Resilience in Criminal Networks. Julie Ayling Regulatory Institutions Network, ANU Associate Investigator, CEPS

Transcription

1 Resilience in Criminal Networks Julie Ayling Regulatory Institutions Network, ANU Associate Investigator, CEPS

2 Illicit Organisations Project CEPS project Illicit Organisations Gangs Organised Crime Terrorist Groups Natural histories - Organisational level - Individual level

3 Overview 1. What is resilience? Ecology Organisational studies 2. What are the sources of resilience for illicit groups? Environmental sources Network sources 3. What are the implications for policing of a resilience perspective? Strategic Operational

4 What is resilience? Resilience is the capacity of a system to absorb disturbance and reorganize while undergoing change so as to still retain essentially the same function, structure, identity, and feedbacks. Walker, B., C. S. Holling, S. R. Carpenter, and A. Kinzig (2004)

5 The concept of resilience in ecology Engineering resilience A single equilibrium or steady state to which a disturbed system will return Resilience is measured as the time taken to return v. Ecological resilience Multiple equilibria or states in which systems can exist; systems can move from one state to another Resilience is measured as the amount of disturbance the system can absorb before it changes state ADAPTIVE CAPACITY

6 Stability domain system

7 Stability domain system

8 Stability domain system

9 Disturbance Tipping point (unstable equilibrium) Stability domain Stability domain

10 Tipping point (unstable equilibrium; threshold) Stability domain Stability domain

11 Tipping point (unstable equilibrium) Stability domain Stability domain

12 A key ingredient of resilience in ecological systems is diversity. Biodiversity provides functional redundancy. a loss of redundancy in a system can also cause a loss of resilience. Systems and their stability domains are inherently interlinked and, at different scales, nested (Holling 2000; Walker 2008). the resilience of a system depends on influences at scales, both spatial and temporal, above and below it: panarchy (Gunderson and Holling 2001) Increased global connectivity means that there is greater crossscale connectedness of systems. Therefore disturbance may have an impact beyond the immediate target system.

13 Ability to absorb disruption + Capacity to adapt to changes arising from disruption minor adjustment Adaptation robust transformation

14 Sources of resilience As sources of resilience increase, so does the ability to adapt (Nelson, Adger and Brown 2007). Conversely, as sources of resilience decrease, so does the ability to adapt.

15 Organisational resilience Also recognises adaptive capacity in systems. Sources of resilience include: A capabilities-based approach (cf. a threat identification/risk management approach); Strategic/scenario planning; Good communication within the organisation Good communication with key stakeholders; A shared vision/sense of purpose/set of values; Simple (or minimal ) structures that regulate without constraining and afford distributed power; Inbuilt redundancy, that is, excess capacity (in stock, infrastructure or skilled people); The capacity to improvise using available rather than optimal resources (bricolage); Inspirational, enthusiastic and intellectually stimulating leaders; A capacity for effective organisational learning.

16 Identifying sources of resilience Can we take the characteristics of resilient organisations and apply them to criminal groups? Significant differences between licit and illicit organisations affect resilience: Vulnerabilities: illicit networks operate both without the state and against the state (Paoli 2002) Illegal products constraints on economic behaviour Lack of formal dispute resolution mechanisms - violence Need for an efficiency/security tradeoff (Morselli 2007). Strengths: illicit networks are sovereignty free (Kenney 2007) Less accountability may mean change is easier to accomplish.

17 3 key determinants of resilience (Nelson, Adger and Brown 2007) 1. Degree to which system is susceptible to change while still retaining structure and function; 2. Degree to which system is capable of selforganisation; 3. Capacity for learning.

18 Possible sources of resilience illicit networks Environmental (nature of stability domain) Crime habitat Community support Degree of interpenetration with the licit world Group characteristics (characteristics of system) Semi-structures, empowered members and shared vision Redundancy Network architecture Trust: history and the nature of ties Compartmentalisation Nature of leadership Capacity for bricolage Capacity for organisational learning

19 Implications for policing For policing of illicit networks, a resilience perspective suggests both strategic and operational pathways towards reducing resilience. Strategic: An ecological approach to intelligence gathering A more careful consideration of possible unintended consequences Operational: Change the stability domain to reduce resilience Target vulnerabilities in the network s structure Redirect strengths identified in the group or individual sources of resilience

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21 Shrinking the stability domain can reduce resilience

22 Implications for policing For policing of illicit networks, a resilience perspective suggests both strategic and operational pathways towards reducing resilience. Strategic: An ecological approach to intelligence gathering A more careful consideration of possible unintended consequences Operational: Change the stability domain to reduce resilience Target vulnerabilities in the network s structure Redirect strengths identified in the groups or individuals sources of resilience

23 Homeboys Industries

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