Impact of 2010 World Cup Soccer on Eskom Energy Sales. J C R Potgieter 22 July 2008

Transcription

1 Impact of 2010 World Cup Soccer on Eskom Energy Sales J C R Potgieter 22 July 2008

2 Contends Purpose Setting the scene Background Assumptions and Approach Energy and Demand Forecast Energy and Demand Forecast per venue Other Factors Impacting Forecast Conclusion Recommendations

3 Purpose To provide a chopping block in order to better define the forecasting complexities To provide an estimate of the expected Energy consumption for the duration of 2010 World Cup, from 7 June 2010 to 13 July 2010 Do not include the energy consumption in the runup to the World Cup from Construction of infrastructure. This is taken care of in the long term plan exercise

4 Background South Korea s approach to its World Cup and Lessons for South Africa A White Paper on the 2010 Soccer World Cup: What are the Implications for South Africa s Power Sector? September 2007 Frost & Sullivan. Look at Inniebos impact on Nelspruit sales

5 Setting the scene I am sure all of you present must have a view of what the impact of the WC 2010 will be on South Africa s energy sales how much additional energy will we require during the event. I would like to hear your forecast of the expected additional sales for South Africa To help you the total Eskom energy sales for the period April 2007 to March 2008 was 211 TWh or kwh

6 Setting the scene High Level Forecast kwh kwh National Sales for Apr 2006 to March ,876,624,223 Assume people in RSA 50,000,000 Total Consumption per person 4,218 Additional visitors for WC ,000 Additional Energy use for a year 2,108,766,242 Weeks in a year 52 Additional energy use per week 40,553,197 Duration of WC Additional Energy use for 7 weeks 283,872,379 Very optimistic view include all sectors as 100% variable Normally in forecasting one certainty is that the forecast will be wrong Another certainty is that hindsight is an exact science, thus the second certainty usually prove the first one The above will not apply in the 2010WC forecast As were learnt from other major events in the world and SA it is all but impossible to isolate the impact of an event like this afterwards due to impact of other overriding factors like weather, economic growth, customer breakdowns, DSM, power conservation program etc

7 Setting the scene Impact of Innibos on Nelspruit s energy Innibos took place from 25 June 2008 to 29 June 2008 According to the organisers visitors attended the event This might be overstated to an extend but can be used to get an idea of what the impact of the 4 games in 2010 will be, as the stadium will be able to accommodate spectators The above figure for Innibos will include residents as well as visitors from elsewhere in South Africa I assume that as the festival started on a Wednesday and ended on a Sunday, there could have been visitors from as early as Sunday 22 June or the last visitors could have left on Monday 30 June Must have been a small impact on electricity leading up to the event as preparation took place Nelspruit s average monthly consumption is 43.5 GWh and 101 MW. Anybody would like to quantify the increase in energy and demand for Innibos?

8 Impact on Consumption Nelspruit during Inniebos kwh 2008 kwh 1,700,000 1,600,000 1,500,000 Inniebos 2008 from 25 June 08 to 29 June 2008 (week 4 and 5) Visitors to the event over the duration estimated to be kva Average Daily Consumption 1 June to 21 June 1,479,851 80,845 Average Daily Consumption 22 June to 30 June 1,469,478 82,062 Difference in daily Consumption 10,374 1,217 1,400,000 1,300,000 1,200,000 1,100,000 1,000,000 Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5

9 95,000 Impact on Consumption Nelspruit during Inniebos 2008 kw kwh kva Average Daily Consumption 1 June to 21 June 1,479,851 80,845 Average Daily Consumption 22 June to 30 June 1,469,478 82,062 Difference in daily Consumption 10,374 1,217 90,000 85,000 80,000 75,000 70,000 65,000 60,000 Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5

10 Setting the scene Impact of Innibos on Nelspruit s energy kva kwh W2 vs W1 W3 vs W2 W4 vs W3 W5 vs W4 W4 vs Ave W5 vs Ave Sunday 3.4% 2.6% 8.0% 3.3% 4.8% 0.8% Monday 0.4% 16.2% 16.9% 0.9% 3.7% 5.3% Tuesday 1.3% 6.2% 6.4% 1.5% Wednesday 5.6% 4.1% 2.0% 1.0% Thursday 2.6% 1.5% 0.4% 0.3% Friday 0.9% 0.0% 1.1% 0.8% Saturday 0.6% 2.6% 0.1% 1.6% kva W2 vs W1 W3 vs W2 W4 vs W3 W5 vs W4 W4 vs Ave W5 vs Ave Sunday 3.4% 1.4% 10.7% 2.4% 8.4% 3.8% Monday 4.1% 22.3% 28.9% 2.1% 9.8% 5.9% Tuesday 1.1% 0.7% 2.3% 2.2% Wednesday 0.6% 0.2% 1.6% 1.5% Thursday 1.3% 0.1% 1.3% 1.8% Friday 2.5% 0.3% 2.7% 2.1% Saturday 0.6% 5.2% 1.0% 4.7%

11 Setting the scene Comparison with Rugby World Cup Net Send Out and Peak from 1 January 1994 to 31 Dec /01/ /01/ /02/ /03/ /04/ /05/ /06/ /07/ /08/ /09/ /10/ /11/ /12/ /01/ /01/ /02/ /03/ /04/ /05/ /06/ /07/ /08/ /09/ /10/ /11/ /12/ /01/ /01/ /02/ /03/ /04/ /05/ /06/ /07/ /08/ /09/ GWh /10/ /11/ /12/ /12/ Week ending 27 June 1994 Week ending 26 June MW Comparing the profiles of the 4 week period in 1994 before the Rugby World Cup of 1995 with the same period in 1995, without adjusting for abnormalities, no increased trend of note can be identified. The Soccer World Cup is however a much bigger event. Net Sent Out Peak

12 Background

13 Background

14 Background

15 Background

16 Background

17 Background

18 Assumptions and Approach Split the consumption in two main areas i.e. areas where electricity consumption will be impacted daily throughout the 2010 WC and areas where there will be an additional impact of electricity consumption on game days. The following items were classified under the above two areas: Daily Consumption impact: The additional average daily electricity usage per visitor resulting from visitors requirements that will impact electricity. This was estimated on a fairly optimistic base for the full duration of the WC plus another 8 days for visitors arriving earlier and staying on longer. The number of visitors per match was based on assuming that 50% will be international visitors, 25% will be residents from other SA cities and 25% will be local residents. This daily average consumption is then applied to the number of visitors estimated to be in any one of the venues to calculate an average daily electricity demand. School Holidays. In Gauteng, Mpumalanga, North West and Limpopo school holidays will be 10 days longer than normal while in the rest of the country it will be 15 school days longer than normally. Although there will surely be some additional consumption resulting from this, I am of the opinion that the impact on the electricity consumption during the WC will be minimal. This can be motivated by the fact that school times mostly impacting activities from 6:00 in the morning to 14:00 in the evening. Most of the games will be played in the evenings and most of the school children would have been at home anyway from around 15:00. In addition there will be a reduction in usage of boarding houses that will offset additional electricity usage at home. The additional usage at home will also be mostly

19 Assumptions and Approach from 9:00 to 15:00 and it will be spread over the whole of South Africa. Thus I did calculate some usage but do not feel the need to include it in our additional electricity demand. Game Days Impact The major impacts on game days will be: the Electricity Consumption of the stadiums itself. However, Eskom will be used as a backup only as all of the stadiums will run their own generators as primary supply. This includes estimates for lighting of playing surface and general lighting and other demand of the stadiums itself. Fan Parks Transport Media Centre s Bar s and restaurants

20 08/07/12 08/07/13 Estimated Impact GWh per Host City 2010 WC 9.00 Johannesburg (GWh) Pretoria (GWh) Cape Town (GWh) Durban (GWh) Rustenburg (GWh) Bloemfontein (GWh) Port Elizabeth (GWh) Nelspruit (GWh) Plokwane (GWh) Plettenburg Bay, George or Knysna (GWh) Total Additional Energy over the period = 207 GWh (151 GWh) /06/07 08/06/08 08/06/09 08/06/10 08/06/11 08/06/12 08/06/13 08/06/14 08/06/15 08/06/16 08/06/17 08/06/18 08/06/19 08/06/20 08/06/21 08/06/22 08/06/23 08/06/24 08/06/25 08/06/26 08/06/27 08/06/28 08/06/29 08/06/30 08/07/01 08/07/02 08/07/03 08/07/04 08/07/05 08/07/06 08/07/07 08/07/08 08/07/09 08/07/10 08/07/11

21 08/07/13 Estimated Impact MW per Host City 2010 WC Johannesburg (MW) Pretoria (MW) Cape Town (MW) Durban (MW) Rustenburg 600 (MW) Bloemfontein (MW) Port Elizabeth (MW) Nelspruit (MW) Plokwane (MW) Plettenburg Bay, George or Knysna (MW) Highest additional in Host Cities is 504 MW on 23 June /07/12 08/06/07 08/06/08 08/06/09 08/06/10 08/06/11 08/06/12 08/06/13 08/06/14 08/06/15 08/06/16 08/06/17 08/06/18 08/06/19 08/06/20 08/06/21 08/06/22 08/06/23 08/06/24 08/06/25 08/06/26 08/06/27 08/06/28 08/06/29 08/06/30 08/07/01 08/07/02 08/07/03 08/07/04 08/07/05 08/07/06 08/07/07 08/07/08 08/07/09 08/07/10 08/07/11

22 Estimated Impact MW per Host City 2010 WC based on 151 GWh Johannesburg (MW) Highest additional in Host Cities is 504 for movement of 25% of spectators from be 376 MW on 23 June 2010 Pretoria (MW) Cape Tow n (MW) Durban (MW) Rustenburg (MW) Bloemfontein (MW) Port Elizabeth (MW) Nelspruit (MW) Plokw ane (MW) Plettenburg Bay, George or Knysna (MW) MW on 23 June 2010 but after adjusting other cities the highest for the system will /06/07 08/06/08 08/06/09 08/06/10 08/06/11 08/06/12 08/06/13 08/06/14 08/06/15 08/06/16 08/06/17 08/06/18 08/06/19 08/06/20 08/06/21 08/06/22 08/06/23 08/06/24 08/06/25 08/06/26 08/06/27 08/06/28 08/06/29 08/06/30 08/07/01 08/07/02 08/07/03 08/07/04 08/07/05 08/07/06 08/07/07 08/07/08 08/07/09 08/07/10 08/07/11 08/07/12 08/07/13

23 Estimated Impact GWh/ match day / venue Daily Consumption GWh Average * Additional % Increase Johannesburg % Pretoria % Cape Town % Durban % Rustenburg % Bloemfontein % Port Elizabeth % Nelspruit % Polokwane % Plettenburg Bay, George or Knysna % * Based on average daily consumption Apr 07 to Mar 08

24 11Jul 12Jul 13Jul Estimated Impact GWh/ match day / venue 07Jun 08Jun 09Jun 10Jun 11Jun 12Jun 13Jun 14Jun 15Jun 16Jun 17Jun 18Jun 19Jun 20Jun 21Jun 22Jun 23Jun 24Jun 25Jun 26Jun 27Jun 28Jun 29Jun 30Jun 01Jul 02Jul 03Jul 04Jul 05Jul 06Jul 07Jul 08Jul 09Jul 10Jul Johannesburg (GWh) Pretoria (GWh) Rustenburg (GWh)

25 Estimated Impact GWh/ match day / venue Jun 08Jun 09Jun 10Jun 11Jun 12Jun 13Jun 14Jun 15Jun 16Jun 17Jun 18Jun 19Jun 20Jun 21Jun 22Jun 23Jun 24Jun 25Jun 26Jun 27Jun 28Jun 29Jun 30Jun 01Jul 02Jul 03Jul 04Jul 05Jul 06Jul 07Jul 08Jul 09Jul 10Jul 11Jul 12Jul 13Jul Johannesburg (GWh) Johannesburg (MW)

26 Estimated Impact GWh/ match day / venue Jul 12Jul 13Jul 07Jun 08Jun 09Jun 10Jun 11Jun 12Jun 13Jun 14Jun 15Jun 16Jun 17Jun 18Jun 19Jun 20Jun 21Jun 22Jun 23Jun 24Jun 25Jun 26Jun 27Jun 28Jun 29Jun 30Jun 01Jul 02Jul 03Jul 04Jul 05Jul 06Jul 07Jul 08Jul 09Jul 10Jul Pretoria (GWh) Pretoria (MW)

27 Estimated Impact GWh/ match day / venue Jul 12Jul 13Jul 07Jun 08Jun 09Jun 10Jun 11Jun 12Jun 13Jun 14Jun 15Jun 16Jun 17Jun 18Jun 19Jun 20Jun 21Jun 22Jun 23Jun 24Jun 25Jun 26Jun 27Jun 28Jun 29Jun 30Jun 01Jul 02Jul 03Jul 04Jul 05Jul 06Jul 07Jul 08Jul 09Jul 10Jul Rustenburg (GWh) Rustenburg (MW)

28 Estimated Impact GWh/ match day / venue Jul 13Jul 07Jun 08Jun 09Jun 10Jun 11Jun 12Jun 13Jun 14Jun 15Jun 16Jun 17Jun 18Jun 19Jun 20Jun 21Jun 22Jun 23Jun 24Jun 25Jun 26Jun 27Jun 28Jun 29Jun 30Jun 01Jul 02Jul 03Jul 04Jul 05Jul 06Jul 07Jul 08Jul 09Jul 10Jul 11Jul Cape Town (GWh) Cape Town (MW)

29 Estimated Impact GWh/ match day / venue Jul 13Jul 07Jun 08Jun 09Jun 10Jun 11Jun 12Jun 13Jun 14Jun 15Jun 16Jun 17Jun 18Jun 19Jun 20Jun 21Jun 22Jun 23Jun 24Jun 25Jun 26Jun 27Jun 28Jun 29Jun 30Jun 01Jul 02Jul 03Jul 04Jul 05Jul 06Jul 07Jul 08Jul 09Jul 10Jul 11Jul Durban (GWh) Durban (MW)

30 Estimated Impact GWh/ match day / venue Jul 09Jun 10Jun 11Jun 12Jun 13Jun 14Jun 15Jun 16Jun 17Jun 18Jun 19Jun 20Jun 21Jun 22Jun 23Jun 24Jun 25Jun 26Jun 27Jun 28Jun 29Jun 30Jun 01Jul 02Jul 03Jul 04Jul 05Jul 06Jul 07Jul 08Jul 09Jul 10Jul 11Jul 12Jul 07Jun 08Jun Bloemfontein (GWh) Bloemfontein (MW)

31 Estimated Impact GWh/ match day / venue Jul 09Jun 10Jun 11Jun 12Jun 13Jun 14Jun 15Jun 16Jun 17Jun 18Jun 19Jun 20Jun 21Jun 22Jun 23Jun 24Jun 25Jun 26Jun 27Jun 28Jun 29Jun 30Jun 01Jul 02Jul 03Jul 04Jul 05Jul 06Jul 07Jul 08Jul 09Jul 10Jul 11Jul 12Jul 07Jun 08Jun Port Elizabeth (GWh) Port Elizabeth (MW)

32 Estimated Impact GWh/ day / venue Jul 13Jul 09Jun 10Jun 11Jun 12Jun 13Jun 14Jun 15Jun 16Jun 17Jun 18Jun 19Jun 20Jun 21Jun 22Jun 23Jun 24Jun 25Jun 26Jun 27Jun 28Jun 29Jun 30Jun 01Jul 02Jul 03Jul 04Jul 05Jul 06Jul 07Jul 08Jul 09Jul 10Jul 11Jul 07Jun 08Jun Nelspruit (GWh) Nelspruit (MW)

33 Estimated Impact GWh/ day / venue Jul 13Jul 09Jun 10Jun 11Jun 12Jun 13Jun 14Jun 15Jun 16Jun 17Jun 18Jun 19Jun 20Jun 21Jun 22Jun 23Jun 24Jun 25Jun 26Jun 27Jun 28Jun 29Jun 30Jun 01Jul 02Jul 03Jul 04Jul 05Jul 06Jul 07Jul 08Jul 09Jul 10Jul 11Jul 07Jun 08Jun Plokwane (GWh) Plokwane (MW)

34 Estimated Impact GWh/ day / venue Jun 10Jun 11Jun 12Jun 13Jun 14Jun 15Jun 16Jun 17Jun 18Jun 19Jun 20Jun 21Jun 22Jun 23Jun 24Jun 25Jun 26Jun 27Jun 28Jun 29Jun 30Jun 01Jul 02Jul 03Jul 04Jul 05Jul 06Jul 07Jul 08Jul 09Jul 10Jul 11Jul 12Jul 13Jul 07Jun 08Jun Plettenburg Bay, George or Knysna (GWh) Plettenburg Bay, George or Knysna (MW)

35 Hotels and Accommodation According to estimates South Africa will need to build 70 additional Hotels, that can accommodate 400 to 600 visitors per hotel to cater for the increased demand for beds. To a large extend the electricity requirements expected for the total growth has been provided for in the growth estimates for the future, while the additional electricity usage during 2010 has been allowed for in this forecast. Looking at the table below I am of the opinion that South Africa might struggle to accommodate the expected number of Visitors and that can also mean that the additional consumption per venue are overstated. Bed Avail Bed Req Short/Surp Gauteng (Jhb plus Pretoria) 50,194 77,350 27,156 Cape Town 61,213 35,000 26,213 Durban 33,371 35,000 1,629 Rustenburg 3,086 20,000 16,914 Bloemfontein 4,995 20,000 15,005 Port Elizabeth 12,324 24,750 12,426 Nelspruit 6,731 20,000 13,269 Polokwane 4,628 20,000 15,372 Plettenburg Bay, George or Knysna 176, ,100 75,558

36 Other factors impacting electricity availability The presentation up to now dealt with the increase of sales resulting from 2010 World Cup for the duration of the tournament. Other factors can also impact the sales during the World Cup like: Higher / lower than assumed temperatures Unforeseen incidents like breakdowns at Customer Plant will lead to decreased sales Customer Own Generation Capacity (increased sales) Lower than anticipated commodity prices (decreased sales) Off the above, the temperature can have a very big impact as can be seen on the next slide The return to service stations, PCP project, DSM initiatives and the other supply initiatives like CoGen etc will all impact the supply of electricity during the 2010 World Cup

37 Impact of Weather

38 Impact of Temperature changes on consumption 11 June 2010 to 11 July 2010 Temperature Sensitivity Level of temperature where behavior are impacted Change in temperature GWh sensitivity based on temperature Impact of Temperature Changes on Weekly Sales Impact of Temperature Changes if applicable for the duration of 2010 Phased additional sales over a period from 7 June 2010 to 13 July 2010 If it is 0.5 degree Celsius colder/warmer than average over the period 7June 2010 to 11 July 2010 the sales resulting from the variance in temperature will either double or negate the forecasted additional sales for the whole of the world cup Net impact if temperature is 0.5 degree lower on average for 5 weeks Net impact if temperature is 0.5 degree higher on average for 5 weeks Level of temperature where behavior are impacted Change in temperature GWh sensitivity based on temperature Impact of Temperature Changes on Weekly Sales Impact of Temperature Changes if applicable for the duration of 2010 Phased additional sales over a period from 7 June 2010 to 13 July 2010 If it is 1 degree Celsius colder/warmer than average over the period 7 June 2010 to 11 July 2010 the sales resulting from the variance in temperature will either double or negate the forecasted additional sales for the whole of the world cup Net impact if temperature is 1 degree lower on average for 5 weeks Net impact if temperature is 1 degree higher than average for 5 weeks 16 Degree Celsius 0.50 Degree Celsius 65 GWh / for each 1 degree Celsius change / week 33 GWh 163 GWh if it is warmer 151 GWh if it is colder 5.0 Weeks 313 Increased Sales 12 No Increased Sales 16 Degree Celsius 1.00 Degree Celsius 65 GWh / for each 1 degree Celsius change / week 65 GWh 325 GWh if it is warmer 151 GWh if it is colder 5.0 Weeks 476 Increased Sales 174 Decreased Sales

39 Conclusion

40 Conclusion

41 Conclusion And the Host Cities and South Africa

42 Conclusion

43 Conclusion The additional energy will be highest in the first four weeks starting from 7 June 2008, thereafter it will on a lower level. The impact on the Gauteng area will be the highest and will be for the duration of the tournament The additional energy required for the World Cup will be small in relation to the total energy and will also be decreased by other initiatives like the requirement that self generation will be the supply for stadiums and Eskom Network will only be backup It is more important to forecast the city / site specific increases in peak demand and to identify the impact on substations (Tx and Dx) and the network. The impact of power cuts on the event and on South Africa s image will be very negative, thus we will need to: Ensure that the Venues, access areas around them and areas where bulk of accommodation are, will be identified and ring fenced to enable exclusion in the event of any load shedding This can be refined once the final draw is available so that the priority matches and venues are known The quantified sales of 207 GWh (151 GWh) is based on an optimistic view because it assumes: All the games will be sold out, ie full capacity at the stadiums 50 % of the spectators will be International visitors and 25% will be South Africans travelling Full electricity supply to stadiums while all stadiums will most likely generate their own electricity for the event and use Eskom as a backup only Each of the 6 fanparks will house a similar amount of spectators than the stadiums itself. CoGeneration over a wide front as well as PCP and other demand and supply measures can boost the supply side and lower the demand All of the above will also apply to the Federation Cup, although it is a much smaller event, but it is less than a year from now.

44 Recommendation Impact on peak demand will need to be investigated by J J v Rensburg as this might have a much high impact on supply than the total additional energy required Danie Payne to identify critical networks in order to ensure that maintenance is in place as well as backup plans in the event of any problems More detailed forecast to be done once the Federation Cup draw is available, in November 2008 Update on this exercise as soon as final draw for the 2010 WC is available

45 Thank You???