Interac(ons of ocean acidifica(on with physical climate change
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1 Interac(ons of ocean acidifica(on with physical climate change Laurent Bopp, LSCE/IPSL, Paris France Laure Resplandy, James Orr, Roland Séférian (LSCE/IPSL) and CMIP5 modellers
2 Introduc(on Ocean Acidifica(on and Physical Climate Change share a common driver Atm. pco 2 Surface Ocean ph Surface Ocean Temperature ( C)
3 Introduc(on Ocean Acidifica(on (OA) and Physical Climate Change (CC) share a common driver but they do not occur, strictly speaking, in parallel and they can interact I. Explore some differences between OA and CC for several 21 st century scenarios (rates of changes, temporal & spa(al variability) Atm. pco2 Changes in C ant / ph vs. changes Temperature / Heat OA (ph) Physical CC (T)
4 Introduc(on Ocean Acidifica(on (OA) and Physical Climate Change (CC) share a common driver but they do not occur, strictly speaking, in parallel and they can interact I. Explore some differences between OA and CC for several 21 st century scenarios (rates, temporal & spa(al variability) Atm. pco2 Changes in C ant / ph vs. changes Temperature / Heat II. Extend the ph/temperature projec(ons towards a mul(- stressor approach Changes in ph / Temperature / O 2 / Produc(vity OA ph, CO 3 2-, Ω Physical CC T, O 2, NPP,.
5 Introduc(on Ocean Acidifica(on (OA) and Physical Climate Change (CC) share a common driver but they do not occur, strictly speaking, in parallel and they can interact I. Explore some differences between OA and CC for several 21 st century scenarios (rates, temporal & spa(al variability) Atm. pco2 Changes in C ant / ph vs. changes Temperature / Heat II. Extend the ph/temperature projec(ons towards a mul(- stressor approach Changes in ph / Temperature / O 2 / Produc(vity OA ph, CO 3 2-, Ω Physical CC T, O 2, NPP,. III. Show how OA and CC (may) interact Impact of CC on rates of OA Impact of OA on O 2 changes
6 Introduc(on - Methodology Use of the new Representa(ve Concentra(on Pathways Scenarios (RCPs) RCP8.5 : CO 2atm = 936 ppm in 2100 RCP6.0: CO 2atm = 670 ppm in 2100 RCP4.5: CO 2atm = 538 ppm in 2100 RCP2.6: CO 2atm < 450 ppm (CMIP5, Taylor et al. 2009)
7 Introduc(on - Methodology Use of the new Representa(ve Concentra(on Pathways Scenarios (RCPs) RCP8.5 : CO 2atm = 936 ppm in 2100 RCP6.0: CO 2atm = 670 ppm in 2100 RCP4.5: CO 2atm = 538 ppm in 2100 RCP2.6: CO 2atm < 450 ppm (CMIP5, Taylor et al. 2009) and of simula(ons performed with the most recent genera(on of Earth System Models 13 models: CanESM2 (Arora et al. 2011) GFDL- ESM2G (Dunne et al. 2012) GFDL- ESM2M (Dunne et al. 2012) HadGEM2- CC (Collins et al. Jones et al. 2011) HadGEM2- ES (Collins et al. Jones et al. 2011) IPSL- CM5A- LR (Dufresne et al. 2012) (CMIP5 models) IPSL- CM5A- MR (Dufresne et al. 2012) IPSL- CM5B- LR (Hourdin et al. 2012) MIROC- ESM (Wanatabe et al. 2012) MIROC- ESM- CHEM (Wanatabe et al. 2012) MPI- ESM- LR (Ilyina et al. 2012) MPI- ESM- MR (Ilyina et al. 2012) NorESM1 (Tjiputra et al. 2012) and more to come
8 I. From atm. CO 2 to Ocean Acidifica(on and Climate Change 11 models 11 models RCP8.5 Model- mean +/- σ Surface Mean ph (as Orr et al. 2005) SST ( C) RCP8.5 : Δ ph = / Δ SST = C in 2100
9 I. From atm. CO 2 to OA and CC: Surface ocean 11/8/11/4 models 11/8/11/4 models Surface Mean ph (as Orr et al. 2005) SST ( C) RCP : Δ ph = / / / and Δ SST = / 1.5 / 1.25 / 0.5 C in 2100 projected ph : very dis(nct for each RCP projected SST : large temporal variability / more intermodel differences than for ph
10 I. From atm. CO 2 to OA and CC: Surface ocean RCP RCP45 Δ ph (2090/ /1999) Δ SST ( C) (2090/ /1999) Projected ph very homogeneous vs. projected SST very variable spa(ally
11 I. From atm. CO 2 to OA and CC: On the ver(cal Anthropogenic Carbon Heat Storage RCP RCP45 Δ C ant (molc/m2, 2090/ /1999) Δ Heat Storage (10 10 J/m2, 2090/ /1999) Heat storage located on frontal structures / C ant more diffuse
12 I. From atm. CO 2 to OA and CC: On the ver(cal Depth of at which ΔpH and ΔT in- situ are maximum in 2100 (11 model- mean) RCP85 (m) ΔT max. at surface apart from high- lat / deep MLD regions. In the subtropics, ΔpH is maximum at sub- surface / in modal waters (as discussed by Bates et al from observa(ons in the N.Atl).
13 I. From atm. CO 2 to OA and CC: in water masses Change of T and ph in dis(nct water- masses (mul(- model means & standard devia(on) ΔpH ( ) Δtemperature ( ) TW: Thermocline waters MIW :Modal / intermediate DW :Deep waters BW : Bolom waters
14 I. From atm. CO 2 to OA and CC: in water masses Change of T and ph in dis(nct water- masses (mul(- model means & standard devia(on) No clear & direct rela(on between T and ph when going deep N. Pacific watermasses ΔT From rcp2.6 to rcp ΔpH
15 I. From atm. CO 2 to OA and CC Mechanisms / processes that differ : - Climate change: other drivers than atm. pco 2 - Different atmospheric history & evolu(on: pco 2 vs. air temperature - Different equilibrium (me at air- sea interface / different seasonal palerns of uptake - Propaga(on in the ocean s interior: ac(ve (T) vs. passive (DIC, Alk) tracers carbonate chemistry (varying buffer capacity)
16 II. Mul(- Stressors Climate- change driven modifica(ons of O 2 and Net Primary Produc(vity are much more uncertain and show very different spa(al palerns than T & ph With pre- CMIP5 era models shown by Steinacher et al. (2010) for NPP shown by Cocco et al. (subm) for O 2
17 II. Mul(- Stressors: Net Primary Produc(vity Global- mean decrease simulated by all models, ranging from - 5 to - 18 % Rela(ve Change in NPP from 2005 to 2100 (RCP85 scenario) IPSL- CM5A- LR IPSL- CM5A- MR MPIM- ESM MIROC- ESM MIROC- ESM- CHEM CanESM2 HadGEM2- ES HadGEM2- CC
18 II. Mul(- Stressors: Net Primary Produc(vity Global- mean decrease simulated by all models Large regional contrasts: - 50% in N. Atl, - 20% in the tropics, increase in the SO Rela(ve Change in NPP from 2005 to 2100 (RCP85 scenario, model- mean, %) S(ppled regions: when >75% of the models agree on the sign of change Mechanisms: increased ocean stra(fica(on reduced nutrient supply / light limita(on
19 II. Mul(- Stressors: Oxygen Global- mean O 2 decrease simulated by all models, ranging from - 3 to - 6 % Rela(ve Change in O 22 from 2005 to 2100 (RCP85 scenario)
20 II. Mul(- Stressors: Oxygen Global- mean O 2 decrease simulated by all models, ranging from - 3 to - 6 % Large regional contrasts: consistent decrease at high/mid la(tudes increase in the tropical indian and atlan(c oceans major uncertainty in the tropical pacific Absolute Change in O 2 from 200 to 600m, from 2005 to 2100 (RCP85 scenario, model- mean, mmol/m3) S(ppled regions: when >75% of the models agree on the sign of change
21 II. Mul(- Stressors: rela(on in dis(nct water- masses? O 2 vs ph: North Pacific N. Pacific watermasses Modal / intermediate waters of the NPac : large decrease in ph and O 2 ΔO2 From rcp2.6 to rcp ΔpH
22 III. Interac(ons between Ocean Acidifica(on & Climate Change CC OA : Impact of climate change on rate of OA (Arc(c, Deep N.Atl) OA CC : Changes in C/N ra(os and impact on O 2 levels in the tropics
23 III. Interac(ons between Ocean Acidifica(on & Climate Change CC OA : Impact of climate change on rate of OA Effect that is included in all previous results Surface ph evolu(on historical + RCP45 scenario ph 2 models ( IPSL- CM5A- LR, CanESM2) years
24 III. Interac(ons between Ocean Acidifica(on & Climate Change CC OA : Impact of climate change on rate of OA Effect that is included in all previous results But removing it has very lille effect on mean surface ph CC included No CC ph 2 models ( IPSL- CM5A- LR, CanESM2) years
25 III. Interac(ons between Ocean Acidifica(on & Climate Change CC OA : Impact of climate change on rate of OA But removing it has very lille effect on mean ph Apart from surface arc(c ocean & deep north atlan(c CC- induced surface ph changes (IPSL- CM5A- LR) CC- induced ph Changes in NAtl bolom waters (CanESM2) Arc(c: linked to sea- ice retreat (see Yamamoto et al. (2012) and later presenta(on) Natl : linked to THC reduc(on
26 III. Interac(ons between Ocean Acidifica(on & Climate Change OA CC O 2 levels : No effect of acidifica(on on organic maler stoechiometry in CMIP5 simula(ons Changes in C/N ra(os (Riebesell et al. 2007) tested by Oschlies et al. (2008) Large increase (+40%!) in suboxia volume driven by an increase in C/N ra(os.
27 III. Interac(ons between Ocean Acidifica(on & Climate Change OA CC O 2 levels : OA could more than counter- balance the effects of CC only Changes in volume of suboxic waters under RCP85: CNP version of PISCES model No climate change Only forcing : CO2 & acidifica(on 3 different assump(ons on phyto physiological response to OA Acidifica(on Climate Change (Tagliabue et al. 2011)
28 Conclusions & Perspec(ves New IPCC- type Earth System Models offer the opportunity to study projected marine BGC Early results show contras(ng changes in ph/t/o 2 /PP under the influence of CC & OA But these models s(ll suffer from large deficiencies Coarse Resolu(on / Ocean Physics Towards higher horizontal resolu(on Need of more quan(ta(ve / region- focused studies Biogeochemistry is s(ll very simplis(c Representa(on of marine food- webs Poten(al impacts of OA on biological processes yet not included in most models
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31 Focus on hypoxic and suboxic waters : Ocean Acidifica(on? No effect of acidifica(on on organic maler stoechiometry in these simula(ons Changes in C/N ra(os (Riebesell et al. 2007) tested by Oschlies et al. (2008) Large increase (+40%!) in suboxia volume driven by an increase in C/N ra(os. Tagliabue et al. (2011) : CNP version of PISCES model No climate change Only forcing : CO2 & acidifica(on 3 different assump(ons on phyto physiological response to OA
32 Focus on hypoxic and suboxic waters : Ocean Acidifica(on? Tagliabue et al. (2011) : Changes in [O 2 ] at 400m, in 2100 vs Excess carbon POC Excess carbon DOC
33 Focus on hypoxic and suboxic waters : Changes in suboxic waters: Climate change and Ocean Acidifica(on? Acidifica(on Climate Change
34
35 Biogeochemical Drivers Changes in Net Primary Produc(vity driven by climate change Rela(ve Change in NPP from 2005 to 2100 (RCP85 scenario) IPSL- CM5A- LR IPSL- CM5A- MR MPIM- ESM MIROC- ESM MIROC- ESM- CHEM CanESM2 HadGEM2- ES HadGEM2- CC A global decrease of NPP by - 5 to - 18% in 2100
36 Biogeochemical Drivers Changes in Net Primary Produc(vity driven by climate change Rela(ve Change in NPP from 2005 to 2100 (RCP85 scenario, model- mean, %) Hatched regions: when >75% of the models agree on the sign of change Large regional contrasts: - 50% in N. Atl, - 20% in the tropics, increase in the SO
37 Biogeochemical Drivers Changes in Net Primary Produc(vity driven by climate change Steinacher et al Very similar to previous model- intercomparison study (previous genera(on of models)
38 Biogeochemical Drivers Changes in Net Primary Produc(vity driven by climate change: Drivers Sarmiento et al. 1998, Bopp et al. 2001, Doney et al. 2006
39 Biogeochemical Drivers Changes in ph / Ocean Acidifica(on RCP4.5 RCP8.5 Increase in C/N ra(os of organic maler (Riebesell et al. 2008) Implica(ons on food quality?
40 Biogeochemical Drivers Changes in Oxygen / Desoxygena(on Observed increase of hypoxic waters in the Eq. Pacific Stramma et al. 2008
41 Biogeochemical Drivers Changes in Oxygen / Desoxygena(on Changes in [O 2 ] (micromol/l) (5- model mean, SRES- A2) : 0 m Hatched regions: when >75% of the models agree on the sign of change ΔO2 (µmol/l) (IPSL- CM4, UVIC, CSM1.4, CCSM3, BCM- C) Large decrease of O 2 in surface waters: solubility- driven
42 Biogeochemical Drivers Changes in Oxygen / Desoxygena(on Changes in [O 2 ] (micromol/l) (5- model mean, SRES- A2) : 200 m Hatched regions: when >75% of the models agree on the sign of change ΔO2 (µmol/l) Consistent at mid/high lat but models do not agree in the tropics!
43 III. Interac(ons between Ocean Acidifica(on & Climate Change CC OA : Impact of climate change on rate of OA Effect that is included in all previous results But removing it has very lille effect on mean surface ph CC included No CC ph 2 models ( IPSL- CM5A- LR, CanESM2) years
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