The Potential Risk of Phytophthora Dieback in the Greater Blue Mountains WHA

Transcription

1 The Potential Risk of Phytophthora Dieback in the Greater Blue Mountains WHA Zoe-Joy Newby, David Guest, Edward Liew & Daniel Ramp ACPP APPS DARWIN 2011

2 The GBMWHA and Dieback The GBMWHA and Dieback Inscription criteria Ongoing biological processes In-situ conservation Plant and animal diversity Tourism and economic trade Cultural heritage Phytophthora Dieback is a major potential threat to the GBMWHA

3 Phytophthora Dieback within GBMWHA Limited understanding of current distribution Positive isolations in intrinsic areas Evidence of dieback Identify areas at risk manage

4 Phytophthora Dieback Risk Potential Phytophthora Dieback Risk Potential What is the risk of Phytophthora Dieback occurring in the GBMWHA? How can we assess risk? What do we already know? What outcomes are we aiming for?

5 Developing the Risk Assessment Developing the Risk Assessment Rainfall Soil moisture Temperature Current disease localities Phytophthora Dieback topography Anthropogenic activity Soil type vegetation

6 Membership Variable classification using FUZZY analysis Temperature Optima Temp (C) Relative Risk tempmax Value High : Low : 0

7 Variable condition and optima Attribute Disease localities (Distance function) Temperature FUZZY Function Sigmoidial Sigmoidial symmetric Limits Decreasing risk with distance from disease centres Risk increasing to 21 C and decreasing beyond 24 C Rainfall Sigmoidial Risk increasing to 600mm; maximal risk 600mm Tracks, paths, roads (Distance function) Weight Sigmoidial Decreasing risk with distance from roads 2, 1 Slope Sigmoidial Increasing risk with increasing slope 1 Wetness Sigmoidial Increasing risk with increasing wetness Waterbodies (Distance function) Sigmoidial Decreasing risk with distance from waterbodies 1 Waterbodies, builtup areas, bare ground Exclusion Risk equals zero 0

8 TMax Water bodies Wetness TMin Roads Unsealed Roads Slope Rain Tracks Water bodies

9 TMax Water bodies Wetness TMin Roads Unsealed Roads Slope Rain Tracks Water bodies

10 Risk Level High : Low : 0.404

11 Results High risk areas: Blue Mountains NP Higher isolation rate Increased concentration of disturbance Low risk areas: Northern Wollemi NP Outside preferred climatic niche No current information of Phytophthora distribution

12 Outcomes Prioritise risk management Identify areas at risk of infection Identify and conserve locations of intrinsic value 1 Monitor disease progression and/or plant health Identify variables associated with the spread of disease 2 3 Spread Consider alternate scenarios e.g. climate change or access restriction Jul Oct Jan Apr

13 Future work Soil sampling for model verification Model optimisation using the most recent distribution information Clearly define and quantify variables associated with Phytophthora infestation and disease Spatial risk prioritisation

14 Acknowledgements Australasian Plant Pathological Society The Royal Botanic Garden: Julie Bates, Patricia Meagher, Vivien Young, Slobodanka Kraljevski, Fatima Ersoy, Floret Parker, Hannah Walters, Cheryl Newby, Kymberlie Newby, Kieren Scanlin, Christopher Horikx The University of Sydney Challis Bequest Society The University of New South Wales Blue Mountains World Heritage Institute: Donald Stammers, Rosalie Chappel, Sarah Terks National Parks and Wildlife Service: Michelle Barton, Shaun Elwood, Sharon Darven, Adrian Johnstone, Paul Godfrey, Blue Mountains City Council Blue Mountinas Bush Care: Lyndal Sullivan, Erin Hall, Matthew Rudge Emanuel Conomos, Gaye Winget