Complexity, Networking, and Effects-Based Operations

Transcription

1 Complexity, Networking, and Effects-Based Operations Approaching the how to of EBO Dr. Ed Smith The Way Ahead Boeing Boeing 1

2 The Way Ahead 2

3 1. Why and What Outline 2. The Action-Reaction Cycle and Complexity 3. Dealing with Complexity 4. Conclusion 3

4 1. Why and What New Security Environment Major Combat Peace Crisis Response Hostilities Post- Conflict Peace 4

5 Implications Major Combat Peace Crisis Response Hostilities Post- Conflict Peace Increasing human dimension Increasing complexity Increasing whole of nation / whole of coalition effort 5

6 The What Effects-Based Operations: Coordinated sets of actions directed at shaping the behavior of friends, foes, and neutrals in peace, crisis, and war 6

7 2. The Action-Reaction Cycle and Complexity History & Culture Social Structure Institutional Culture Government And Politics Education Religion Economy Social Mental Model Prior Knowledge Observer Cause and Effect Temporal relations Dynamic Futures Sensemaking Values Anticipated Futures Alternatives Judgment Options Choices among alternatives Choices to wait Choices to seek information Choices to consult others Shared Awareness Blue Red Uncertainty Information (data in context) Data (representation) Action Objects/events Directives Synchronization Planning Cognitive Information 7 Physical

8 Continuing Action Reaction Cycles History & Culture Social Structure Institutional Culture Government And Politics Education Religion Economy Social Mental Model Prior Knowledge Observer Cause and Effect Temporal relations Dynamic Futures Sensemaking Values Anticipated Futures Alternatives Judgment Options Choices among alternatives Choices to wait Choices to seek information Choices to consult others Shared Awareness Blue Red Uncertainty Planning Cognitive Information (data in context) Data (representation) Action Objects/events Directives Information 8 Physical

9 Circular Continuum Major Combat Hostilities Stabilization Crisis Crisis Interaction Peace 9

10 Spiral Continuum Hostilities Crisis Peace Time 10

11 3. Dealing with Complexity The Complicated Known or knowable cause and effect chain Inputs/outputs proportional; whole equals sum of parts The Complex Multiple interdependent variables Changing cause and effect chain Inputs and outputs not proportional; whole does not equal sum of the parts The Complex Adaptive Not only complex but evolves independently and The System of Complex Adaptive Systems 11

12 Supranational Societal Community Organization Group Sociological Evolution Organism Organ Cell OOOOOOO oooooooo oooooooooooooo Biological Evolution James Grier Miller, Living Systems 12

13 International State Military Operational Command Al Qaeda Regional Franchise Local Network Tactical Unit Warfighter OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO State vs. Non-State Actor Terrorist Cell Terrorist 13

14 Essential Processes History & Culture Mental Model Prior Knowledge Education Social Structure Observer Cause Cause and and Effect Effect 2. Temporal relations 2. Sensemaking Temporal relations Dynamic Dynamic Futures Futures Religion Institutional Culture Social Influence Sensemaking Values Anticipated Futures Alternatives Economy Judgment Government And Politics Social Options Choices among alternatives Choices to wait Choices to seek information Choices to consult others Decision-Making Shared Awareness Creation Information (data in context) Data (representation) Action Objects/events Planning Directives Execution Synchronization Cognitive Information 14 Physical

15 Awareness Creation Tasking Collection Fusion System Capacity Priority Sensors Human Reporting Open Sources Collate Fuse Situation History Org. Decision Level History Org. Parameters History Data Handling Process Personnel Personnel Train Manage Validation Interpreting Mining Validation Assessment Electronic Human Sources Subjects Person 15

16 Sensemaking Contextualization Analysis History Compilation Situation Time History Tasking feedback Retrieval Organization Knowledge Base Internal Subject External Interface Identify Validate Mental Model History Culture Organization Profession Society Idiosyncratic Cause/ Effect Process Organization Personalities Cascades Physical Psychological Futures Cascades Military Diplomatic Economic Political Intentions Future Actions

17 Decision-making Projected Sensemaking Options Choice/Plan Desired End State Short Term By Level Long Term Required Effects Direct Indirect Actions Observers Capabilities Available Military Diplomatic Economic Political Evaluate/ Choose Create Courses Of Action Evaluate Feasibility Timeliness Plan Course of Action Capabilities Assess/Assign Organic Non-Organic Accessible Coordinate Military By Level Foe Friend Neutral Self Allied Flexibility Robustness Choose Diplomatic Economic Political Communicate 17 Direction/ Guidance

18 Execution Observables Surveillance Foe Friend Neutral Observables Coordination Context Ambient Military Diplomatic Economic Political Planned Military Diplomatic Economic Political Unplanned Feedback Immediate Tactical Immediate Other 18

19 Social Mental Models Understanding Sensemaking Options Choice Group Organization Experience Culture Viability Education National Acceptability Individual Training Level Organizational Global Awareness Access Media 19

20 Scalability and Timeliness History & Culture Education Social Structure Religion Institutional Culture Societal Influence Economy Government And Politics Societal Mental Model Prior Knowledge Observer Orient Cause Cause and and Effect Effect Temporal Temporal relations relations Dynamic Dynamic Futures Futures Sensemaking Values Anticipated Futures Alternatives Decide Judgment Options Choices among alternatives Choices to wait Choices to seek information Choices to consult others Shared Awareness Observe Information (data in context) Data (representation) Action Objects/events Act Planning Directives Synchronization Cognitive Information 20 Physical

21 Conclusions: So where s the cookbook? It s about the people, stupid! Effects-Based Operations = People = Complexity therefore There is no cookbook Human in the loop is key Complex, multi-level, multi-arena responses Networking vice networks Supporting the man in the loop Second Generation Network Centric Operations 21