management Consulting - Proprietary 5

6 What is the HCP (Hidden Critical Paths) Method? Unique algorithmic approach to analyzing a project schedule Reveal critical aspects of any project schedule: Locate opportunities to shorten schedule Locate hidden risks in the schedule Know the success expectation rate of the project Compare between two schedules: of two different contractors or of the same contractor. And more Tal Levanon - HCP 6

7 What are Hidden Critical Paths? Example: Your project duration is: 12 months. Q: What is the duration of the critical path? A: Normally, 12 months. In this project, there is a path 11.5 months long: Is it critical? Not according to CPM! But it s not hard to get behind schedule by two weeks in real life So what is this path? This is a Hidden Critical Path! Tal Levanon - HCP 7

8 Hidden Critical Paths ID Duration August September October November Critical Path I Critical Path II Hidden Critical Path I Hidden Critical Path II Tal Levanon - HCP 8

9 Insights Revealed by HCP Locate opportunities to shorten schedule Locate hidden risks in the schedule Know the success expectation rate of the project Compare between two schedules And more Tal Levanon - HCP 9

10 HCP Critical Path Identical to CPM Critical Path? Opportunities for Bringing Forward the Schedule's End Date! Real Project Two Paths Sample Project Tal Levanon - HCP 10

11 Real Project Display format: Activity Network (Primavera) PERT Network (MS Project) 1,100 activities, 600 work days Duration Float of Total Project Duration No. of Paths??? 20% ~ 50,000 10% ~ 9,000 5% ~ 1,500 Tal Levanon - HCP 11

12 Two Paths Sample Project 9sf+2days 13sf+2days 10sf+2days 14sf+2days HCP-Critical-Path identical to CPM Critical Path? Opportunities for Bringing Forward the Schedule's End Date! The Difference between Total Float/Slack and Duration Float/Slack Tal Levanon - HCP 12

13 Activities in HCP Critical Paths Tal Levanon - HCP 13

14 Opportunities for Bringing Forward the Project s End Date Tal Levanon - HCP 14

15 Schedule Showing Total Float/Slack and HCP Duration Float/Slack 9sf+2days 10sf+2days 13sf+2days 14sf+2days Tal Levanon - HCP 15

16 Highway 6: Section 18 Haifa Lebanon Length: 18.2 km long including 14 bridges, 2 tunnels Budget: ~$200 million Contract: 33 months (June 2007 March 2010) Tel Aviv Jerusalem Jordan Highway 6: Toll road 121 km long BOT (Build-Operate- Transfer) Budget: ~$1 Billion Egypt Beer Sheva Tal Levanon - HCP 16

17 Hwy 6, Section 18 1,488 Tasks Start Date Project Duration: days = T Finish Date 12,920 paths found! DS 40% T 345 slack days 0 paths found! DS < 33% T 290 slack days The network duration: days Project Slack Tal Levanon - HCP 17

18 The HCP Critical Path CP duration: days 290 slack days HCP critical tasks Possible timeline reductions Parallel tasks in the CP (risk) Tal Levanon - HCP 18

19 Hidden Critical Activities Manage the HCP activities as you manage the CPM activities! Risk management assessment Hidden critical resources Redundant Paths Tal Levanon - HCP 19

20 Bridge of Strings, Jerusalem, Israel Architect: Santiago Calatrava L: 380 meters W: 4,500 tons Pylon Height: 119 meters 66 Cables, each ~150 meters. Materials: Stainless steel Concrete Cost: ~$65 Million Tal Levanon - HCP 20

21 Redundant paths Path X is redundant to Path Y if all the tasks exist in Path X also exist in Path Y. A B C D E F Path X: A B E F Path Y: A B C D E F Tal Levanon - HCP 21

22 Project Success Expectation Tal Levanon - HCP 22

23 Schedules Comparison Tenders: Comparison between two (or more) different schedules of different contractors The same project: Comparison between two (or more) schedules of different months Relevant to: PMs, Expert Inspectors, Specialists, Lawyers, CEOs, etc. Project: Mysterious HCP analysis comparison: Month #1, Month #2 Tal Levanon - HCP 23

24 Mirroring the Project Structure More than 8,500 activities, 8 different Primavera files combined M #1 Date X Project Duration: 460 work days =T1 2,813 paths found! (17 17,502 total) Date Y DS 5% T1 23 float days M #2 Too much Over 50, paths found (total) Project Duration: 439 work days =T2 851 paths found! (9,179 total) Date Z DS 10% T1 46 float days DS 20% T2 87 float days 1 Month buffer Tal Levanon - HCP 24

25 HCP: Project Success Expectation M#1 M#2 Tal Levanon - HCP 25

26 Paths Histogram Comparison M #1 M #2 Tal Levanon - HCP 26

27 The HCPs M #1 M #2 7 paths with 1 day DS 3 tasks 1 path with 5 day DS 4 tasks 19 paths with 10 days DS 23 tasks 1 path with 8 days DS 10 tasks 19 paths with 11 days DS 1 path with 16 days DS 13 tasks 1376 paths with 15 days DS 87 tasks 1 path with 17 days DS 12 tasks 1380 paths with 16 days DS 10 tasks 2 paths with 18 days DS 22 tasks 3 paths with 17 days DS 1 path with 20 days DS 14 tasks 2 paths with 20 days DS 2 tasks 1 path with 22 days DS 2 tasks 2 paths with 21 days DS 2 paths with 23 days DS 19 tasks Total of 167 HCP tasks (21DS days): 42 Critical Tasks 125 Hidden Critical Tasks Total of 150 HCP tasks (23DS days): 54 Critical Tasks 96 Hidden Critical Tasks Tal Levanon - HCP 27

28 The CP by the HCP Analysis M #1 6 different Critical Paths 42 tasks All identical to CPM Critical Paths 8 cases of overlapping tasks (higher risk) No Options for timeline reductions M #2 3 different Critical Paths 54 tasks All identical to CPM Critical Paths 9 cases of overlapping tasks (higher risk) No Options for timeline reductions Tal Levanon - HCP 28

29 Identify weak control points M #1 Project threshold: 90 days. M #2 Project threshold: 27.8 days. 461 activities with duration longer than 90 days were located 234 activities with duration longer than 28 days were located Tal Levanon - HCP 29

30 Technical Insights Schedule Integrity Issues HCP Histogram Risk Management Issues: Overlapping Activities in the HCP Critical Path Difficult-to-Track Activities Key Schedule and Analysis Dates Tal Levanon - HCP 30

31 Schedule Integrity Issues Tasks which should have finished or should have started Summary Tasks Directly Linked from Predecessors Summary Tasks Directly Linked to Successors Only Earliest/Latest Tasks within Summary Tasks Linked to Other Tasks opportunities to reduce the overall schedule duration Tal Levanon - HCP 31

32 Critical and Near-critical HCP Paths Histogram Tal Levanon - HCP 32

33 Case studies: HCP Histograms What do you think? Which one is a better project schedule? Cardio Number of Paths Path duration slack / float Tal Levanon - HCP 33

34 Case studies: HCP Histograms cont. What do you think? What happened in the project? Number of Paths Number of Paths Path duration slack / float Path duration slack / float Basic schedule May 2011 Update schedule Dec Tal Levanon - HCP 34

35 Case study: Route 9, Jerusalem 3.6 km 3 bridges 2 tunnels (400m) ~$125 million Total time: 6 years (2001-May 2007) 11 sections 11 contractors HCP involved from October Tal Levanon - HCP 35

36 Risk management (1): Overlapping Activities in the HCP Critical Path Parallel activities in the HCP critical path significantly increase the overall risk of completing the project on schedule. Tal Levanon - HCP 36

37 Difficult-to-Track Activities Activities whose duration is longer than a certain threshold*: Divide into smaller sub-activities *The HCP Method calculates this threshold per project Tal Levanon - HCP 37

38 Key Schedule and Analysis Dates The start date of analysis can be later than the project start date. The effective date of analysis can be today, or can simulate any other date! Tal Levanon - HCP 38

39 Unique Insights! Two or more schedules in One! A major change in the schedule does NOT have to result in a loss of control Proactive management Tal Levanon - HCP 39

40 Case Study:? The subject of the project: Unknown All tasks names were removed, only WBS numbers left! Tal Levanon - HCP 40

41 The process Dec 18 th, 2006 Dec 18 th, 2006 Dec 25 th, 2006 Dec 31 st, 2006 Jan 28 th, 2007 Feb 4 th, 2007 Received Schedule Sent HCP Free Analysis report Received Schedule HCP Full Analysis report ready. Received Schedule HCP Full Analysis report ready. ID ID Task Task duration Duration start Start finishfinish Predecessor Predecessor Successor Tal Levanon - HCP 41

42 Project s structure Dec 21 st, Critical Paths (Identical to MS-Project) 1 HCP with Duration Slack=13 days Jan 28 th, Critical Path (Partially Identical to MS- Project) 10 HCPs with Duration Slack=8 days Tal Levanon - HCP 42

43 Hidden Critical Paths Tal Levanon - HCP 43

44 Case Study: Semiconductor Factory Expansion MAX IEG Consulting & management company Allegro Microsystems MA, USA A Silicon wafer fabrication facility located in MA, USA Project stages: Construction of building for new line Installation of capital equipment Production startup Tal Levanon - HCP 44

45 Project Profile Start date: Aug 2004 End date: May 2005 (198.7 work days) HCP analysis was performed in Oct 2004 (after 2 months of work) Schedule included 165 tasks Tal Levanon - HCP 45

46 HCP Analysis Results Duration Slack=20%, 118 paths found: 2 Critical Paths 2 HCP with 2 days DS 2 HCP with 3.2 days DS 1 HCP with 5.3 days DS But that s not all Tal Levanon - HCP 46

47 HCP Analysis Results (cont.) Project scheduled duration: days Project actual duration: days 25.6 work days without any work scheduled in the HCP critical path! The HCP Method discovered this by identifying a task which caused a delay due to a constraint Hidden critical path with DS=5.3 days hasn t started yet, concealing potential problems! Tal Levanon - HCP 47

48 The Impact of HCP Project s due date: May 11 th, 2005 $250,000 contingency budget Project budget: $2.5M Reactive management Project completed 3 weeks early! Contingency budget untouched! Project total cost: $1.8M Proactive Management The client: HCP is a very powerful tool for PMs at all levels! Tal Levanon - HCP 48

49 How does your project reflect in the HCP mirror? Tal Levanon - HCP 49

50 Thank you for Listening! Questions? We ll be happy to answer! Comments? We d like to hear from you! Tal Levanon - HCP 50

51 Contact Information Name Title Company Phone Web-site Tal Levanon Founder & CTO HCP Project Management Consulting HCP (outside USA) Tal Levanon - HCP 51