Peers, Neighborhoods and Immigrant Student Achievement: Evidence from a Placement Policy

Transcription

1 DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES IZA DP No Prs, Nighborhoods and Immigrant Studnt Achivmnt: Evidnc from a Placmnt Policy Olof Åslund Pr-Andrs Edin Ptr Frdriksson Hans Grönqvist Octobr 2009 Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft dr Arbit Institut for th Study of Labor

2 Prs, Nighborhoods and Immigrant Studnt Achivmnt: Evidnc from a Placmnt Policy Olof Åslund IFAU, Uppsala Univrsity and IZA Pr-Andrs Edin Uppsala Univrsity and IFAU Ptr Frdriksson IFAU, Uppsala Univrsity and IZA Hans Grönqvist SOFI, Stockholm Univrsity Discussion Papr No Octobr 2009 IZA P.O. Box Bonn Grmany Phon: Fax: iza@iza.org Any opinions xprssd hr ar thos of th author(s) and not thos of IZA. Rsarch publishd in this sris may includ viws on policy, but th institut itslf taks no institutional policy positions. Th Institut for th Study of Labor (IZA) in Bonn is a local and virtual intrnational rsarch cntr and a plac of communication btwn scinc, politics and businss. IZA is an indpndnt nonprofit organization supportd by Dutsch Post Foundation. Th cntr is associatd with th Univrsity of Bonn and offrs a stimulating rsarch nvironmnt through its intrnational ntwork, workshops and confrncs, data srvic, projct support, rsarch visits and doctoral program. IZA ngags in (i) original and intrnationally comptitiv rsarch in all filds of labor conomics, (ii) dvlopmnt of policy concpts, and (iii) dissmination of rsarch rsults and concpts to th intrstd public. IZA Discussion Paprs oftn rprsnt prliminary work and ar circulatd to ncourag discussion. Citation of such a papr should account for its provisional charactr. A rvisd vrsion may b availabl dirctly from th author.

3 IZA Discussion Papr No Octobr 2009 ABSTRACT Prs, Nighborhoods and Immigrant Studnt Achivmnt: Evidnc from a Placmnt Policy * Immigrants typically prform wors than othr studnts in th OECD countris. W xamin to what xtnt this is du to th population charactristics of th nighborhoods that immigrants grow up in. W addrss this issu using a govrnmntal rfug placmnt policy which provids xognous variation in th initial plac of rsidnc in Swdn. Th main rsult is that, for a givn shar of immigrants in a nighborhood, immigrant school prformanc is incrasing in th numbr of highly ducatd adults sharing th subjct s thnicity. A standard dviation incras in th fraction of highly ducatd adults in th assignd nighborhood incrass compulsory school GPA by 0.9 prcntil ranks. This magnitud corrsponds to a tnth of th gap in studnt prformanc btwn rfug immigrant and nativ-born childrn. W also provid tntativ vidnc that th ovrall shar of immigrants in th nighborhood has a ngativ ffct on GPA. JEL Classification: J15, I20, Z13 Kywords: pr ffcts, thnic nclavs, immigration, school prformanc Corrsponding author: Olof Åslund IFAU Box 513 SE Uppsala Swdn olof.aslund@ifau.uu.s * W ar gratful to David Cutlr, Richard Frman, Andra Ichino, Pr Johansson, Kvin Lang, Mikal Lindahl, Danil Pasrman, Nicol Schnwis and Eskil Wadnsjö for hlpful commnts and suggstions. W hav also bnfitd from commnts by sminar and confrnc participants at Th Institut for Fiscal Studis, Univrsity of Padova, Harvard Univrsity, Univrsity of Kalmar, Uppsala Univrsity, Stockholm Univrsity, th Nordic Summr institut in Labor Economics (Aarhus), th Nordic Migration Workshop (Hlsinki), and th Workshop on th Economics of Immigration (Vancouvr). Spcial thanks to Louis Knnrbrg and Jörgn Mon for prparing th data.

4 1 Introduction Immigrant studnts typically prform substantially wors than nativ studnts in th OECD countris. According to PISA, th prformanc gap btwn first gnration immigrants and nativs amounts to around half a standard dviation in math, rading, and scinc (OECD 2006). In this papr w xamin to what xtnt this is du to th charactristics of th nighborhoods in which th immigrants grow up. Sinc rcntly arrivd immigrants tnd to sttl in clos proximity to popl sharing thir thnic background (Stark 1991), w pay particular attntion to th charactristics of th thnic community. Thr is a larg litratur on th impact of rsidntial and school sgrgation on th outcoms of disadvantagd groups in gnral. But thr is not so much daling with immigrant childrn in particular. This is prhaps surprising givn that th charactristics of th nighborhood community can xrt particularly strong influncs on young migrants striving to find thir plac in th nw country. Morovr, th work by Hckman and coauthors (.g., Cunha and Hckman 2007) suggsts that th impact of th nvironmnt is mor pronouncd in disadvantagd familis. Th qustion w xamin also shds light on th rational for policis dsignd to shift th location of immigrants. Ths policis may com in th form of incntiv programs, such as Moving to Opportunity (s Kling t al. 2007), or dlibrat attmpts by th govrnmnts to rstrict th location choics of nw immigrants; th lattr kind of policis ar (or hav bn) practicd by many Europan countris (s Edin t al. 2004). It is an opn qustion whthr th charactristics of th thnic community has a causal ffct on immigrant studnt achivmnt. Ethnic concntration pr s may b bnficial if th nclav provids usful information on,.g., th workings of th ducation systm, but dtrimntal if rsidntial concntration hamprs proficincy in th host country s languag. But th charactristics of th contacts ar arguably at last as important. Wll-stablishd and ducatd prs may act as rol modls, but living among popl with poor socioconomic status and prformanc may hav a ngativ influnc on youth (cf. Cutlr and Glasr 1997). Our papr is rlatd to svral branchs of litratur. First, thr is a larg litratur on th impact of rsidntial sgrgation on adult minoritis (including immigrants) in gnral. 1 Th vidnc is somwhat mixd. Sgrgation pr s may hurt individuals (.g. Cutlr and Glasr 1 S,.g., Åslund and Frdriksson (2008), Brtrand t al. (2000), Cutlr and Glasr (1997), Edin t al. (2003), and Gol and Lang (2009) for rcnt contributions. 2

5 1997) but th litratur also points to th importanc of th quality of nighborhood contacts (Brtrand t al. 2000; Åslund and Frdriksson 2008). Scond, thr is a growing body of (largly U.S.) rsarch studying th ffcts of racial composition within schools or nighborhoods on studnt prformanc. 2 In gnral, ths studis suggst that th prformanc of black studnts is rducd by attnding schools with a larg fraction of black studnts. Third, thr is a small litratur xamining whthr thnic concntration affcts th school prformanc of immigrants. Corts (2006) studid th ffct of ag at arrival and attnding an nclav school on th tst scors of a sampl of first and scond gnration immigrants rsiding in th citis of Miami and San Digo in th U.S. Sh found that attnding an nclav school (dfind as on whr abov 25 prcnt ar forign-born) has no ffct on studnts' tst scors. 3 Fourth, thr ar som studis which xamin whthr immigrants labor markt succss is rlatd to th charactristics of th childhood nighborhood. 4 For instanc, Borjas (1995) found that (scond gnration) immigrants who grw up in thnic communitis with an abundanc of human capital did bttr on th labor markt. Th studis by Corts (2006) and Borjas (1995) ar dirctly rlvant to our papr. Howvr, as for many othr studis of contxtual ffcts, on could worry that slction problms bias th stimats in ths two studis. This is mainly bcaus a studnt s nighborhood or school is a family choic variabl. If rsidntial choic is basd on unobsrvd charactristics which also affct larning outcoms, th stimats will b biasd and cannot b intrprtd causally. W rly on a govrnmntal placmnt policy to gnrat xognous variation in th initial rsidntial distribution. Btwn Swdish authoritis assignd rfugs to thir initial location. Sinc individuals wr not fr to choos, w argu that th initial location was indpndnt of (unobsrvd) individual charactristics, an issu w will obviously rturn to blow. 5 2 S.g., Angrist and Lang (2004), Boozr t al. (1992), Card and Rothstin (2007), Groggr (1996), Guryan (2004), Hanushk t al. (2002), Hoxby (2000), and Rivkin (2000). 3 S Bygrn and Szulkin (2007) for a rlatd study using Swdish data. Jnsn and Rasmussn (2008) hav xamind whthr studnt outcoms ar rlatd to immigrant concntration using Danish data. Thir stimats suggst a ngativ impact of immigrant concntration on studnt prformanc. Nithr of ths studis in practic handls th problms causd by rsidntial slf-slction. 4 Th papr by Grönqvist (2006) blongs to this catgory. 5 W hav prviously usd this approach to study conomic outcoms among adult migrants; s Edin t al. (2003) Åslund and Frdriksson (2008) Åslund t al. (2006) and Åslund and Rooth (2007). Gould t al. (2004) us a similar placmnt policy whr Ethiopian rfugs wr distributd across Israli municipalitis to idntify th causal ffct of school quality on studnts' high school grads. Thr ar also paprs xploiting similar policis in Dnmark; s.g. Damm (2009a, 2009b). 3

6 Our stratgy is dmanding on data availability. W hav accss to administrativ rcords containing dtaild information on all studnts graduating from Swdish compulsory schools during Th data also contain rich individual information on th population ag from 1985 and onwards, and provid th opportunity to link childrn to thir parnts. This mans that w can idntify whn th individual arrivd, whr h or sh initially rsidd, th charactristics of his or hr parnts, and th proprtis of th nighborhood prs at diffrnt points in tim. Th rsults suggst that a standard dviation incras in th fraction of highly ducatd prs in th assignd nighborhood raiss compulsory school GPA by 0.9 prcntil ranks; a corrsponding incras in th siz of th thnic community in th assignd nighborhood has about th sam ffct, but th ffct is lss prcisly stimatd. Th ffcts of th charactristics of th thnic community ar largr among thos who arrivd bfor ag svn than for thos who arriv at an oldr ag. Had w not accountd for rsidntial slf-slction using th placmnt policy, our conclusions rgarding th impact of thnic concntration would hav bn vry diffrnt. Auxiliary rgrssions suggst that disadvantagd childrn (in th unobsrvd sns) ar sortd into nighborhoods with a high shar of mmbrs from thir own thnic group. Th sorting bias is so svr that th siz of th thnic community at th tim of graduation is ngativly rlatd to studnt outcoms. Sorting bias dos not plagu th stimat on th ducational composition of th thnic group, howvr. Th analysis also shows that th ffcts of th ducational composition of prs do not vary by gndr or parntal ducation. Howvr, th siz of th thnic community is mor important for boys and for childrn whos parnts ar lss-ducatd, two groups that hav th poorst school outcoms. Ths rsults shd light on th sorting bias alludd to abov. Having a lss-ducatd family background, for xampl, is arguably ngativly corrlatd with th unobsrvd dtrminants of school outcoms. Th rsults on htrognous ffcts thus suggst that it is rational for studnts from wak backgrounds to sort thmslvs into thnic communitis, which, again, is th sorting pattrn w obsrv in our data. Th abov rsults ar obtaind using nighborhood fixd ffcts, and thrby implicitly holding th ovrall population of immigrants constant. In auxiliary rgrssions, imposing mor rstrictiv assumptions, w also rport vidnc on how school prformanc is affctd by th siz of th total immigrant community. Ths tntativ rsults suggst that immigrant concntration is dtrimntal for school prformanc, but that th positiv ffcts of thnic concntration prvail. 4

7 Th rmaindr of this papr is organizd as follows. Th nxt sction provids background information on th ducational systm, how immigrant studnts prform in Swdish schools, and th placmnt policy which w bas our analysis on. In Sction 3, w prsnt th data. Sction 4 outlins th mpirical stratgy in mor dtail and contains th mpirical rsults. Sction 5 concluds. 2 Background 2.1 Immigration and rsidntial concntration in Swdn Swdn has a larg immigrant population: 12 prcnt (out of a population of 9 million) ar forign-born. Evn though Swdn has rcivd nt migration sinc th 1930s, th largr inflows bgan in th 1950s and 1960s as workrs wr rcruitd primarily from Finland, but also from Cntral and Southrn Europ and Turky. Starting in th 1970s, labor migrants wr gradually rplacd by rfugs and family runification migrants, a dvlopmnt which acclratd in th 1980s and 1990s. Th larg rfug inflows hav changd th sourc country composition of th immigrant population dramatically. Paralll to th dmographic changs thr has bn a dclin in th conomic prformanc of migrants. Today, Swdn stands out as on of th countris with th largst immigrant-nativ diffrntials in th labor markt (OECD 2007). As in othr Wstrn countris, th immigrant population is concntratd to crtain rgions and nighborhoods. Gratr Stockholm, Götborg and Malmö host about on third of th ovrall population but as much as half of th forign-born. Within largr rgions, immigrants tnd to b concntratd to particular aras, usually situatd in th suburbs (Åslund t al. 2006). Th rsidntial concntration is also rflctd in th immigrant shar of th nighborhoods populatd by th forign-born. 6 Th typical immigrant livs in an ara whr a quartr of th working-ag population is forign-born, which can b compard to th national avrag of 12 prcnt. Prvious studis show that th typical immigrant-dns nighborhood contains a mix of thnic groups. Such aras ar primary unitd by a shortag of nativs (Andrsson 2000). Still, diffrnt groups ar rlativly concntratd in diffrnt aras;.g. Iranians constitut a substantially largr shar of th forign-born in Götborg than in Swdn s othr major citis. Also at th finst gographic lvl this sgrgation is vidnt; popl hav substantially mor country-of-origin prs living in thir nighborhood than what can b xplaind by rgional 6 As dscribd in th data sction w us SAMS (Small Ara Markt Statistics) aras to dfin nighborhoods. 5

8 sorting or by a division of immigrants and nativs in gnral. W will rturn to this issu in th dscription of our sampl of child migrants. 2.2 Immigrants in Swdish compulsory ducation Compulsory ducation is 9 yars in Swdn and starts at ag 7; th typical ag at graduation is thus Thr is a national curriculum that all compulsory schools follow. Aftr compulsory school a vast majority go on to uppr-scondary ducation whr admission is basd on compulsory school grads. W study cohorts graduating th nin-yar compulsory school btwn 1988 and Within this tim-fram, th grading systm was rformd. Up until 1998, grads givn at graduation wr on a scal from 1 to 5 and rlativ in th sns that th national avrag for ach graduating cohort was to b 3.0. W us th GPA (i.. th man of th individual s grads), roundd to on dcimal. Givn that thr ar no obsrvations with GPA blow 1, thr ar 40 stps in th GPA for ths yars. From 1998, grads ar on an absolut scal, which is to b basd on prformanc only and not rlatd to th achivmnt of othrs. Each subjct givs on of th following points: 0 (fail), 10 (pass), 15 (pass with distinction), or 20 (pass with spcial distinction), and th GPA is dfind as th sum of th bst 16 grads. Th maximum scor is thus 320, th minimum is 0, and th distribution contains 80 obsrvd stps. Givn th diffrncs in th grading systm ovr tim, and th fact that thr is vidnc of grad inflation in th nw systm (.g., Cliffordson, 2004), w us th by-cohort prcntil ranking of th individual grad and includ cohort dummis in all stimations. Of spcial intrst for our study ar th ruls for allocating studnts to schools. Up until 1991, th Swdish compulsory school systm assignd studnts to th school situatd narst to thir rsidntial ara. This rsidnc principl is still th lading rul on how to allocat studnts to schools. Howvr, in 1992, th cntral govrnmnt introducd a school choic rform, whr parnts in principl ar fr to choos thir childrn's school within th municipality. It is important to not, howvr, that parntal prfrncs ar svrly constraind by spac limitations, and priority is always givn to kids rsiding clos to th school. Thus, th assignmnt of rfug childrn to nighborhoods to a vry larg dgr dtrmind which schools thy attndd. Also, sinc thr ar far mor nighborhoods than schools, controlling for ara of rsidnc ffctivly also mans controlling for schools. 7 S Björklund t al. (2005) for furthr dtails on th Swdish ducation systm. 6

9 Thr is ampl vidnc that immigrant childrn prform poorly in th Swdish school systm. 8 According to PISA 2003, th gap btwn th Swdish-born and th forign-born at ag 15 amounts standard dviations of th PISA scor distribution in math, rading and scinc (OECD 2006). Th gap btwn th nativ-born and immigrants is about twic as larg as th gndr diffrnc in rading. Within th immigrant group, thr ar big diffrncs dpnding on tim spnt in Swdn: thos who arriv aftr ag 7 prform substantially wors than thos who migrat bfor ag 7 (Böhlmark 2008). 2.3 Th rfug placmnt policy 9 In 1985, th Swdish Immigration Board was givn th task of assigning nwly arrivd rfug immigrants to an initial municipality of rsidnc. Th policy was introducd in rspons to complaints from citis that had xprincd a ris in immigration and prcivd this as a burdn on local public budgts. By placing asylum skrs in municipalitis that had suitabl charactristics for rcption th govrnmnt hopd to spd up th intgration procss. Bcaus of th larg inflow of asylum skrs in th lat 1980s, th numbr of rciving municipalitis was incrasd from 60 to includ 277 of Swdn's 284 municipalitis in Availabl public housing ssntially dtrmind th placmnt. Th policy was formally running , but th implmntation was strictst btwn 1987 and During this priod, th placmnt rat was around 90 prcnt, and th individuals involvd wr givn vry littl room to choos th initial municipality of rsidnc. Thrfor, w focus our analysis on th priod. Asylum skrs wr placd in rfug cntrs pnding a dcision from th immigration authoritis. Th cntrs wr locatd all ovr Swdn, and cntr assignmnt was indpndnt of port of ntry to Swdn. Th man duration btwn ntry into Swdn and th rcipt of a prmit varid btwn thr and twlv months during Aftr rciving th prmit, municipal placmnt occurrd within a much shortr priod of tim, partly bcaus thr wr xplicit goals for rducing th tim span btwn rcipt of th rsidnc prmit and placmnt. Rfug prfrncs wr considrd in th municipal assignmnt, but individuals applid for rsidnc in th largst citis whr thr wr fw vacancis bcaus of th conomic boom. Assigning a rfug to a municipality was conditional on having found a vacant apartmnt within that particular municipality. (Sinc individuals wr assignd to an 8 S Lundh t al. (2002) and Björklund t al. (2005), for instanc. 9 Edin t al. (2003) contains a mor dtaild dscription of th placmnt policy. As is common in th Europan contxt, w do not distinguish rfugs from asyls. 7

10 apartmnt, thy wr in practic assignd to a nighborhood.) Aftr having bn assignd to an apartmnt, rfugs wr basically fr to mov. Th only "cost" of moving, apart from dirct moving costs, was dlayd nrolmnt in languag courss Placmnt as a policy xprimnt Th a priori argumnts for considring placmnt as xognous with rspct to th unobsrvd charactristics of th individual ar th following: (i) th individual could not choos his or hr first plac of rsidnc du th institutional stup, th practical limitations imposd by scarc housing, and th short tim fram btwn th rcipt of rsidnc prmit and placmnt; (ii) thr was no dirct intraction btwn local placmnt officrs and individual rfugs, maning that any slction must hav bn on obsrvd charactristics. With rspct to th first point, not that th timing of th rcipt of th rsidnc prmit must coincid with th arrival of a housing vacancy in th prfrrd location, if th rfug was to raliz his or hr most prfrrd option. Th joint probability of ths two vnts happning at th sam tim must b considrd xtrmly low. 10 Prvious work substantiats th argumnt that th placmnt policy did crat a gographic distribution which was indpndnt of unobsrvd individual charactristics. Edin t al. (2003) showd that th ovrall gographic distribution of thos subjctd to th placmnt policy diffrd from th location choics mad by migrants arriving from th sam rgions shortly bfor th rform. Åslund t al. (2006) showd that th initial charactristics of th assignd locations diffrd pr and post rform; but aftr 9 10 yars in Swdn th sorting pattrn of thos who arrivd undr th placmnt policy cam to rsmbl that of othr migrants. W tak this as vidnc that popl wr not abl to raliz thir prfrrd option. A strict tst of our assumption that placmnt is xognous conditional on th obsrvabls is hard to com by sinc it rquirs a charactristic which was not xploitd by placmnt officrs but corrlatd with th unobsrvd ability of th individual. Nvrthlss, w hav xamind whthr th shar of highly ducatd in th thnic community ( thnic human capital ) in th assignd location is corrlatd with month of birth, which in turn is rlatd to various outcoms (Bound t al. 2000). Figur 1 prsnts th rgrssion cofficints on dummis for month of birth, along with a 95-prcnt confidnc intrval, holding constant th othr individual charactristics which potntially influncd placmnt. Thr is no systmatic rlationship btwn thnic human capital and month of birth. On of th individual cofficints is clos to bing significant. But this is not surprising: vn if thnic 10 Oropoulos (2003) uss a similar argumnt to motivat why assignmnt to a public housing projct can b considrd xognous for nw rcipints of wlfar paymnts in Toronto. 8

11 human capital and birth month ar randomly associatd w would xpct 1 of th 11 cofficints to b significant at th 9 prcnt lvl Month Figur 1 Ethnic human capital in assignd location by month of birth Nots: Th figur shows stimats (solid lin, 95 prcnt confidnc intrval givn by dashd lins) from a linar rgrssion of th shar of highly ducatd in th thnic community in th assignd location on a st of dummis for month of birth. Th modl also controls for gndr, ag at immigration, ag of th mothr, th ducational attainmnt of th mothr as wll as th fathr, family siz, country of birth fixd ffcts, nighborhood fixd ffcts, immigration yar fixd ffcts, and graduation yar fixd ffcts. Givn th institutional stting, and th information documntd hr, w think it is valid to assum that th assignmnt location is xognous to th child, conditional on his or hr obsrvd charactristics. Not that this assumption is lss strict than in,.g., Edin t al. (2003), sinc child and parntal charactristics ar not prfctly corrlatd Data W us administrativ data covring th ntir Swdish population agd for ach yar during Th data originat from administrativ rgistrs maintaind by Statistics Swdn and contain information on,.g., labor markt status, ducational attainmnt, incom, 11 Estimats of th intrgnrational arnings corrlation ar typically much lowr in Swdn than in th U.S. Corak (2006) rports prfrrd stimats for diffrnt countris: th stimat for Swdn is 0.27 compard to 0.47 for th U.S. 9

12 taxs, and various dmographic variabls. 12 An important fatur of th data is that w can link studnts to thir parnts and w ar thrby abl to includ information on svral parntal charactristics. W dfin parntal charactristics sparatly for ach parnt. Our main sampl consists of th childrn of rfugs whos parnts obtaind thir rsidnc prmit btwn th yars 1987 to Ths childrn may hav graduatd from compulsory school btwn 1988 and From 1988 and onwards thr is information on all final grads for studnts graduating from Swdish compulsory school. Th individuals wr btwn 0 and 16 yars of ag at migration. W idntify rfug immigrants by rgion of origin and xclud childrn who did not arriv togthr with th parnt who first cam to Swdn. Th motivation for xcluding ths individuals is that thy ar likly to hav immigratd bcaus of family runification rasons, and ths immigrants wr xmptd from th placmnt policy. In this papr w us SAMS (Small Ara Markt Statistics) aras to captur nighborhoods. SAMS aras ar dfind as homognous aras in crtain rspcts; it may b a homognous ara with crtain typs of buildings high-ris buildings, ownr-occupid housing, or businss complxs, for instanc. Th SAMS ar th smallst gographic unit availabl in Swdish data. Swdn has about 9,000 SAMS aras, which givs an avrag of 1,000 rsidnts (of which about 600 ar of working ag). Howvr, th avrag individual livs in an ara with 1,849 inhabitants agd Sinc th forign-born ar concntratd to urban aras it is not surprising to find that th avrag immigrant livs in a somwhat mor populatd ara; th avrag immigrant livd in a SAMS ara with 2,498 inhabitants agd Sinc individuals do not ntr th data bfor ag 16, w us th assignmnt location of th parnt(s) who arrivd togthr with th child to gt information on th first SAMS ara. W also masur th charactristics of th location obsrvd in th individual s yar of graduation. A potntial problm is that w only obsrv th rgion of rsidnc at th nd of th yar. If th obsrvd initial location diffrs from th actual initial placmnt du to intrnal migration, this crats a masurmnt rror in initial placmnt. This issu has bn thoroughly invstigatd in Edin t al. (2003) whr a wighting schm basd on aggrgat data on municipal rfug rcption from th Immigration Board was usd. Th stimats 12 Th ky rgistrs ar th incom tax rgistrs (Inkomst- och taxringsstatistikn), population rgistrs (Rgistrt för totalbfolkningn), th rgistr on ducational attainmnt (Utbildningsrgistrt), th grad-9 rgistr (Årskurs-9 rgistrt), and th multi-gnrational rgistr (Flrgnrationsrgistrt). 10

13 from th wightd rgrssions wr vry similar to th non-wightd ons, suggsting that this masurmnt rror is not a big concrn. Notic that, by and larg, schools aggrgat nighborhoods. Thr ar clos to 2,000 schools and 9,000 SAMS aras. In principl, it would b intrsting to xamin whthr it is th charactristics of th nighborhood or th school which mattr for studnt achivmnt. But in practic it will b vry hard to disntangl th two. Sinc th charactristics of th nighborhood will captur th nighborhood as wll as th schools, w choos to masur th charactristics at th nighborhood lvl. 13 Th outcom studid in this papr is th prcntil rank (by graduation yar) of th compulsory school GPA. Although not prfct, th GPA is th bst widly availabl summary masur of compulsory school prformanc in Swdn. Furthrmor, it is th basis for admission and slction to uppr scondary school. 3.1 A dscription of th sampl Tabl A1 and Tabl A2 provid som gnral dscriptiv statistics of th stimation sampl, containing a total of 20,039 individuals. Not unxpctdly, outcoms ar quit poor; th avrag prcntil rank of th GPA is 40. Th typical child migrant in th sampl was 8 yars of ag whn h/sh arrivd in Swdn. Thr ar slightly mor boys in th sampl (53 47) and man sibship siz is clos to 3, which is rlativly high by Swdish standards. A fair shar (16.5 prcnt) of th fathrs is not prsnt in th data. Among thos obsrvd, ducational information is unavailabl for about 11 (7.6) prcnt of th fathrs (mothrs). Th obsrvd distribution of ducation shows that about half th parnts hav only compulsory ducation. Thirty prcnt hav som short or long high school, and approximatly 20 prcnt hav obtaind ducation at th univrsity lvl. It is also clar that thr is variation in rgion of origin. Iranians ar th largst group, making up about a quartr of th sampl prcnt originat in Northrn Africa, 13.3 prcnt in Chil. About 20 prcnt of th individuals hav arrivd from diffrnt parts of Eastrn Europ and th formr USSR. Th dscriptiv statistics also show rsidntial concntration among th studid rfugs. Thr is substantial variation in th siz of th SAMS population in th sampl, but th avrag is highr than what is obsrvd in th ovrall population, which is consistnt with concntration to largr citis with highr population dnsity. Th immigrant shar in th 13 Thr is som scop for trying to disntangl th ffcts of school and nighborhood charactristics. Childrn in som nighborhoods go to diffrnt schools, and thr is tim variation in school catchmnt aras. But givn that thr ar substantial difficultis in idntifying catchmnt aras, w lav this ndavor for futur rsarch. 11

14 nighborhood (at th tim of graduation) is as high as 31 prcnt, which is much highr than in th ovrall population (12 prcnt). Concntration in th thnic dimnsion is vn strongr: on (a wightd) avrag, th groups studid constitut 0.6 prcnt of th workingag population, yt th avrag thnic shar in th nighborhood is 3.2 prcnt at th tim of graduation. 4 How do nighborhood charactristics affct immigrant studnt achivmnt? W bgin this sction by discussing spcification issus and our mpirical stratgy. W pursu two diffrnt spcifications. On is dsignd to stimat th impact of th siz of th immigrant community, th othr to stimat th impact of th charactristics of th thnic community, holding immigrant concntration constant. Th lattr spcification constituts our main mpirical approach. W thn turn to prsnting th rsults. Sction 4.2 xamins th impact of th siz of th immigrant community in th assignd location. Sction 4.3 prsnts th rsults prtaining to th charactristics of th thnic community; th sction contains th avrag ffcts as wll as sparat stimats by crtain obsrvd charactristics (gndr, parntal ducation, and ag at arrival), and som robustnss chcks. 4.1 Empirical stratgy and spcification issus To fix idas, considr th following simpl modl (whr w hav supprssd arrival tim fixd ffcts and graduation tim fixd ffcts for convninc). y ics = ln m m p p α xi + β ln X cs + β ln X s + β X s + λs + λc + ε ics (1) whr i indxs individuals, c countris of origin, and s nighborhoods (SAMS aras). y is th outcom of intrst (th prcntil rankd GPA), j X, j =, m, p, dnots th charactristics of th ()thnic community, th (m)igrant community, and th (p)opulation in th nighborhood. x i dnots a vctor of individual charactristics (th subjct s ag at immigration, th mothr s ag, mothr s and fathr s lvl of ducation, gndr and family siz). Notic that th ffcts of X ar idntifid vn if w trat λ as nighborhood fixd cs ffcts, sinc thr is variation across thnicitis within a nighborhood. Howvr, th ffcts X s X s m p of and ar not, sinc thr is no variation within a nighborhood. This obvious point s 12

15 dmonstrats a trad-off in th analysis: invstigation of som issus coms at th pric of strongr assumptions for idntification. Indd, a lot of th (Europan) policy discussion focuss on th consquncs of attnding immigrant dns schools or growing up in immigrant dns nighborhoods. To tackl this widr policy qustion, w rplac th nighborhood fixd ffcts with municipality fixd ffcts (thr ar 290 municipalitis). Th ffcts of, say, ar thn idntifid using th variation across nighborhoods within a municipality. Th stimats from this spcification will not suffr from bias du to individual slf-slction, givn that th placmnt policy gnrats variation in nighborhood charactristics which ar indpndnt of unobsrvd individual charactristics. But thr is a potntial for bias du omittd variabls at th nighborhood lvl, for instanc, du to corrlations btwn unobsrvd school quality and immigrant dnsity. 14 Th nighborhood fixd ffcts modl imposs a wakr st of assumptions. Thrfor w focus on this modl and thus laborat mostly on th importanc of th charactristics of th thnic community. 4.2 Th impact of siz of th immigrant community Tabl 1 rports th rsults of a barbons modl, whr w rlat immigrant studnt achivmnt to th sizs of th thnic and immigrant communitis. In column (1) w prsnt th rsults from th municipality fixd ffcts modl, whil column (2) contains th nighborhood fixd ffcts modl. Throughout w ntr th nighborhood charactristics in logs. 15 m X s 14 Notic, though, that th municipality fixd ffcts arguably absorb vrything rlatd to th labor markt. 15 Th log spcification is vry convnint sinc it implis that th rsults ar invariant to th prcis sgrgation masur usd; s Brtrand t al. (2000) on this point. Although convnint, th log spcification coms with a small pric. W ncountr som problms whn thr ar no fllow countrymn in th community. W dal with this issu by assigning an arbitrary low valu for th siz of th thnic community and thn includ a dummy variabl that indicats no othr fllow countrymn. Not that th inclusion of th dummy variabl implis that th procdur of assigning arbitrary valus to mpty clls will not affct th stimat on th nighborhood charactristics. Furthr, th stimat on th siz of th community givs th ffct of incrasing th siz of th community conditional on thr bing at last on prson from on s own thnic group in th nighborhood. 13

16 Tabl 1 A barbons modl Charactristics masurd at yar of arrival Siz of thnic community.646** (.247) Dpndnt variabl: Prcntil rankd GPA (1) (2).514* (.290) Siz of immigrant community 1.034** (.524) Population siz.879 (.554) (Initial) SAMS FE:s No Ys (Initial) Municipality FE:s Ys No Ethnic group FE:s Ys Ys Yar of arrival FE:s Ys Ys Yar of graduation FE:s Ys Ys Numbr of obsrvations 20,039 20,039 Nots: Nighborhood charactristics ar masurd in logs. Th sampl consists of rfug immigrants whos parnts arrivd during th priod and who compltd compulsory school not latr than All rgrssions control linarly for th subjct s and th mothr s ag, with dummis for ach parnt s ducational attainmnt (fiv lvls), family siz, gndr and missing valus. Standard rrors robust for clustring at th SAMS*thnic group lvl (5947 clls) in parnthss. ** = significant at 5 % lvl; * = significant at 10 % lvl Th intrprtation of th stimats in column (1) rlis on th assumption that w hav not omittd rlvant nighborhood variabls. Th fact that th cofficint on th siz of th thnic community only changs marginally whn w mov from column (1) to column (2) suggsts that omittd variabls ar not a big concrn. Th stimats in column (1) suggst a positiv impact of a largr thnic community. By contrast, thr is a ngativ ffct of xpanding th immigrant community. Notic that th stimat on th siz of th thnic community capturs th ffct of rplacing an immigrant of anothr thnicity with an immigrant of th subjct s own thnicity (sinc th ovrall siz of th immigrant community is hld constant). Th stimat on th siz of th immigrant community, on th othr hand, should b intrprtd as th ffct of incrasing th dnsity of immigrants of anothr thnicity (sinc th siz of th thnic community is hld constant). How should th magnituds b intrprtd? Sinc th nighborhood variabls ar ntrd in logs, a unit chang corrsponds to incrasing th siz of th community by around 170 prcnt. 16 Evaluatd at this chang, an incras in th siz of th thnic community in th assignd location has th ffct of raising immigrant studnt achivmnt (at graduation) by 0.65 prcntil ranks. An incras in th dnsity of othr immigrants would rduc immigrant prformanc by roughly a prcntil rank. On th basis of th stimats, w can also xamin what happns to studnt prformanc whn th siz of th thnic group changs, taking into account that this will also chang ovrall immigrant dnsity. Th ffct of incrasing th siz 16 This is just to say that (xp(1) xp(0)) 1.7. Notic that th standard dviation of th log of th siz of th thnic group is 1.3, i.., it xcds unity. 14

17 of th thnic community, holding only nighborhood population constant, quals 0.56 which is significant at th 5-prcnt lvl (th standard rror is 0.23). 4.3 Th impact of th charactristics of th thnic community Now, lt us turn to th impact of th charactristics of th thnic community. To analyz this issu w focus on th spcification including nighborhood fixd ffcts, a spcification which is robust to omittd variabls at th nighborhood lvl. Column (2) of Tabl 1 rports th stimats of th barbons modl, which only includs th siz of th own community. As notd, th ffct of incrasing th siz of th thnic community in th assignd location is positiv. But th rsult dos not yild so much insight into why this is th cas. To mak som hadway into this qustion w postulat what w think of as a pur pr ffcts modl. Our incarnation of this modl is that th studnt outcoms of immigrant childrn ar influncd by th ducational background of th childrn with whom th potntially intracts, in school as wll as in th nighbourhood. In practic w assum that X cs = (th numbr of highly ducatd adults with kids undr ag 18 in th thnic community). 17 It is straightforward to dcompos this quantity into thr componnts: (i) th numbr of adult countrymn (agd 25 65) living in th nighborhood (dnotd by N); (ii) th fraction of ths countrymn who ar high-ducatd, i.. hav at last thr yars of upprscondary ducation (which is dnotd by h); and (iii) th fraction of th highly-ducatd countrymn in th nighborhood who hav kids undr ag 18 (dnotd by π ). W thus hav X cs = ( N h π) cs cofficint on th componnts, w gt. Introducing this xprssion into quation (1), and attaching a sparat y ics 1 cs 2 cs = α xi + β ln N + β ln h + β3 ln π + λs + λc + ε cs ics (2) m X s p X s whr w hav supprssd and sinc thy do not vary within nighborhood and ar thus pickd up by th fixd ffcts. W mphasiz again that th nighborhood variabls ar masurd at th tim of immigration, sinc this is th only tim whn nigborhood charactristics ar xognous to th unobsrvd charactristics of th individual. Morovr, w xclud th parnt(s) of th individual whn calculating th nighborhood charactristics. 17 W would hav likd to hav a closr matching btwn th ag of th subjct (th immigrant child) and th ag rang of his potntial prs. Sinc th thnic communitis ar so small this not fasibl in practic. 15

18 Th spcification in (2) provids a convnint tst of what charactristics of th thnic community ar important, and to som xtnt why. If, th pur pr ffcts modl applis and it is th numbr of highly ducatd parnts that hav an impact on studnt prformanc. Th configuration 3 1 β = 0, β = β 1 = β2 β3 β = may suggst that th nighborhood is important bcaus all adults act as rol modls. In this cas, it is th numbr of highly ducatd in th ntir thnic community that mattrs; thr is no additional ffct coming 2 from th human capital of th parnts. In gnral, β 2 masurs th impact of incrasing th human capital of th community whil holding siz constant, whil β 1 givs th ffct of incrasing th siz of th community (contact availability) whil holding th ducational composition constant. This spcification can b sn as a way of stimating th impact of th assignmnt location invoking a minimum of assumptions. An altrnativ viw is to intrprt quation (2) as a rducd form of a structural modl whr school prformanc is affctd by cumulatd pr influncs btwn th tim of immigration and th tim of graduation (s Åslund and Frdriksson 2008 for furthr discussion) Baslin rsults Tabl 2 prsnts th baslin rsults rlating compulsory school GPA to nighborhood charactristics. Th tabl only rports th rsults of main intrst; th stimats on th othr includd charactristics ar prsntd in Tabl A3. Ths additional covariats xhibit th xpctd impact. Girls outprform boys by about 8 prcntil ranks on avrag. Parntal ducation has a substantial impact on outcoms: a univrsity ducatd mothr incrass th prcntil rank by ovr 11 points rlativ to a mothr with compulsory ducation (th stimats on fathr s ducation hav a similar flavor). Thr ar substantial prformanc diffrncs across birth rgions and also pattrns suggstiv of wors outcoms in largr familis, vn though ths pattrns ar wakr than what is somtims found in dscriptiv studis (Åslund and Grönqvist 2009). Lt us now turn to th stimats of th uppr panl of Tabl 2, whr school prformanc is rlatd to th charactristics of th assignd nighborhood. Both th siz and th ducational attainmnt of th thnic community hav a positiv impact on prformanc. Thr is no additional ffct coming from th human capital of th parnts. Th lattr rsult may b 18 W do not stimat th structural modl sinc, to idntify it, w would hav to assum that (i) th ntir history of pr charactristics (sinc immigration) is qually important and (ii) that th charactristics of th assignd location ar xcludabl from th outcom quation. Nithr of ths two assumptions is particularly attractiv. 16

19 somwhat surprising. On intrprtation is that highly ducatd adults in th thnic community act as rol-modls. Th magnituds involvd suggst that a givn chang in th ducational attainmnt of th thnic community is almost twic as important as th siz of th community. Howvr, if th stimats ar valuatd at th typical variation in th data thy ar about as important: on standard dviation changs in quality (ducation) and quantity (siz of community) improvs studnt prformanc by 0.9 prcntil ranks. Th ffct of quantity is lss prcisly stimatd (it is significant at th 10-prcnt lvl). Sinc th human capital of th parnts has no additional ffct on studnt prformanc, w mov on to th mor parsimonious spcification in column (2). Th siz of th cofficints is rducd somwhat but th lvl of human capital in th thnic community rmains statistically significant at th 10-prcnt lvl. 19 Tabl 2 Th rlationship btwn nighborhood charactristics and compulsory school grads Dpndnt variabl: Prcntil rankd GPA (1) (2) (3) Panl A. Yar of arrival Siz of thnic community.647* (.330).488 (.310).409 (.315) Shar with high ducation 1.141** (.511).987** (.498) 1.120** (.508) Shar of high-ducatd who ar parnts (.668) Intraction (siz and shar high-ducatd) (.059) Panl B. Yar of graduation Siz of thnic community.522** (.228) Shar with high ducation 1.256** (.566) Shar of high-ducatd who ar parnts ** (.196).680** (.207) 1.237** 1.386** (.519) (.530) (.533) Intraction (siz and shar high-ducatd) * (.065) (Initial) SAMS FE:s Ys Ys Ys Ethnic group FE:s Ys Ys Ys Yar of arrival FE:s Ys Ys Ys Yar of graduation FE:s Ys Ys Ys Numbr of obsrvations 20,039 20,039 20,039 Nots: Nighborhood charactristics ar masurd in logs. Th sampl consists of rfug immigrants whos parnts arrivd during th priod and who compltd compulsory school no latr than Panl A displays stimats of nighborhood charactristics masurd at th yar of arrival. Panl B shows th corrsponding stimats for th yar of graduation. All rgrssions control linarly for th subjct s and th mothr s ag, with dummis for ach parnt s ducational attainmnt (fiv lvls), family siz, gndr and missing valus. Column (2) prsnts stimats whr th cofficints ar valuatd at th man of th othr variabl. Standard rrors robust for clustring at th SAMS*thnic group lvl (5947 clls) in parnthss. ** = significant at 5 % lvl; * = significant at 10 % lvl Th intraction btwn quantity and quality may also mattr, i.., it may b mor (or lss) important to hav high quality prs in a sizabl community. Column (3) adds th intraction 19 An altrnativ valuation point is th standard dviation calculatd within thnic groups across nighborhoods (s Tabl A.1). This valuation point producs somwhat smallr ffcts but dos not chang th rlativ importanc of quantity and quality. 17

20 of th two variabls to th spcification. Th point stimat on th intraction is insignificant, and thrfor w drop this spcification from hr on. Th stimats in Panl A of Tabl 2 ar not subjct to bias du to rsidntial sorting. To illustrat th importanc of sorting bias, Panl B prsnts rsults from modls whr th charactristics of th thnic community ar masurd at th tim of graduation. Th rsults show that sorting bias is a concrn for th stimat on th siz of th community: th stimat is statistically significant and has th opposit sign compard to th corrsponding stimat in Panl A. Sorting bias dos not appar to affct th stimat on th ducational composition of th thnic community. W notd in th prvious sction that th studid rfugs bcam mor concntratd with tim in Swdn. Th siz of th thnic community in th nighborhood doubls btwn th tim of arrival and th tim of graduation. Th rsults in Tabl 2 imply that it is primarily lss-skilld familis (in th unobsrvd sns) that rlocat to nighborhoods whr thnic concntration is highr. This pattrn is similar to th findings of Edin t al (2003), who also conclud that sorting inflicts a ngativ bias on th stimat on th numbr of pr contacts. Not that w arriv at this conclusion dspit having vry flxibl controls for nighborhood and rgion of origin Analyss by subgroups W hav r-stimatd th baslin modl of column (2) in Tabl 2 for som dmographic subgroups; th rsults ar prsntd in Tabl 3. First w xamin if th ffcts vary by gndr. According to th stimats, boys (who prform poorly in school) ar significantly influncd by th numbr of prs, whras girls ar not. A similar pattrn is availabl in columns (3) and (4), whr th siz of th community has a positiv and significant for childrn from non-acadmic familis (who prform lss wll in school). Th ffcts of th human capital of th thnic community do not vary by gndr and ducational background. Th diffrntial ffcts of th siz of th pr group ar intrsting and shd som light on th sorting pattrn in our data. Boys and childrn with a lss-ducatd family background prform wors than avrag in school. Th obsrvd dtrminants of school outcoms ar, arguably, positivly associatd with th unobsrvd factors dtrmining school prformanc. Th rsults prsntd in columns (1) to (4) thus suggst that it may b bnficial for studnts from wak backgrounds to sort thmslvs into thnic communitis, which is also th sorting pattrn implid by th rsults in Tabl 2. 18

21 In columns (5) and (6) th sampl is split by ag at migration. Th assignmnt nighborhood charactristics ar only important for childrn arriving bfor ag svn. This could b intrprtd in two ways. First, it could b that skills ar shapd at low ags (cf. Cunha and Hckman, 2007). And, scond, th stimats could rflct a cumulativ ffct of pr contacts. Arriving at a young ag arguably mans longr xposur to th nvironmnt capturd by th includd variabl, and thrby a highr tratmnt dos. Tabl 3 Diffrntial ffcts with rspct to background charactristics. By gndr By parntal ducation By ag at immigration Boy Girl Acadmic Up until ag Aftr ag family svn svn Non-Acadmic family (4) (1) (2) (3) (5) (6) Siz of thnic community 1.279** ** 1.284**.543 (.396) (.450) (.473) (.454) (.449) (.409) Shar high ducatd 1.358** * 1.169* 1.903**.514 (.619) (.697) (.892) (.690) (.731) (.644) (Initial) SAMS FE:s Ys Ys Ys Ys Ys Ys Ethnic group FE:s Ys Ys Ys Ys Ys Ys Yar of arrival FE:s Ys Ys Ys Ys Ys Ys Yar of graduation FE:s Ys Ys Ys Ys Ys Ys Man (sd) of th dpndnt variabl (26.86) (28.54) (28.52) (25.63) (28.27) (27.22) Numbr of obsrvations 10,598 9,441 9,407 10,632 9,767 10,272 Nots: Nighborhood charactristics ar masurd in logs. Th sampl consists of rfug immigrants whos parnts arrivd during and who compltd compulsory school no latr than Whr appropriat, th rgrssions control linarly for th subjct s and th mothr s ag, with dummis for ach parnt s ducational attainmnt (fiv lvls), family siz, gndr and missing valus. Standard rrors robust for clustring at th SAMS*thnic group lvl (5,947 clls) in parnthss. Acadmic family is dfind as having at last on parnt who has compltd at last univrsity prparatory uppr-scondary school. ** = significant at 5 % lvl; * = significant at 10 % lvl Robustnss chcks W hav prformd a numbr of robustnss chcks to invstigat whthr our rsults ar snsitiv to changs in sampl composition, spcification or outcom masur. In this sction w discuss th rsults from ths xrciss. On concrn is that nighborhood ffcts may b non-linar. For instanc, th ffct of living in an thnic nclav might mattr mor for individuals rsiding in vry highly sgrgatd aras. To xamin this w ran rgrssions including quadratic trms for our ky variabls of intrst. It turns out that th stimats on th non-linar trms ar not significantly diffrnt from zro. Anothr concrn is that small sourc countris hav bn aggrgatd for confidntiality rasons in our data. Trating such rgions as a singl country obviously introducs masurmnt rror in our analysis. W thrfor r-stimatd our modls for individuals for whom w can uniquly idntify country of origin. It turns out that th cofficints ar not statistically significantly diffrnt from our baslin stimats. 19

22 W also xprimntd with altrnativ outcom variabls. On rlvant qustion is whthr sgrgation influncs host country languag skills. W hav thrfor run rgrssions whr th outcom is grad in Swdish. 20 Th rsults suggst that thr is no impact of thnic prs for Swdish grads: th stimat on th siz of th community is 0.01 (with a standard rror of 0.28) and th stimat on th shar high ducatd is 0.52 (with a standard rror of 0.45). Th wakr ffcts for this particular outcom can b intrprtd in svral ways. If it is th human capital of th thnic prs that mattrs, it is rasonabl that w stimat smallr ffcts whr adults hav lss to contribut; anothr contributing factor is that thr may b wakr incntivs to larn th host country languag in thnic nighborhoods. Finally, w hav invstigatd to what xtnt thnic concntration affcts th probability to finish school on schdul. In fact, 22 prcnt of our sampl finish 9 th grad latr than normal. It turns out that ths stimats ar vry imprcis. Thr is no vidnc that pr charactristics influnc th probability to graduat in tim. 5 Concluding rmarks This papr studis pr ffcts in compulsory school prformanc among immigrant childrn in Swdn. To handl sorting in th rsidntial markt, th analysis uss a govrnmntal rfug placmnt policy in plac in th lat 1980s and arly 1990s. Th rsults show that prs mattr. Th siz of th local thnic community is positivly rlatd to compulsory school grads. Sparating this ffct into its componnts, w find that a highr lvl of ducation among fllow countrymn in th assignd nighborhood has a positiv ffct: A standard dviation incras in th fraction of highly ducatd prs raiss studnt prformanc by 0.9 prcntil ranks. A standard dviation incras in th siz of th thnic community has about th sam ffct, but th ffct is lss prcisly stimatd. Is this a small or larg ffct? At first glanc, it may sm small rlativ to th importanc of individual or family charactristics. For instanc, it corrsponds roughly to a tnth of th grad diffrnc btwn rfug immigrants and th nativ-born in our data. But w think it would b a mistak to conclud that th charactristics of th nighborhood ar largly irrlvant. Whthr th magnituds involvd should b intrprtd as small or larg dpnds on th tru structural modl rlating studnt prformanc to nighborhood or pr charact- 20 Ths stimats should b intrprtd cautiously sinc immigrant studnts ar allowd to choos btwn two diffrnt tracks: a standard track and a spcial track for immigrants. This introducs a potntial slction problm; howvr, w find no vidnc suggsting that th thnic ntwork affcts th choic of track. 20