National FMD Response Planning

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "National FMD Response Planning"

Hillary Robinson
5 years ago
Views:

1 National FMD Response Planning Proactive Risk Assessment to Support and Managed Preparedness Movement of Livestock and Poultry Timothy J. Goldsmith DVM, MPH, DACVPM Center for Animal Health and Food Safety University of Minnesota College of Veterinary Medicine

2 Emergency Response for Catastrophic Livestock and Poultry Diseases Today's food system is based on fewer larger farms and global supply chain Consolidated vertically integrated system to efficiently produce safe, abundant, affordable food Just-in-Time food systems

3 Quarantine and Movement Control Control Areas are developed for geographic area for affected premises and nearby unaffected premises considered at-risk APHIS Framework for Foreign Animal Disease Preparedness and Response, Draft July 2010

4 Unintended Consequences Animal Health and Welfare Public Health and Welfare Environmental Health and Welfare Economic Health and Welfare of affected producers and food businesses Economic Health and Social Stability of communities Economic Health of the community and Nation

5 Preparedness and Response Goals 1. Detect, control, and contain the FAD in animals as quickly as possible 2. Eradicate the FAD using strategies that seek to stabilize animal agriculture, the food supply, the economy, and protect public health; and 3. Provide science- and risk-based approaches and systems to facilitate continuity of business for non-infected animals and noncontaminated animal products.

6 Continuity of Business (Managed Movement) FAD PReP; NAHEMS GUIDELINES: CONTINUITY OF BUSINESS; Draft July 2012

7 First 72 Hours of FMD Outbreak Source: USDA FAD PReP FMD Response Plan The Red Book, June

8 Secure Food Supply Projects Continuity of Business Development of protocols and tools to eliminate or minimize unintended negative consequences of the disease and disease response on agriculture and consumers while at the same time achieving the goals of disease control and response.

9 Key Elements of Continuity of Business Plans for Managed Movement during an Outbreak Proactive risk assessment Surveillance requirements Biosecurity guidelines C&D procedures Epidemiological information - trace forward/backward Permitting guidance required for movement of products Information management

10 Secure Food Supply Plans Secure Egg Supply High Path Avian Influenza (HPAI) Eggs and egg products Secure Turkey Supply HPAI Movement of birds Secure Broiler Supply HPAI Movement of birds, hatching chicks and eggs Secure Milk Supply Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) Movement of milk Secure Pork Supply FMD, Classical Swine Fever, African Swine Fever, and Swine Vesicular Disease Movement of animals (Adapted from slide, Courtesy Of Pam Hullinger UC Davis)

11 Why Proactive Risk Assessments? Evaluates risk proactively before an outbreak occurs to: Promote business continuity movement of non-infected animal and non-contaminated animal products from uninfected farms Facilitate emergency response planning Development / evaluation of mitigation measures applied to identified risk areas Informs movement permitting decisions A request for a movement permit Must be supported by a risk assessment (or a scientifically based logical argument) to demonstrate the risk of disease spread associated with the movement of the product is acceptable.

12 Work with industry to identify products of concern and establish priority Work with industry to describe normal business processes How does the process work? Select next highest priority dairy business process and repeat For selected product, develop detailed outline of daily production work flow iterate Recommend inclusion in federal, state and dairy business contingency plans. Make policy recommendations. Develop risk assessments to evaluate likelihood/consequences of product movement Develop risk mitigation steps for critical points in the production process iterate Communicate results of proactive RA and all draft agreements and procedures to broader stakeholder group Complete proactive risk assessment (RA) including risk mitigation steps for selected product and production process Develop draft compliance agreements, and standard operating procedures (SOP)

13 Proactive Risk Assessment Steps Scope and Assumptions Specific commodity, disease, and situation Infected but undetected farm scenario (conservative assumption not worst case ) Outbreak has already occurred

Hazard ID Proactive Risk Assessment Steps Characterize the virus behavior Historical outbreak information Literature Review Characterize the Industry Current industry structure, GMPs, SOPs,

14 Hazard ID Proactive Risk Assessment Steps Characterize the virus behavior Historical outbreak information Literature Review Characterize the Industry Current industry structure, GMPs, SOPs, regulations, etc Multiplication AI Stud Gilt Grow Out Isolation Artificial Insemination Center Commercial Sow Commercial Sow Isolation Breeding Isolation Breeding Gestation Gestation Farrowing Farrowing Commercial Nursery-Finisher Flow Site 2 Nursery Nursery Nursery Nursery Finisher Finisher Finisher Finisher Nursery Nursery Nursery Nursery Nursery Nursery Nursery Nursery Finisher Finisher Finisher Finisher Finisher Finisher Finisher Finisher

Proactive Risk Assessment Steps Pathway Analysis Identify

viral load in commodities and environment Disease Transmission

Vehicles, people, i.e. local area spread Step 2: HPAI

15 Proactive Risk Assessment Steps Pathway Analysis Identify pathways that allow movement of virus Modeling disease spread, viral load in commodities and environment Disease Transmission Model Step 1: Premises in Control Area becomes infected Vehicles, people, i.e. local area spread Step 2: HPAI infection is not detected before movement Possible movement of HPAI infected birds

Proactive Risk Assessment Steps Evaluate Risk; Entry / Exposure Assessment Qualitative and Quantitative approaches Expert opinion, literature review, and modeling approaches Each pathway and

20% Likelihood of Exposure as a Function of Distance Based on Spatial Transmission Models Expert opinion on risk factor for introducing Disease of Concern (by experts with field experience) Daily

16 Proactive Risk Assessment Steps Evaluate Risk; Entry / Exposure Assessment Qualitative and Quantitative approaches Expert opinion, literature review, and modeling approaches Each pathway and overall risk of movement 1.20% Likelihood of Exposure as a Function of Distance Based on Spatial Transmission Models Expert opinion on risk factor for introducing Disease of Concern (by experts with field experience) Daily Likelihood of Exposure 1.00% 0.80% 0.60% 0.40% 0.20% Dorigatti et al. (2010) Italy H7N1 Boender et al. (2007) Netherlands H7N7 Rorres et al. (2011) Pennsylvania H5N2 Number of responses (out of 8) Routine Biosecurity Outbreak Biosecurity extremely high high moderate low negligible 0.00% Distance From an HPAI Infected Poultry Premises (km)

17 Risk Categories Risk Category High Moderate Low Very Low Negligible Descriptor More than an even chance that the event will occur The event is unlikely but does occur It is very unlikely that the event will occur It is highly unlikely, but is not negligible Likelihood that event will occur is insignificant No Zero Risk

Proactive Risk Assessment Steps Develop / apply mitigation measures = Final Risk Level Each pathway and overall risk of movement Exposure risk close to the time of movement is reduced by PMIP

18 Proactive Risk Assessment Steps Develop / apply mitigation measures = Final Risk Level Each pathway and overall risk of movement Exposure risk close to the time of movement is reduced by PMIP biosecurity If the house is infected several days before movement, it would likely be detected via active surveillance. Start of PMIP The disease prevalence and the likelihood of detecting before movement would be lower than if exposure is earlier Scheduled movement date Exposure to HPAI several days before movement Dead Infectious Exposure to HPAI close to Movement Timeline Days

19 Proactive Risk Assessment Steps Permitting Guidance

Public Private Partnership Approach Government Industry Academic Focus on shared interests and responsibilities Understand perspectives and priorities Identify mutual benefits

20 Public Private Partnership Approach Government Industry Academic Focus on shared interests and responsibilities Understand perspectives and priorities Identify mutual benefits Adapt to changing realities and needs Increased knowledge of risk and science based approaches Recognition of acceptable risk Prevention & management as well as control & disposal

21 Secure Food Supply Partners Recommend: Implementation of the COB approach in state response frameworks Discuss regional harmonization and adoption Run Simulations, drills, and table tops exercises Include producers and processors in the discussions

22 Lessons Learned / Challenges Industry participation and input is necessary This is a new approach This is an ongoing process Communication Risk Management approach is not the single answer part of the solution NOT GOLDEN TICKET: Political Pressure and Public Perception still have great influence

23 Acknowledgments USDA AHPIS - VS USDA - AHPIS CEAH Center for Food Security and Public Health, Iowa State University University of California, Davis Industry Stakeholders

24 Questions / More Information Timothy J. Goldsmith DVM, MPH, DACVPM Gold0188@umn.edu Secure Food Supply Websites USDA FAD PReP Materials and References apath%3a%2faphis_content_library%2fsa_our_focus%2fsa_animal_health%2fsa_emergency_ma nagement%2fct_fadprep Thank You 24

Secure Food Supply Plans for the Poultry Industry 2014 Update

Secure Food Supply Plans for the Poultry Industry 2014 Update Timothy J. Goldsmith DVM, MPH, DACVPM University of Minnesota College of Veterinary Medicine Center for Animal Health and Food Safety Secure