GIS BASED MODELLING TO PREDICT THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON MEDFLY POPULATIONS IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND DECISION MAKING SUPPORT FOR PEST MANAGEMENT
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1 GIS BASED MODELLING TO PREDICT THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON MEDFLY POPULATIONS IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND DECISION MAKING SUPPORT FOR PEST MANAGEMENT Estuardo Lira 1, David Midgarden 2, Pedro Rendon 3, Nicole Parker 1 Third FAO/IAEA International Conference on Area-wide Management of Insect Pests: Integrating the Sterile Insect and Related Nuclear and Other Techniques Vienna, Austria, May 25, USDA-APHIS-IS Medfly Program. Guatemala, Guatemala. Estuardo.Lira@aphis.usda.gov, Nicole.S.Parker@aphis.usda.gov 2. USDA-APHIS-IS. Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic. David.G.Midgarden@aphis.usda.gov 3. IAEA-TCLA - Medfly Program. Guatemala, Guatemala. P.A.Rendon-Arana@iaea.org
2 Medfly Program Climate Change GIS Medfly Ecology Host Temperature Prediction Models Conclusions Contents
3 MEDFLY PROGRAM
4 1977 Guatemala + México + USA + Belize Protect and Promote the Fruit Production Eradicate the Mediterranean Fruit Fly Protect Medfly Free Areas
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8 CLIMATE CHANGE
9 Climate Change 2014 Synthesis Report Summary for Policymakers
10 Climate Change 2014 Synthesis Report Summary for Policymakers
11 Climate Change 2014 Synthesis Report Summary for Policymakers
12 Climate Change 2014 Synthesis Report Summary for Policymakers
13 Climate Change 2014 Synthesis Report Summary for Policymakers
14 Climate Change 2014 Synthesis Report Summary for Policymakers
15 Climate Extremes (Houghton, p.154)
16 Climate Extremes (Houghton, p.154)
17 Climate Extremes (Houghton, p.154)
18 GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS GIS
19 REAL WORLD can be represented as THEMATIC LAYERS so it can be DESCRIBED and ANALYZED Traps Land Use SIT Release Blocks Temperature Rainfall Terrain Traps SIT Blocks GIS Operations - Models - Analysis Scenarios Traps Sampling GPS Satellite Imagery Aerial Photos Coffee Digital Model Cartography.- Generalization - Symbolization Maps Real World Decision Makers
20 Host + Temperature MEDFLY ECOLOGY
21 MEDFLY ECOLOGY CONDITIONS Coffee = Main host Life Cycle = ~ 28 days (depending on temperature) ~ 328 Degree Days Temperature Thresholds Minimum ~ 12 C Maximum ~ 28 C Soils = > Sandy Soils, < Clay Soils
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23 Total Captures Fertile Captures October October Month
24 Medfly and Coffee Phenology in Guatemala and Mexico Midgarden, D., Lira, E. Paper presented 7th International Symposium on Fruit Flies of Economic Importance and 6th Meeting of the Working Group on Fruit Flies of Western Hemisphere. Salvador, BA, Brazil. September 2006.
25 Fertile Captures Total Fertile Captures per Month in the year 2007 and Coffee Berries Maturation 60, , , , , , Month -1 Total Fertile Coffee Maturation
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30 Captures 2004 to 2016
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44 GOOD YEARS = FEW CAPTURES BAD YEARS= LOTS OF CAPTURES
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47 WHY?????
48 ALLAN AUCLAIR, ET.AL. MAZATLAN 2008
49 Period of Host Availability (July to December) = Lead-in Year Year of Interest (January to June) Fly-Storm Years Normal Years Fly-Storm Year = High Temperatures + Less Rainfall El Niño High Temperatures + Less Rainfall El Niño Lead-in Year Fly Storm Years
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51 Captures (Logaritmic Scale) Temperature Rainfall Fertile Captures + Temperature - Rainfall EL NIÑO Month
52 ENSO Anomalies El Niño Signal and Outbreak Years 2.5 Lead-In Year Fly-Storm Spill-Over Average
53 ENSO Anomalies 2.5 El Niño Signal and Outbreak Years Lead-In Year Fly-Storm Spill-Over Average Cycle
54 ENSO Anomalies Captures El Niño Signal and Outbreak Years Lead-In Year Fly-Storm Spill-Over Average Cycle Captures 0
55 MEDFLY AND TEMPERATURE
56 Temperature Number of Life Cycles Temperature and Number of Life Cycles Days 0 Temp C Mininum T C Threshold # Life Cycle
57 Temperature Number of Life Cycles Temperature and Number of Life Cycles Days 0 Temp C Mininum T C Threshold Temp + 1 C # Life Cycle Life Cycle Temp + 1 C
58 Number of Life Cycles Number of Flies Number of Life Cycles and Number of Flies 9 4,500, ,000, ,500, ,000, ,500, ,000, ,500, ,000, , Days 0 LifeCycle Number of Flies
59 Number of Life Cycles Number of Flies Number of Life Cycles and Number of Flies 9 4,500, ,000, ,500, ,000, ,500, ,000, ,500, ,000, , Days 0 LifeCycle Life Cycle Temp + 1 C Number of Flies Number of Flies Temp + 1 C
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63 PREDICTION MODELS
64 Modelling Distribution of Medfly Dataset: 17,014 traps. Time Frame: Response Variable: Maximum number of flies captured in one trap in one week. This number represent the maximum level of infestation in one site. Explanatory Variables: Distance to Coffee Close to main host Temperature Life cycle. Soil Texture Clay to sandy Larvae/Pupae Stage MaxEnt Model with increased temperature
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67 CONCLUSIONS
68 Climate Change Models Increase of Temperature Increase of Temperature More Medfly Populations
69 El Niño Signal = Good predictor of Medfly in our region Prediction = Early Warning for Pest Management
70 GIS BASED MODELLING TO PREDICT THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON MEDFLY POPULATIONS IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND DECISION MAKING SUPPORT FOR PEST MANAGEMENT Estuardo Lira 1, David Midgarden 2, Pedro Rendon 3, Nicole Parker 1 Third FAO/IAEA International Conference on Area-wide Management of Insect Pests: Integrating the Sterile Insect and Related Nuclear and Other Techniques Vienna, Austria, May 25, USDA-APHIS-IS Medfly Program. Guatemala, Guatemala. Estuardo.Lira@aphis.usda.gov, Nicole.S.Parker@aphis.usda.gov 2. USDA-APHIS-IS. Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic. David.G.Midgarden@aphis.usda.gov 3. IAEA-TCLA - Medfly Program. Guatemala, Guatemala. P.A.Rendon-Arana@iaea.org
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