Making Better Decisions Mistakes, Biases, Irrational Effects and Inspired Genius!

Transcription

1 Making Better Decisions Mistakes, Biases, Irrational Effects and Inspired Genius! One-day Workshop Friday 15 August am 4.30pm Northern Sydney Education Centre Macquarie Hospital Wicks Road North Ryde NSW 2113 Unexpected discoveries regarding how we make decisions have led to several Nobel prizes and shaken the foundation of economics, finance, law and management. This workshop sets out this new knowledge and identifies its lessons for making better decisions in healthcare. Workshop Leader Rod O Connor PhD Director Rod O Connor and Associates P/L Consultants in Health Care Measurement and Planning; Also Conjoint Associate Professor, School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of NSW

2 Background to the workshop In the last ten to twenty years the world has witnessed exciting discoveries in human decision making. These discoveries have revealed strange aspects of our nature, behaviours and capacities we were barely conscious of but which seem to influence most of our decision making. The findings reveal we are nothing like as rational as had been assumed. They have shaken the foundations of economics, finance, business, and law. They have also resulted in several Nobel prizes, for work in behavioural economics, heuristics and biases, and naturalistic decision making, and are progressively influencing healthcare. This workshop sets out these new insights into the way we make decisions. It explains what we have learned about the mechanisms that underlie both good and poor decisions. It considers individual and group decision making, decisions by health professionals and patients, and identifies lessons for making better decisions in healthcare. Outcomes from the workshop At the end of the workshop, participants should be able to explain: the way real decision making differs from idealised decision making, and where traditional models of decision making have been found wanting what is important about bounded awareness and bounded rationality the role of unconscious processes we make decisions when we don t know we have! what are heuristics and biases the basic elements of prospect theory, loss aversion, availability bias, confirmation bias, framing, anchoring and hindsight bias the key elements of naturalistic decision making or NDM, and how experts are both better and worse than novices when thinking too much leads to bad decisions, and instant decisions may be the best ones the central role emotion plays in decision making, and how it can lead to misplaced confidence the nature of adaptation, and why it is central to human decision making the neglected power of the placebo effect and the relationship between evidence-based medicine, cognitive biases, naturalistic decision making, and systems approaches the role of deception in dealing with others and ourselves why group decision making can lead to sub-optimal decisions, where it is very effective, and where it is best avoided some strategies for reducing errors and improving decision making

3 Who should attend? Healthcare professionals in: Management Administration Research Clinical Care Teaching/Learning Methods and Associated Advice The workshop will consist of lectures, discussions and some group work. All materials required will be provided, including overheads and an extensive set of reference articles. A selection of readings will be distributed to assist preparation for the workshop. Workshop Leader Rod O'Connor PhD is a consultant in healthcare and decision making (since the mid 1980s) and Conjoint Associate Professor in the School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of New South Wales. He has a PhD in experimental cognitive psychology and further training in health economics (Monash), health outcomes measurement (Harvard School of Public Health), and modern psychometrics (University of Illinois at Chicago). Rod has worked on the development of decision tools to assist allocate the $4 billion per year Commonwealth Disability Support Pension (the Work Ability Tables ), Aboriginal health infrastructure funding (the Environmental Health effects Scale ), assess medication compliance (the Asthma Medication Adherence Questionnaire ), home-carer burden, and dysphagia. His book Measuring Quality of Life in Health was published by Elsevier/ Churchill Livingstone (London, New York) in Rod has been a World Health Organisation (WHO) Consultant in Outcomes Research (2001) and Situational Analysis for policy (2002); an invited rapporteur on Quality of Life Measurement for the UK Economic & Social Research Council, UK's leading research funding and training agency (2003); invited referee for the U.K. National Co-ordinating Centre for Research Capacity Development (2004); and technical adviser to the Ministry of Health, P.R.China, on behalf of The World Bank for the H8 Health Service Quality Improvement Program (2006/2007). He is a member of the U.S. Society of Judgment and Decision Making, and the European Association for Decision Making, and is working on a book outlining our understanding of the subconscious, cognitive, and emotional characteristics of decision making and how we can use this understanding to improve decision making. Further information may be found at or rod@rodoconnorassoc.com Alternatively phone Rod on

4 Workshop Outline (note this may be amended) A Introduction The new understanding of the way we make decisions Effects on economics, finance, law, management, and healthcare B The way we make decisions The old rational decision making, utility theory, and classical normative decision theory The new - bounded awareness and bounded rationality Conscious and unconscious perception and judgment Heuristics and biases : framing, anchoring, availability bias, the representativeness heuristic, confirmation bias, loss aversion and prospect theory, neglect of probability, hindsight bias, the effect of beliefs, choice effects, influences on risk taking Naturalistic decision making : pattern recognition, feasibility and action When thinking too much leads to bad decisions, and instant decisions are the best ones Creativity and inspiration C The role of emotions Emotion and decision making are entwined The Affect heuristic Forecasting future feelings Adaptation - why the sum is less than the parts D The importance of believing, deception, liking, and following Placebos The role of deception Biases concerning others Attribution error, correspondence bias Deception and discrimination Group effects in teams and hierarchies Consensus its limits, and lessons for intellectual trends E Application to health care Prospect theory and health Patient decisions Medical errors Expert intuition versus novice decision making Management decision aids, expert systems, complex decisions, and situational awareness F Conclusion Reconciling evidence-based medicine, heuristics and biases, systems theory, naturalistic decision making, and team approaches Knowing when to work against and when to work with ourselves For more information on Workshop Content, phone Rod O'Connor on , or rod@rodoconnorassoc.com

5 Making Better Decisions Workshop Friday 15 August am 4.30pm Northern Sydney Education Centre REGIISTRATIION FORM Fax tto:: $495 (inc. GST) includes Morning & Afternoon Tea and Lunch Title First Name Surname Position Organisation Address Town/Suburb State Postcode Telephone Fax * *(required for registration confirmation to be sent) Special Dietary Requirements PAYMENT (Fully Tax Deductible) A Tax Invoice will be sent TAX INVOICE ABN Cheque (must accompany registration and be made payable to ACHSE NSW). EFT (please forward remittance advice) Visa Mastercard Card Number: / / / Total Amount: $ Expiry Date: / Cardholder s Name: Cardholder s Signature: Payment Policy It is a condition of registration that full payment is received prior to the commencement of the event. Cancellation and Refund Policy If after registering for the event, you find yourself unable to come, we will refund your registration fee in full up until Friday 1 August Any cancellations made after this date and up until Friday 14 August 2008 will be refunded, less an administrative fee of $110. After Friday14 August 2008, we regret that NO REFUNDS can be given. You can at any time, however, substitute a replacement delegate at no charge or transfer your fee to a future Rod O Connor workshop. Insurance We strongly recommend that you take out an insurance policy if you have made flight or hotel reservations in order to attend this event. If, due to circumstances beyond our control, the event is cancelled, we cannot be held responsible for any loss of money due to cancelled flight or hotel bookings. Privacy Policy The collection of this information is primarily so that we can register you for this event. The information (excluding payment details) will be stored in the ACHSE database and may be used for future marketing of ACHSE events. If you are not a member of ACHSE and do not wish your details to be retained by the College, we ask that you notify us in writing to events@achsensw.org.au Please forward your completed registration form with payment to: ACHSE (NSW Branch) P O Box 341 North Ryde NSW 1670 Fax: For any queries, please contact: Karlah Van Arend Events Manager Ph: events@achsensw.org.au