Climate Test Bed (CTB) Overview

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1 Climate Test Bed (CTB) Overview Jin Huang October 6, 2011 Fort Worth, TX Purpose of the CTB PIs Mee<ng and CTB/SAB Mee<ng 1. Review CTB progress since Seek recommenda<ons on Issues on ongoing and near- term ac<vi<es Future CTB direc<on, priori<es and strategies

Research Topics AO NCEP Co-PI LOI Proposal Reanalysis / Reforecasts Earth System

Research Climate Forecast Products MME CFS Improvements R2O O2R Operations Improved

fic advances from the climate research community to improved NOAA climate forecast

Joint NCEP- CPO facility @ NCEP CTB Science Advisor Board (SAB) Established in 2005

es CTB embraces the R2O and O2R paradigms A grants program sponsored by CPO/MAPP Program

2 Research Topics AO NCEP Co-PI LOI Proposal Reanalysis / Reforecasts Earth System Modeling Tropical oscillations Model physics Etc. Research Climate Forecast Products MME CFS Improvements R2O O2R Operations Improved products and services NCEP Climate Test Bed Mission To accelerate the transi?on of scien?fic advances from the climate research community to improved NOAA climate forecast products and services. Joint NCEP- CPO NCEP CTB Science Advisor Board (SAB) Established in 2005 Serves as conduit between the opera?onal, academic and research communi?es CTB embraces the R2O and O2R paradigms A grants program sponsored by CPO/MAPP Program CTB emphasizes three science priorities 1) CFS evaluations and improvements 2) Multi-model ensembles 3) Climate forecast tools and products Bi-weekly CTB management meeting (CTB, CPO, CPC, and EMC) CTB Monthly Seminar Series 2

CTB Science Advisory Board (SAB) To provide independent scien<fic advice, broad direc<on, and endorsement of ongoing and planned ac<vi<es T. Barnston (IRI) T.

3 CTB Science Advisory Board (SAB) To provide independent scien<fic advice, broad direc<on, and endorsement of ongoing and planned ac<vi<es T. Barnston (IRI) T. Busalacchi (ESSIC, U. of Maryland) - Chair J. Kinter (COLA) M. Harrison (UKMO) E. Harrison (PMEL) D. LeZenmaier (U of Washington) K. Redmond (DRI) T. Rosa< (GFDL) M. Suarez (GMAO) J. Tribbia (NCAR)

CTB Ac?vity (1): Mul?- Model Ensembles Goal A mul? model ensemble predic?

Combining (FY08) MME Prediction with CFS and CCSM (FY08) Subseasonal Ensemble Forecast

4 CTB Ac?vity (1): Mul?- Model Ensembles Goal A mul? model ensemble predic?on system that leverages the best na?onal and interna?onal models for improved predic?ons on intraseasonal- to- interannual?me scales CTB Funded Activities: Consolidation techniques (FY08) Recalibrating and Combining (FY08) MME Prediction with CFS and CCSM (FY08) Subseasonal Ensemble Forecast Techniques (FY09) MME Forecast of MJO (FY10) Incorporating Scale and Predictability Information in MME Prediction (FY10) ENSO Prediction MME mean outperforms individual models 4

5 Na?onal Mul?- Model Ensemble (NMME) that leverages the best US climate models for improved opera?onal predic?ons on intraseasonal- to- interannual?me scales Phase- I (FY11): NMME of Opportunity Ad hoc system based on exis<ng hindcasts Started to issue experimental real <me NMME forecasts in August, 2011 Phase- II (FY12-13): Purposeful NMME A designed and improved system Phase- III (> FY13): Opera?onal NMME CPO funded Phase- I project and issued a FY12 call for proposals for a Phase- II NMME project Par?cipa?ng models in Phase- I: o NCEP CFSv1; CFSv2 o GFDL CM2.1 o NCAR CCSM3.0 o NASA GEOS5 o IRI- ECHEM Anomaly Correla?ons Lead Time (month) (from Qin Zhang) NMME precipita?on forecast Skills compared to individual models: August ini?al condi?on Based on 28 year hindcast 30S- 30N averaged Black lines show the NMME skill

6 CTB Ac?vity (2): Improving Climate Forecast Tools/Products Goal To provide reliable climate forecast products that are responsive to the needs of users and incorporate state- of- the- art science and research CTB Funded Ac?vi?es Drought New tool for drought predic<on (FY08) Drought monitoring and predic<on products using NLDAS and CPPA results (FY10) Drought Early Warning Index using satellite data (FY09) Par?cipa?ng MAPP Drought Task Force Forecast Tools, Assessment and Improvement Precipita<on Predic<on System over the Pacific Islands (FY08) Probabilis<c Forecasts of Extreme Events and Weather Hazards (FY08) Seasonal Predic<on for Ecosystems and Carbon Cycle (FY10) Enabling the Transi<on of CPC Products to GIS Format (FY08) 6

CTB Ac?vity (3): CFS Evalua?on and Improvements Goal To accelerate evalua?

onal Climate Forecast System (CFS) and to enhance its use as a skillful

vi?es NCEP Climate Process Team (FY10) Bretherton, Teixeira, Pan, et al.

Hybrid Data Assimila?on and coupled O- A Data Assimila?

7 CTB Ac?vity (3): CFS Evalua?on and Improvements Goal To accelerate evalua?on of and improvements to the opera?onal Climate Forecast System (CFS) and to enhance its use as a skillful tool in providing NCEP s climate predic?ons and applica?ons CTB Funded Ac?vi?es NCEP Climate Process Team (FY10) Bretherton, Teixeira, Pan, et al. CFS Stratosphere Improvement (FY09) Perlwitz, Long, Alpert & Iredell Hybrid Data Assimila?on and coupled O- A Data Assimila?on for Reanalysis (FY09) Ide, Kalnay, Miyoshi & Wang Genera?on and Evalua?on of Long- Term Forecasts with NCEP CFS (FY08) Cane, Wang, Xue 7

8 Planning for the Next Genera?on of CFS (CFSv3) Purpose of the CFSv3 planning mee?ng in August, 2011 To bring NCEP and the external community together to develop a strategy for CFSv3 48 par<cipants from na<onal and int l modeling centers, universi<es, COLA, NCEP and other NOAA centers/labs Key ques?ons discussed in the mee?ng What are NOAA s requirements for CFS and the need for a new version (CFSv3)? Should CFSv3 be a community model? What should be the CFSv3 development strategy? Next Steps o CFS Science Workshop focused on CFSv2 evalua<ons in Spring, 2012 o Develop a White Paper on CFSv3 Development Strategy 8

9 CFSv3 Development Strategy based on recommenda<ons in the CFSv3 Planning Mee<ng Plan for sustainability Bold, far- reaching vision (model for !): regional- scale informa<on, extremes, environmental predic<on External advice from research community, other model development shops, and private sector Opportuni?es (grants) for collabora?on of external researchers and NCEP opera<ons Accelerated, con<nuous and ar<culated tes?ng phase Transparent development pathway: evalua<on metrics, decision points, policies that promote openness while reasonably protec<ng intellectual property Consider science- based alterna?ves to current strategy E.g., on- the- fly reanalysis/reforecast cycle E.g., full decoupling of reanalysis and model development Conduct full evalua?on of CFSv2 to jus<fy and guide CFSv3 development: skill, consistency, reliability, value of products

10 Entraining Research: R2O Visi?ng scien?sts program Recrui<ng next genera<on NCEP model development team Annual workshops Evalua<on of current opera<onal model Presenta<on of alterna<ve components, parameteriza<ons and ini<aliza<on/ensemble strategies Climate Process Teams E.g. entrain moderated community of people interested in fast <me- scale processes Other environmental processes (hydrology, land ice, carbon/nitrogen cycle, etc.) Interagency funding (NSF, NASA, DOE)

11 Suppor<ng Research: O2R Requires improved CFS code Documenta<on Accessibility Readability Requires easy to access and easy to use data archives Requires interac<ons and collabora<ons with the external science community Exploit best prac?ces from CCSM/CESM, UK Met Office, ECMWF Seamless predic?on: <ghter, bi- direc<onal integra<on of CFS and GFS development pathways Lessons learned and/or leveraging JCSDA and DTC

12 Summary CTB is aimed at transitioning science advances to improved NOAA climate operations. CTB is jointly sponsored by NCEP and Climate Program Office (CPO) The CTB grants program sponsored by CPO/MAPP Program NCEP provides personnel and computer CTB current science priorities 1) CFS evaluations and improvements 2) Multi-model ensembles 3) Climate forecast tools and products CTB Monthly Seminar Series Acknowledgement to Jiayu, Zhou and Song Yang CTB PIs are encouraged to give a CTB seminar when you come to DC area 12

Update of NOAA (NCEP, Climate Test Bed) Seasonal Forecast Activities

Update of NOAA (NCEP, Climate Test Bed) Seasonal Forecast Activities Stephen J. Lord Director NCEP Environmental Modeling Center NCEP: where America s climate, weather, and ocean services begin 1 Overview