Isolating the Impact of Learning Communities and First-Year Residence Halls on First-Year Student Retention and Success

Transcription

1 Isolating th Impact of Larning Communitis and First-Yar Rsidnc Halls on First-Yar Studnt Rtntion and Succss Robrt C. Gull rojct Managr of th Lilly rojct to Transform th First-Yar Exrinc Indiana Stat Univrsity

2 Abstract This par showcass th succss of Indiana Stat Univrsity s Lilly rojct to Transform th First-Yar Exrinc in incrasing first-yar rtntion and GA attainmnt and provids statistically sound and significant vidnc that Larning Communitis and First-Yar Rsidnc Halls playd a substantial rol in that succss. By mploying logistical and linar rgrssion tchniqus, w know that on-quartr of th ightrcntag point incras in rtntion sinc 1994 is du to larning communitis and that Larning Community participants achiv highr first-smstr GA s. W know that on-fifth of th incras is du to participation in first-yar rsidnc halls and that such participation also incrass first-smstr GA s. Introduction Indiana Stat Univrsity s Lilly rojct to Transform th First-Yar Exrinc bgan in 1997 with a 5-yar $2 million grant from th Lilly Endowmnt. Th Endowmnt s goal was to incras th ducational attainmnt of Indiana adults and to accomplish this it fundd a varity of fforts in th stat s public and privat univrsitis. ISU s stratgy to rais graduation rats was to incras first-yar rtntion rats by mploying first-yar Larning Communitis. Simultanously, ISU s Rsidntial Lif division of its Offic of Studnt Affairs was rforming th housing arrangmnts for first-yar studnts. Starting from th point in 1994 whn th grant application was mad, first-yar rtntion rats at ISU hav risn from 64% to 72%. This par rports th rsults of statistical analysis that isolats th marginal contribution of ths rforms to that ight-point incras. Using data from 1999 through 2001 and mploying linar and logistic rgrssion tchniqus it was dtrmind that much of th ight-rcntag point incras can b attributd dirctly to ths programmatic ndavors. Scifically, using logistical rgrssion, it was shown that on-quartr of th incras is du to Larning Communitis (s) alon. Similarly, thos sam logistical rgrssions indicatd that th cration of scial first-yar rsidnc halls () accountd for on-fifth of th incras. It was also dtrmind using linar rgrssion that ths programs incrasd first smstr GA s in a statistically and practically significant fashion. participants had GA s approximatly.16 points highr than thir qually situatd non- collagus and program participants had GA s.11 points highr. Finally to gaug th financial impact of ths rforms w notd that th ight-rcntag point incras in first-yar rtntion not only translatd into additional sophomors, but mor juniors and sniors as wll. Accounting for th incrass in th numbrs of studnts at all lvls that rsult from ths rtntion incrass it was dtrmind that ISU, with narly 12,000 studnts, bills $2.1 million mor in tuition annually than it othrwis would hav. Considring that ths programs cost lss than a fifth of that, ths rforms ar obviously working quit wll from a financial standpoint as wll.

3 Data Th data for this study coms from th acadmic fils of approximatly 6,000 first-yar studnts who nrolld at ISU from 1999 to Th variabls usd for prdicting rtntion and GA attainmnt ar fairly standard and ar brokn into two catgoris: prntry variabls and programmatic variabls. r-ntry variabls ar important for two rasons: bttr studnts do bttr than poorr ons and bttr studnts ar mor likly to b attractd to curricular innovations than poorr ons. It is for ths rasons that vrbal and math SAT scors, high school GA, and class rank, whthr or not th studnt is first-gnration and th incom class of th studnts familis ar includd. Also includd in th pr-ntry variabl list is an indicator variabl, CORE40, which accounts for th fact that th Stat of Indiana cratd a stat-wid curriculum for its collg-bound high school studnts. This Cor 40 curriculum, as th nam suggsts, rquirs forty crdit hours with an y toward collg prparation. Among th important faturs, th curriculum rquirs 3 yars of math and scinc, 4 yars of Languag Arts as wll as two yars of forign languag. Entranc into Indiana s prmir Rsarch 1 institutions (Indiana Univrsity and urdu Univrsity) rquirs such a Cor40 diploma whil othr institutions mrly ncourag prosctiv studnts to work on this collg track. Approximatly 60% of ISU s studnts rciv such a high school diploma. Th prsumption is that studnts on a collg track in high school will rform bttr in collg onc thy gt thr than studnts not on a collg track. Th rmaining variabls ar th focus of this par. articipation in Larning Communitis, th cntrpic of th Lilly rojct, is voluntary for many and mandatory for fw. Majors in th Schools of Tchnology, Nursing and Businss hav s that ar mandatory unlss studnts ar transfrring from othr institutions or hav schduling difficultis that prclud participation. Majors in r-md, Communication, Social Work, Lgal Studis, Art, Music, Criminology, sychology, or thos who ar On rfrnc or conditionally admittd may chos to participat. Th final variabl indicats participation in th first-yar rsidnc hall program. Startd in th yar prior to s (1997) this program was not fundd by th Lilly rojct but was stablishd by th Offic of Studnt Affairs and its Rsidntial Lif division to nhanc rtntion using what was known about th importanc of social adjustmnt. Th program includd thr important faturs: th concntrating of most frshman in thr halls, th stablishmnt of Acadmic r Advocats (upr-class studnts ach assignd to two floors with th task of hlping studnt acadmic adjustmnt) and th concntration of programming in th first wks of th smstr to combat gnral problms of adjustmnt, as wll as scific ons rlatd to alcohol and drug us and sxual halth. Bcaus Cor40 is only an appropriat variabl for studnts who graduatd from high school in th last 3 yars and bcaus w conduct th survy of studnts whr thy giv us thir parnts incom and ducational attainmnt at our summr rgistration and advising program, including ths variabls impacts th siz of th datast. Thus, including th Cor40 variabl alon rducs th datast from 3014 obsrvations to 2863,

4 whil including th incom and first-gnration variabls alon rducs th datast to Including both variabls rducs th datast to Variabl Dscription SATM SAT Math (or ACT quivalnt) SATV SAT Vrbal (or ACT quivalnt) HSGA High School GA HSRank High School Class Rank FG First Gnration Collg Studnt =1 if ys =0 if no $20K-$40K Family incom btwn $20,000 and $40,000 $40K-$60K Family incom btwn $40,000 and $60,000 >$60K Family incom gratr than $60,000 Cor40 Collg Track High School Diploma (only rlvant for Indiana High School Studnts =1 if ys =0 if no Larning Community articipation =1 if ys =0 if no First-Yar Rsidnc Hall =1 if ys =0 if no Mthodology-Dtrmining Th Impact of rograms Th marginal impacts of Larning Communitis and First-Yar Rsidnc Halls wr dtrmind using linar and logistic rgrssion. Bcaus th dndnt variabl in a rtntion quation is a binary variabl, linar rgrssion, whil yilding paramtrs that ar asy to intrprt, is inappropriat. In such a cas, logistical rgrssion is usd to stimat th dgr to which any particular variabl impacts rtntion. It is important to rcall that both tchniqus crat stimats that control for th impact of othr variabls. In linar rgrssion th paramtrs suggst th impact of variabls dirctly whil in logistical rgrssion th impact of on indndnt variabl on th dndnt variabl dnds on th lvl of th othr indndnt variabls. For th prsnt analysis logistical rgrssion is appropriat to stimat th factors involvd in rtntion. To dtrmin th marginal impact of th particular program rquirs that th paramtr stimats from th logistical rgrssion b usd to crat stimatd rtntion probabilitis both with and without th programs paramtrs. Thus if th undrlying logistical rgrssion is Y = + + whr Y =1 if rtaind, =0 othrwis, a vctor of pr-ntry variabls, =1 if involvd in Larning Communitis, =0 othrwis, =1 if involvd in First-Yar Rsidnc Halls, =0 othrwis, thn th marginal impact of th program is th diffrnc in th prdictd probabilitis.

5 Marginal Impact Th marginal impact of th program is takn by gtting th probability of bing rtaind givn participation in th program(s), and comparing that to th probability of bing rtaind givn non-participation in th program(s). For xampl, th marginal impact of s is MI whr Y Y with without = Y with Y without = 1+ = Th marginal impact of th First-Yar Rsidnc Hall program is similarly stablishd. Marginal Impact of Both rograms Unlik linar rgrssion whr th marginal impacts of ach program can b dirctly aggrgatd to gnrat th impact of all programs combind, in logistical rgrssion th sum of th marginal impacts can b gratr than or lss than th marginal impact of participating in all of th programs. Gnrating th marginal impact of all programs combind on rtntion is rformd in a similar fashion to that shown abov and is MI = Y all Y non whr Y Y all non = 1+ = Th Effct on GA Estimating th impact ths programs hav on first smstr GA attainmnt is substantially lss difficult. Using linar rgrssion 1 th paramtr stimats ar dirctly rad from th quation 1 whil a two-limit Tobit would b mor appropriat in this circumstanc thr ar so fw rfct 4.0 GAs and (imrfct) 0.0 GAs to mak such an accommodation to statistical nictis practically unimportant.

6 GA = γ + γ + γ and th marginal impacts of s and participation in s ar th paramtrs? and? rsctivly. Rsults- Dtrmining Th Impact of rograms Though flawd statistically, linar rgrssion rsults for dtrmining th impact of programs on rtntion ar usful in that thy can giv first-pass stimats in an asily undrstood fashion. Ths rsults ar shown in Tabl 1 and suggst that participation in Larning Communitis and First-Yar Rsidnc Halls significantly incras rtntion. Th rsults from Tabl 2 suggst a similar st of conclusions using logistical rgrssion. Tabl 3 displays th marginal impacts of ths programs. Larning Communitis and First-Yar Rsidnc Halls ach indndntly contribut to rtntion and togthr account for just undr half of th ovrall incras in rtntion sinc thy wr mployd. Dnding on th altrnat scifications, participation in Larning Communitis incrass rtntion by 4.8 to 5.8 rcntag points. Similarly, participation in First-Yar Rsidnc Halls incrass rtntion by 3.3 to 3.5 rcntag points. Bcaus logistical rgrssion paramtrs, unlik linar rgrssion paramtrs, cannot b simply addd togthr to gnrat combind ffcts of both programs, Tabl 3 also rports th aggrgat impact for participation in both programs. Studnts who choos to participat in both programs ar rtaind at btwn 7.7% and 8.7% highr rats than thir qually acadmically situatd first-smstr collagus. Larning Communitis and First-Yar Rsidnc Halls also contribut to first-smstr GA attainmnt in a statistically and practically important way. As is shown in Tabl 4, across diffring scifications participation in s incrass first-smstr GA attainmnt btwn.155 and.165 points. participation incrass GA attainmnt btwn.108 and.125 points. As a rsult, w can say that participation in this programs lads to not only highr rtntion rats but to GAs that ar.263 to.290 points highr than that attaind by thir qually acadmically situatd first-smstr collagus. Mthodology - Estimating Financial Impacts An ight rcntag point incras in th first-yar rtntion rat of any Univrsity has normous financial consquncs but thos consquncs partly dnd on whthr thos studnts ar rtaind until graduation, rtaind through graduation in roughly th sam fashion as thos who wr rtaind prviously, or drop out soon aftr thir sophomor yar. At ISU our scond and third yar rtntion rats ros and our conditional rtntion rats 2 rmaind rlativly constant. As a rsult, th incras in first-yar rtntion continus to hav rippl ffcts as thr ar not only mor sophomors ach yar but mor juniors and sniors down th road. Estimating th magnitud of th tuition 2 For instanc, th conditional scond-yar rtntion rat is th rcntag of sophomors who bcom juniors.

7 gnratd from ths ffcts and stablishing th programs to which ths savings can b attributd is th purpos of this sction. As can b sn in Tabl 5, with an ight-rcntag point incras in first-yar rtntion, thr ar 164 additional sophomors from a frshman class of Bcaus th conditional scond, third and fourth-yar rtntion rats rmaind roughly constant (at 81.9%, 84.7%, 44% 3,) ISU gains additional juniors and 164 additional fourth and fifth yar sniors. Thrfor th long-trm impact of th ight-point incras in rtntion rsults in a total of mor studnts nrolling at ISU. With in-stat studnts making up 85% of th studnt body and paying annual tuition of $3,744 and out-of-stat studnts making up th rmaining 15% and paying tuition of $9,346, ISU nts $2,119,729 in additional billabl tuition dollars. 4 Tabl 4 srvs to pars th rsponsibility for that $2.1 million to th programs that incrasd first-yar rtntion in th first plac. To stablish ths amounts, th marginal impact figurs from Tabl 3 ar usd to dtrmin th rcntag of th ight point incras in rtntion attributabl to ach program. Bcaus Larning Communitis incras th first-yar rtntion rat for participants by approximatly 5.4 rcntag points and bcaus 40% of first-yar studnts nroll in thos s, this innovation is rsponsibl for 26.5% of th incras in rtntion and $561,728 in incrasd tuition. Larning Communitis alon cost lss than $100,000 annually to orat. Similarly, bcaus First-Yar Rsidnc Halls hous 52% of first-yar studnts and bcaus bing in a adds 3.4 rcntag points to th rtntion rat of thos participating studnts, th program can accuratly claim 21.5% of th crdit for that ight rcntag point incras in first-yar rtntion. This amounts to $468,460 in additional tuition rvnu. Th additional cost to th campus for th Acadmic r Advocats and th programs surrounding First-Yar Rsidnc Halls is also lss than $100,000. Whil thr is ovrhad in ths first-yar programs, much of that ovrhad gos for othr programs aimd at rtntion that ar mor difficult to masur. For instanc, stablishing prcisly how much a rform to a currntly xisting program impacts rtntion is a mor difficult task. For instanc studnts who participat in our rformd Sycamor Advantag summr rgistration program gt a bnfit. On th othr hand a summr rgistration program xistd prior to th rforms. Similarly, mor than $600,000 was dvotd ovr th last fiv yars to faculty and staff dvlopmnt around first-yar issus. Establishing how much of th unaccountd for 52% of th ight rcntag point incras is attributabl to ths fforts will b th subjct of furthr study. 3 ISU s four-yar graduation rat is 22%. Thus 44% of 4 th yar sniors bcom 5 th yar sniors, 45% graduat and thrfor do not rturn and th rst ithr complt thir dgr aftr six or mor yars of do not finish thir dgr at all. 4 Th dgr to which this additional mony is forgon in highr financial aid grants from th institution is not obvious. Th financial aid budgt is a st amount and not a dirct function of total billabl tuition. Using that logic th ntirty of th $2.1 million is a nt incras. On th othr hand, th history of financial aid nds driv th financial aid budgt.

8 Conclusion Th Indiana Stat Univrsity s ffort to incras first-yar rtntion has clarly bn succssful. Th ight-point incras in first-yar rtntion has gnratd a numbr of important bnfits. Th most significant of ths ar th additional studnts and $2.1 million incras in tuition rvnu. This par has shown that just undr half of ths bnfits ar dirctly attributabl to two rforms, Larning Communitis and First- Yar Rsidnc Halls. Th par also dmonstrats that ths rforms impact studnt GA attainmnt as wll.

9 Tabl 1 Fall-to-Fall Rtntion Linar Rgrssion Fall 1999 and 2000 Co-horts Scification 1 Scification 2 Scification 3 Scification 4 N ara. Est Sig ara. Est Sig ara. Est Sig ara. Est Sig Intrcpt 0.500*** *** *** *** 0.045*** *** *** *** SATM SATV *** ** *** ** HSGA 0.122*** *** *** *** HSRank ** ** ** ** FG Cor * $20K-$40K $40K-$60K >$60K 0.043* R adj R

10 Tabl 2 Fall-to-Fall Rtntion Logistic Rgrssion Fall 1999 and 2000 Co-horts Scification 1 Scification 2 Scification 3 Scification 4 N ara. Est Sig ara. Est Sig ara. Est Sig ara. Est Sig Intrcpt *** *** *** *** SATM SATV *** ** ** ** HSGA 0.736*** *** *** *** HSRank ** ** ** ** FG Cor * $20K-$40K $40K-$60K >$60K 0.237* 0.202

11 Tabl 3 Marginal Impacts of rogrammatic Variabls From th Logistic Rgrssion Modls Scification 1 Scification 2 Scification 3 Scification 4 3.4% 3.3% 3.5% 3.3% 4.8% 4.8% 5.7% 5.8% Aggrgat 7.7% 7.7% 8.7% 8.6%

12 Tabl 4 First-Smstr Grad oint Avrag Linar Rgrssion Scification 1 Scification 2 Scification 3 Scification 4 N ara. Est Sig ara. Est Sig ara. Est Sig ara. Est Sig Intrcpt *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** SATM SATV HSGA *** *** *** *** HSRank *** ***.1180 *** *** FG * * Cor ** $20K-$40K $40K-$60K >$60K * * R adj R

13 Tabl 5 Estimating th Financial Impact of All rograms Annual Dollar Valu of All rograms= $2,119,729 Total Numbr of Additional Studnts = ( )=462.4 Numbr of Additional Sophomors= (.08*2050)=164 Numbr of Additional Juniors= (.819*164)=134.4 Numbr of Additional Sniors= (.847*134.4)=113.9 (.440*113.9)= =164 Wightd Avrag of Annual Tuition= $4,584 Total Numbr of Additional Studnts * Wightd Avrag of Tuition Numbr of Additional Sophomors+ Numbr of Additional Juniors + Numbr of Additional Sniors Incras in First-Yar Rtntion * Numbr of Frshman in a Typical Class Conditional Scond-Yar Rtntion Rat * Numbr of Additional Sophomors Conditional Third-Yar Rtntion Rat * Numbr of Additional Juniors + Conditional Fourth-Yar Rtntion Rat * Numbr of Additional (Ungraduatd) Sniors (In-Stat Tuition * rcntag of First- Yar studnts from Indiana) + (Out-of- Stat Tuition * rcntag of First-Yar studnts from outsid Indiana)

14 Tabl 5 Estimating th Financial Impact of Individual rograms Dollar Valu of Individual rogram= Larning Communitis Low (.215*$2,119,729)= $508,735 Intrmdiat (.270*$2,119,729)= $561,728 High (.290*$2,119,729)=$614,721 First-Yar Rsidnc Halls Low (.215*$2,119,729)= $455,742 Intrmdiat (.221*$2,119,729)= $468,460 High (.228*$2,119,729)=$483,298 Dollar Valu of All rograms *((rcntag Incras in First-Yar Rtntion Attributabl to th rogram) / (Total Incras in Rtntion)) rcntag Incras in First-Yar Rtntion Attributabl to th rogram Larning Communitis Low-nd (.048*.4)/.08=.240 Avrag (.053*.4)/.08=.265 High-nd (.058*.4)/.08=.290 ((aramtr stimat from Marginal Impact Tabl)*(rcntag of First- Yar opulation articipating in th rogram))/ (rcntag Incras in First-Yar Rtntion) Lowst valu of row in Tabl 3 Avrag valu of row in Tabl 3 Highst valu of row in Tabl 3 First-Yar Rsidnc Halls Low-nd (.033*.52)/.08=.215 Avrag (.034*.52)/.08=.221 High-nd (.035*.52)/.08=.228 Lowst valu of row in Tabl 3 Avrag valu of row in Tabl 3 Highst valu of row in Tabl 3