State of the Region: A Broad Overview for Community Planning

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1 State of the Region: A Broad Overview for Community Planning Manuel Pastor, Director Center for Justice, Tolerance, and Community University of California, Santa Cruz Presented at: NII Cross-site sponsored by the Hewlett Foundation November 21, 2003

2 What s the State of the Bay Area... Median Household Income of the Census Tract 1999 Nine County Greater San Francisco Bay Area, California, Census 2000 Tract Shapes Guerneville Yolo Arden-Arcade Rancho Cordova Davis Sacramento NAPA COUNTY Santa Rosa SOLANO COUNTY Elk Grove SONOMA COUNTY Petaluma Fetters Hot Springs -Agua Caliente Sonoma Napa Fairfield Vacaville SACRAMENTO COUNTY MARIN COUNTY.-, 80 Vallejo Lodi W County Boundaries Major Roads Med. Hhld. Inc ,162 43,163-64,681 64,682-87,919 87, , , ,001 Scale equalts: 1 to 980, Miles N S E (/ 10 1 San Rafael.-, 580 San Francisco Richmond Daly City South San Francisco Berkeley (/ 10 1 Alameda San Mateo.-, 280 Oakland Redwood City SAN MATEO COUNTY San Leandro Hayward Pit tsburg Concord Antioch Fremont E. Palo Alto Mount ain Milpit as View Sunnyvale Santa Clara Cupert ino San Jose Palo Alto Walnut Creek Castro Valley.-, 580 Union City.-, 880 CONTRA COSTA Livermore Pleasanton ALAMEDA COUNTY SANTA CLARA COUNTY Tracy Stockton SAN JOAQUIN COUNTY STANISLAUS COUNTY Modest

3 Guerneville and Why Does It Matter? Median Household Income of the Census Tract 1999 Nine County Greater San Francisco Bay Area, California, Census 2000 Tract Shapes Yolo Arden-Arcade Rancho Cordova Davis Sacramento NAPA COUNTY Santa Rosa SOLANO COUNTY Elk Grove SONOMA COUNTY Petaluma Fetters Hot Springs -Agua Caliente Sonoma Napa Fairfield Vacaville SACRAMENTO COUNTY MARIN COUNTY.-, 80 Vallejo Lodi W County Boundaries Major Roads Med. Hhld. Inc ,162 43,163-64,681 64,682-87,919 87, , , ,001 Scale equalts: 1 to 980, Miles N S E (/ 10 1 San Rafael.-, 580 San Francisco Richmond Daly City South San Francisco Berkeley (/ 10 1 Alameda San Mateo.-, 280 Oakland Redwood City SAN MATEO COUNTY San Leandro Hayward Pit tsburg Concord Antioch Fremont E. Palo Alto Mount ain Milpit as View Sunnyvale Santa Clara Cupert ino San Jose Palo Alto Walnut Creek Castro Valley.-, 580 Union City.-, 880 CONTRA COSTA Livermore Pleasanton ALAMEDA COUNTY SANTA CLARA COUNTY Tracy Stockton SAN JOAQUIN COUNTY STANISLAUS COUNTY Modest

4 The Economy The state is in trouble and the region has been leading the way The NII communities are not well-placed even when recovery takes place, partly because of skills gap and nature of low-wage work

5 Unemployment rate 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% Annual in California Annual Unemployment, California San Francisco MSA Oakland MSA San Jose MSA Los Angeles MSA San Diego MSA 2% 0%

6 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Dot.Com to Dot.Bomb, Unemployment in Regionalized Recessions, California San Francisco MSA Oakland MSA San Jose MSA Los Angeles MSA San Diego MSA Unemployment rate Jan-00 Mar-00 May-00 Jul-00 Sep-00 Nov-00 Jan-01 Mar-01 May-01 Jul-01 Sep-01 Nov-01 Jan-02 Mar-02 May-02 Jul-02 Sep-02 Nov-02 Jan-03 Mar-03 May-03 Jul-03 Sep-03

7 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% The Recession Began Before 9-11 % Change in initial claims from 52 weeks prior, (based on a 3-week moving average) % change 2-Jan-99 2-Feb-99 2-Mar-99 2-Apr-99 2-May-99 2-Jun-99 2-Jul-99 2-Aug-99 2-Sep-99 2-Oct-99 2-Nov-99 2-Dec-99 2-Jan-00 2-Feb-00 2-Mar-00 2-Apr-00 2-May-00 2-Jun-00 2-Jul-00 2-Aug-00 2-Sep-00 2-Oct-00 2-Nov-00 2-Dec-00 2-Jan-01 2-Feb-01 2-Mar-01 2-Apr-01 2-May-01 2-Jun-01 2-Jul-01 2-Aug-01 2-Sep-01 2-Oct-01 2-Nov-01 2-Dec-01 2-Jan-02 2-Feb-02 2-Mar-02 2-Apr-02 2-May-02

8 30% Share of Share Private of Employment in Tech Sectorin Tech Sector 25% percent of total private employment 20% 15% 10% 5% San Jose California 0%

9 Tech Dot.Com To and Dot.Bomb, San Annual Jose Change in Employment Leads in the Way 20% 15% Annual Change in Employment 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% Total for California Total for San Jose San Jose Tech Sector -20% Year

10 Dot.Com to Dot. Bomb, Monthly Change in Employment in Jan-00 Apr-00 Jul-00 Oct-00 Jan-01 Apr-01 Jul-01 Oct-01 Jan-02 Apr-02 Jul-02 Oct-02 Jan-03 Apr-03 Jul-03 Dot.com Becomes Dot.bomb California Private Employment San Jose Private Employment San Jose Tech Sector Month/year Employment Normalized at 100 for January, 2000

11 250,000 High-Tech Goes Bust Stress in the Information Industry, , , ,000 50,000 Computer Systems Design & Related Serv. Telecommunications Semiconductor & Electronic Component Mfg. Electronic Instrument Mfg. Computer & Peripheral Equipment Mfg. Internet Serv Provid, Web Portals & Data Proc. Software Publishers Communications Equipment Mfg. 0 Jan-01 Mar-01 May-01 Jul-01 Sep-01 Nov-01 Jan-02 Mar-02 May-02 Jul-02 Sep-02 Nov-02 Jan-03

12 50% and Professionals Management & Computer Professions 45% 11.6% 40% 7.1% Computer Professional 35% Non-computer Professional 30% 25% 15.0% Management 19.8% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1.9% 19.9% 2.4% 18.7% 3.9% 5.0% 6.0% 4.0% San Mateo County One East Palo Alto Santa Clara County Mayfair Male Workers

13 40% Production and Maintenance Occupations Maintenance & Production Occupations 35% Production 30% Maintenance 25% 11.3% 18.4% 20% 15% 10% 5% 5.3% 20.8% 8.5% 17.3% 0% 4.0% San Mateo County One East Palo Alto Santa Clara County Mayfair 3.4% Male Workers

14 40% Production and Maintenance Occupations Maintenance & Production Occupations 35% 30% Production Maintenance 25% 24.5% 20% 8.6% 15% 10% 16.0% 5% 3.0% 7.5% 11.5% 0% 3.3% San Mateo County One East Palo Alto Santa Clara County Mayfair 2.1% Female Workers

15 100% Commute Times to Work in OEPA and Mayfair Commute Times to Work in One East Palo Alto and Mayfair 8% 7% 7% 7% 90% 80% 33% 28% 31% 28% 70% percent of population 60% 50% 40% 37% 48% one hour or more thirty minutes to one hour fifteen to thirty minutes 41% 49% 30% less than fifteen minutes 20% 10% 22% 16% 21% 16% 0% San Mateo County One East Palo Alto Santa Clara County Mayfair

16 Poverty in Mayfair and OEPA Poverty Levels and Types in One East Palo Alto and Mayfair 60% 50% % between 150% and 200% of poverty line % between poverty line and 150% of poverty line % below poverty rate percent of population 40% 30% 20% 14.0% 13.4% 11.8% 11.2% 5.2% 5.4% 10% 4.8% 16.2% 5.0% 16.8% 0% 5.8% San Mateo County One East Palo Alto Santa Clara County Mayfair 7.5%

17 Mayfair, percent population below 150% of the poverty line by 2000 Census Block Groups % Alexian Brothers Hospital Jose Figueres Mayfair-poverty Alum Rock Ave. 22% Mayfair Neighborhood San Antonio School 35% Cesar Chavez School Mayfair Park $ Lee Mathson Middle School Lo Bue Park $ Capitol US Highway 101 Public Schools Not Populated 21% N W E Miles S d:\data\gisca\projects\niis\niis_08.apr - Field: Census Block Goups View: Mayfair close-up - Layout: Mayfair, PPVBL pct pop below 150% poverty line Scale: 1 to 14,000

18 Pulgas One East Palo Alto, percent population below 150% of the poverty line by 2000 Census Block Groups San Mateo County Willow Cesar Chavez 28% OEPA-poverty Bay Costano One East Palo Alto Open Space Preserve Baylands Nature Preserve x Brentwood Oaks Willow Oaks Park Bayshore Freeway Highway % 31% University Clarke 43% 31% 15% San Francisco Bay O Connor Donohoe O Connor Public Schools County Border Not Populated Santa Clara County Miles S W N E d:\data\gisca\projects\niis\niis_08.apr - Field: Census Block Goups View: One East Palo Alto close-up - Layout: OEPA, PPVBL pct pop below 150% poverty line Scale: 1 to 21,000

19 Work is Good It s always the case that work is the best antidote to poverty Percent below 150% of Poverty Level Poverty threshold (150%) for a family of four is $27,585 0 Full-time / Year-Round Significant Work Part-time Little or No Work Household Poverty Rate by Householder Work Status, Bay Area,

20 But a Startling Percent of the Poor Are Working Hard Every Day Full-time / Year-Round 26% Little or No Work 44% Significant Work 11% Part-time 19% Composition of Poor by Work Status, Bay Area,

21 Who Are the Poor? 100% % 60% % % Asian/Other Latino African-American Anglo % Non-Poor Households Poor Households Composition of Poor and Non-Poor Households Headed by Working Age Person in the Bay Area,

22 100% Who Are the Working Poor? 90% % 70% % % % 30% 20% 10% 50.7 Asian/Other Latino African-American Anglo % Non-Working Poor Working Poor Composition of Working Poor and Non-Working Poor Households Headed by Working Age Person in the Bay Area,

23 Who Are the Working Poor? 1990s immigrant 18% 1980s immigrant 20% US-born 57% pre-1980s immigrant 5% Composition of Working Poor by Immigration Experience

24 Where Are the Working Poor? Location of Residence: Defined as areas where (150%) poverty rates exceeds 25%, and labor force participation is above average for poor areas. Location of Job: Defined by industrial composition for those who have full-time or significant work and head household living below 150 percent of the poverty line

25 The Working Poor in 2000, Definition 2 South Bay, Palo Alto, Fremont, San Jose, California, Census 2000 Tract Shapes South Bay, Palo Alto, Fremont, San Jose, California The Working Poor in 2000, Definition 2 Sunol Newark Fremont Redwood City ALAMEDA COUNTY East Pal o Al to Palo Alto (/ 101 Milpitas.-, 680 SAN MATEO COUNTY Los Alt os Hills Los Alt os Mountain View Loyola Sunnyvale Santa Clara.-, 880 East Foothills Alum Rock W N S E County Boundaries Major Roads Working Poor, Definition 2 < 25% blw. 150% of pov. level > 25% blw. 150% pov. & blw. avg. labor partic. > 25% blw. 150% pov. & abv. avg. labor partic. Scale equalts: 1 to 243, Miles.-, 280 Cupertino d:/data/gisca/working_poor.apr - field: Rnkwp02 - view: South Bay, Palo Alto, Fremont, layout: South Bay Palo Alto Fremont San Jose - Rnkwp02 Sarat oga Monte Sereno Campbell Los Gatos Burbank Cambrian Park San Jose Seven Trees SANTA CLARA COUNTY CENTER FOR JUSTICE, TOLERANCE AND COMMUNITY -

26 Industrial Composition 100% 90% % 70% 60% % Government 40% Services Transportation 30% 20% Manufacturing Construction Agricultural 10% 0% Working, Not Poor Working Poor Industry Composition for Working Non-poor and Working Poor, Bay Area,

27 100% Where Are the Jobs? 90% 80% 70% 44.4% 53.5% 60% Short or Moderate On-the- Job Training 50% 13.8% Long-term On-the-Job Training or Experience 40% 30% 6.9% A.A. or Post-Secondary Voc. Ed 14.2% 6.0% 20% 10% 34.9% B.A., M.A., Ph.D., Professional Degree 26.3% 0% San Jose MSA San Francisco MSA Educational/Experience Requirements of Job Openings in Three Bay Area MSAs,

28 The Bay versus the State 100% Educational/Experience Requirements of Net Growth in Two Bay Area Counties, , and California, % 80% 37.7% 34.8% 48.0% 70% 60% 12.4% 12.4% Short or Moderate Onthe-Job Training 50% 40% 6.8% 5.0% 11.7% Long-term Onthe-Job Training or Experience 30% 10.2% A.A. or Post- Secondary Voc. Ed 20% 10% 43.1% 47.8% 30.1% B.A., M.A., Ph.D., Professional Degree 0% San Jose MSA San Francisco MSA California

29 100% 90% Education and Workforce in Mayfair Education Levels for Workforce in One East Palo Alto and Mayfair and One East Palo Alto 9.9% 9.2% 80% 37.3% 21.7% 36.6% 17.3% 70% 16.7% percent of population 60% 50% 40% 29.9% 18.0% Percent with B.A. and above Percent with some college / A.A. 28.6% 30% 20% 18.2% 50.4% Percent with high school degree Percent with less than high school 17.2% 56.7% 10% 14.6% 17.6% 0% San Mateo County One East Palo Alto Santa Clara County Mayfair

30 Pulgas Comparison of 2002 statewide public school rankings on a scale of 1-10 with 10 being the highest ranking - Mayfair and One East Palo Alto Alum Rock Ave. US Highway % Alexian Brothers Hospital San Antonio School Jose Figueres San Mateo County Mayfair/EPA, Lo Bue Park $ Statewide 1 school Mayfair Park $ ranking Mayfair Neighborhood 1 Cesar Chavez School Lee Mathson Middle School C W illow O Connor llow Oaks Park Bay Cesar Chavez Costano 1 3 One East Palo Alto Bayshore Freeway Highway 101 Donohoe University 1 Clarke Brentwood Oaks O Connor Open Space Preserve Baylands Nature Preserve x Santa Clara County Eleanor Park N Miles Miles W S E d:\data\gisca\projects\niis\niis_11.apr - Field: Public Schools Views: Mayfair close-up, One East Palo Alto close-up - Layout: MayEPA, STRANK statewide school ranking Scales: Mayfair: 1 to 20,5000. One East Palo Alto: 1 to 30,000.

31 Statewide Ranking Of Public Schools In Each NII Relative To The County Ranking of Schools San Mateo County Average Cesar Chavez Lee Mathson Middle School San Antonio Santa Clara County Average For Schools Santa Clara County Average For Middle Schools Costano Cesar Chavez Brentwood Mayfair One East Palo Alto Ranking (1-10 with 10 being the highest rank)

32 Pulgas Comparison of 2002 public school rankings relative to similar schools on a scale of 1-10 with 10 being the highest ranking - Mayfair and One East Palo Alto Alum Rock Ave. US Highway % Alexian Brothers Hospital San Antonio School Jose Figueres San Mateo County Cesar Chavez Lo Bue Park Mayfair/EPA, Similar $ 1 1 Mayfair Park $ schools ranking Mayfair Neighborhood 1 Lee Mathson Middle School Cesar Chavez School C W illow O Connor llow Oaks Park Bay Costano One East Palo Alto Bayshore Freeway Highway 101 Donohoe University Clarke 3 8 Brentwood Oaks O Connor Open Space Preserve Baylands Nature Preserve x Santa Clara County Eleanor Park N Miles Miles W S E d:\data\gisca\projects\niis\niis_11.apr - Field: Public Schools Views: Mayfair close-up, One East Palo Alto close-up - Layout: MayEPA, SIMRANK public school ranking relative to similar schools Scales: Mayfair: 1 to 20,5000. One East Palo Alto: 1 to 30,000.

33 Academic Performance Index Growth From Cesar Chavez Comparison of public school in terms of API growth from Lee Mathson Middle School API Growth From San Antonio 27.4 Santa Clara County Average For Schools 37 Costano 25 Cesar Chavez 53 Brentwood 31.1 San Mateo County Average For Schools Mayfair One East Palo Alto

34 Public School Demographics Comparison of Public School Racial Demographics 100% 90% 80% 70% Asian/Pacific Islander/Other 60% Latino 50% 40% White 30% 20% 10% African American 0% Cesar Chavez Lee Mathson Middle School San Antonio Santa Clara County Average For Costano Cesar Chavez Brentwood San Mateo County Average For Mayfair One East Palo Alto

35 Percent Students Who Are Socio-economically Disadvantaged 100% Comparison of the Percent of Students Who Are Socioeconomically Disadvantaged 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Cesar Chavez Lee Mathson Middle School San Antonio Santa Clara County Average For Schools Costano Cesar Chavez Brentwood San Mateo County Average For Schools Mayfair One East Palo Alto

36 Parent Education Less Than High School 70% 2002 Comparison of Public Schools: Percent of Students Whose Parents Have Less Than High School Level Education 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Cesar Chavez Lee Mathson Middle School San Antonio Santa Clara County Average For Schools Costano Cesar Chavez Brentwood San Mateo County Average For Schools Mayfair One East Palo Alto

37 Parent Education College or More 50% 2002 Comparison of Public Schools: Percent of Students Whose Parents Have a College Level Education or Higher 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Cesar Chavez Lee Mathson Middle School San Antonio Santa Clara County Average For Schools Costano Cesar Chavez Brentwood San Mateo County Average For Schools Mayfair One East Palo Alto

38 How Do We Work Together? Increasing evidence that divided communities are vulnerable Reaching out to build power requires reaching in to build unity and understanding Data and analysis can help demystify difference and find the bases for common ground

39 20,000 East Palo Alto Demographics, Demographic Change in East Palo Alto 18,000 16,000 14,000 12, ,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Anglo African-American Latino Asian Pacific and Other

40 40 Median Age, African-Americans & Latinos Median Age for African-Americans and Latinos, California and OEPA African-American Latino California OEPA

41 Home Ownership in Mayfair and One East Palo Alto Percentage of the Population that Owns or Rents a Housing Unit 2000, One East Palo Alto and Mayfair Neighborhood Improvement Initiative 100% 80% P e r c e n t 60% 40% 20% 0% One East Palo San Mateo Mayfair Santa Clara NII Site Owns a Housing Unit Rents a Housing Unit

42 Mayfair, percent home owners by 2000 Census Blocks % Alexian Brothers Hospital Jose Figueres Mayfair-home ownership $ Alum Rock Ave. Mayfair Neighborhood San Antonio School Mayfair Park Lee Mathson Middle School Lo Bue Park $ Capitol Public Schools Not Populated Cesar Chavez School Percent home-owners Less than 25% 25% to 50% More than 50% US Highway 101 W N E Miles S d:\data\gisca\projects\niis\niis_08.apr - Field: Census Blocks View: Mayfair close-up - Layout: Mayfair, HPOW N pct home-owners Scale: 1 to 14000

43 Pulgas One East Palo Alto, percent home owners by 2000 Census Blocks San Mateo County Costano Open Space Preserve Willow Cesar Chavez OEPA-home ownership Bay One East Palo Alto University Clarke Baylands Nature Preserve x San Francisco Bay O Connor Willow Oaks Park Donohoe Public Schools County Border Not Populated Brentwood Oaks O Connor Bayshore Freeway Highway 101 Percent Home-Owners Less than 25% 25% to 50% More than 50% Santa Clara County Miles W N S E d:\data\gisca\projects\niis\niis_07.apr - Field: Census Blocks View: One East Palo Alto close-up - Layout: OEPA, HPOWN pct home-owners Scale: 1 to 21,000

44 Different Routes to American Dreams Ownership and Household Size by Ethnicity in One East Palo Alto 60% 50% 49.7% percent of households in size category 40% 30% 20% 17.1% 28.2% 42.1% 36.9% 14.0% one to two persons three to four persons five to six person seven or more persons 10% 5.0% 7.1% 0% Latino owners Black owners

45 Investing in Community Assets Population Percentage Children 17 Years and Under Nine County Greater San Francisco Bay Area, California, Census 2000 Tract Shapes Guerneville Santa Rosa SONOMA COUNTY Petaluma Fetters Hot Springs -Agua Cali ente Sonoma NAPA COUNTY Napa Fairfield Yolo SOLANO COUNTY Vacaville Davis New strategies Elk Grove require new capabilities Arden-Arcade Rancho Cordova Sacramento SACRAMENTO COUNTY MARIN COUNTY.-, 80 Vallejo Lodi (/ 10 1 San Rafael.-, 580.-, Richmond Pittsburg Concord Antioch Walnut Creek Stockton Berkeley CONTRA COSTA SAN JOAQUIN COUNTY , Oakland San Francisco Alameda San Castro Tracy Daly Leandro Valley City South.-, 580 Livermore County Boundaries Pleasanton Major Roads San Francisco Hayward Modes Union % Pop. Chldr. 17 Yrs. & Undr ALAMEDA COUNTY less than 20% (/ 10 1 City 20% - 25% San Mateo.-, % - 30% Fremont Redwood 30% - 35% E. Palo.-, 280 City Alto STANISLAUS COUNTY greater than 35% Mountain Milpitas Palo ViewSunny- vale Santa Scale equalts: 1 to 980,357 Alto Miles Clara San Jose Cupertino SAN MATEO Engaging local residents takes N COUNTY W E SANTA CLARA COUNTY time, vision, and credibility S d:/data/gisca/working_poor_02.apr - field: Pchldr - view: 9 Cnty., Bay Area, layout: 9 Cnty Bay Area - Pchldr CENTER FOR JUSTICE, TOLERANCE AND COMMUNITY -

46 Can We Make the Future? Building Power Building Coalitions Moving Agendas

47 Regional Scenarios & Community Change AREA of WORK Goal Political economy scenario/ change Possibilities Existing Organizing/Advocacy Opportunity Threat Own/Allies Barriers Actions to take Implications for our work Training/ Resources Workforce development Education Leadership Development

C ALAMEDA D ALAMEDA D ALAMO C ALBANY D ALVISO E AMERICAN CANYON F ANTIOCH F ANTIOCH G APTOS G

C ALAMEDA D ALAMEDA D ALAMO C ALBANY D ALVISO E AMERICAN CANYON F ANTIOCH F ANTIOCH G APTOS G C 94501 ALAMEDA D 94502 ALAMEDA D 94507 ALAMO C 94706 ALBANY D 95002 ALVISO E 94503 AMERICAN CANYON F 94509 ANTIOCH F 94531 ANTIOCH G 95001 APTOS G 95003 APTOS B 94002 BELMONT D 94920 BELVEDERE TIBURON