Using risk assessment to inform FMD policy in Mongolia

Transcription

1 Using risk assessment to inform FMD policy in Mongolia M. Schuppers, B. Batsukh, S. Enktuvshin, P. Bolortuya, B. Wieland Animal Health Matters. For Safe Food Solutions.

2 Background Mongolia has a susceptible animal population of approximately 50 mio heads (livestock plus wildlife) Livestock density is low, traditional nomadic herding system Mongolia faces regular FMD outbreaks, but there is no evidence supporting virus circulation between outbreaks There are regional differences in terms of risk: East vs West Routine, semi-annual vaccination with seromonitoring in the East Annual surveys to document freedom in the West National FMD strategy called for risk assessment 2

3 Objectives of the risk assessment To estimate the likelihood of entry, exposure and spread of FMD in Mongolia To provide recommendations for strengthening FMD prevention and control measures To build national capacity to conduct risk assessments 3

4 Methodology April-May First workshop Separate for each region Focus: risk pathways, identification of data needs June-August Data collection by veterinarians Herder survey by Master students Data entry and analysis September Second workshop Joint for both regions Focus: risk estimation, recommendations May National FMD policy meeting 4

5 First workshop: risk pathways & data needs Stage Eastern region Western region Entry Exposure Infection in first herd 1 1 Spread before detection Spread after detection FMD at origin Vehicle in contact with virus Vehicle brought to Mongolia Virus survives on vehicle Poor disinfection at border Entry via vehicle 5

6 Data collection Workshop participants compiled existing data using standardized data collection sheets Master students conducted herder survey among 180 herders in Eastern and Western region - FMD knowledge, understanding of FMD risks, presence of risk factors Master students distributed visitor and movement logs among 90 herders - Contact structure of herder families, mixing of herds Data entry by Master students 6

7 Second workshop: risk estimation Qualitative estimation with 6 levels: negligible-very high Group discussion plenary discussion individual risk estimates Delphi approach: individual estimates plenary discussion individual estimates Individual estimates recorded by electronic audience-response system Uncertainty measured by level of disagreement between participants 7

8 Second workshop: recommendations Opinion-forming game Group discussions Formulation of recommendations for each step of the risk assessment Presentation of recommendations on pinboard Prioritizing of recommendations by stickers 8

9 National FMD policy meeting Approximately 80 participants from across the country Results and recommendations of the risk assessment were presented Discussion about national FMD strategy Decisions about changes to FMD control measures 9

10 Discussion Workshop participants involved in entire process: - Essential to create understanding of risk assessment and develop ability to provide sound recommendations Very high level of commitment, lively and constructive discussions Data collection phase essential to improve quality of risk estimation Huge amount of information to process for risk estimation - Logistical and human resource challenge Findings of risk assessment are reflected in revised FMD control strategy 10

11 Thank you for your attention Acknowledgements: All workshop participants from soums and aimags and Master students of the School of Veterinary Medicine and Biotechnology in Mongolia for participation and data collection Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation for funding of the workshops and data collection Animal Health Matters. For Safe Food Solutions.