4.2 DesigningStudies. 4.2 Designing Studies.notebook. August 20, 2015

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1 Bellwork: 8/13/15 Comment on each of the following as a potential sample survey question. Is the question clear? Is it slanted toward a desired response? A) Which of the following best represents your opinion on gun control? 1. The government should confiscate our guns. 2. We have the right to keep and bear arms. B) A freeze in nuclear weapons should be favored because it would begin a much needed process to stop everyone in the world from building nuclear war in the future. Do you agree or disagree? 4.2 DesigningStudies Objectives: > DISTINGUISHobservationalstudiesfrom experiments > DESCRIBEthelanguageofexperiments > APPLYthethreeprinciplesofexperimentaldesign > DESIGNcomparativeexperimentsusing completelyrandomizeddesign randomizedblockdesign(whichincludes matchedpairs) Aug 10 2:11 PM Aug 10 2:22 PM Observational Study vs. Experiment Menopause+ hormones = less risk of heart attack? explanatory variable whether a woman took hormones response variable whether a woman had a heart attack lurking variable number of doctor visits, age confounding did the women have fewer heart attacks because they took hormones or because they got better health care? Aug 11 4:03 PM Aug 11 4:04 PM 1

2 ObservationalStudy Observessomecharacteristic Measuresthatcharacteristic HasNOinluenceonthecharacteristicwe measure Allowsustodescribeapopulationintermsof thatcharacteristicwhenouroriginalsampleis random ExperimentalStudy (orjustplainexperiment) Imposessometreatment Measuresresponsestothattreatment Allowsustoinferacause effectrelationship Aug 10 2:22 PM Aug 10 2:23 PM ExtraneousVariables thosenotbeingstudiedwhichmayinluencetheresponse variable Ourgoalistodesigntheexperimentinsuchaway thattheextraneousvariablesoperateequallyonall treatmentgroups Aug 10 2:23 PM Aug 10 2:24 PM 2

3 Observationvs.Experiment LurkingVariable Confounding Deinition: Alurkingvariable isavariablethatisnotamongthe explanatoryorresponsevariablesinastudybutthatmay inluencetheresponsevariable. Confounding occurswhentwovariablesareassociated insuchawaythattheireffectsonaresponsevariable cannotbedistinguishedfromeachother. Aug 10 2:24 PM Aug 10 2:24 PM Aug 12 10:59 AM Aug 12 10:45 AM 3

4 Identify the experimental units/subjects, the explanatory variables, the treatments, and the response variables. Most American adolescents don't eat well and don't exercise enough. Can middle schools increase physical activity among their students? Can they persuade students to eat better? Investigators designed a "physical activity intervention" to increase activity in physical ed classes and during leisure periods throughout the school day. They also designed a "nutrition intervention" that improved school lunches. Each participating school was randomly assigned to one of the interventions, both interventions, or no intervention. The investigators observed physical activity and lunchtime consumption of fat. Experimental Units: Middle schools Explanatory variables: physical activity program and nutrition program Treatments: 1) activity intervention 2) nutrition intervention 3) both interventions 4) neither interventions Response variables: physical activity and lunchtime consumption of fat Aug 12 9:27 AM Aug 12 9:35 AM Principalsof ExperimentalDesign Control byholdingconstantvariableswebelieveeffecttheresponse variable Randomize sothatanyextraneousvariablesarerepresentedinall treatmentgroups Replication byhavingenoughsubjectssothatwecantellareal differencefromachancedifference Aug 10 2:25 PM 4

5 Deinition: Ina completelyrandomizeddesign,thetreatmentsare assignedtoalltheexperimentalunitscompletelyby chance. Someexperimentsmayincludea controlgroup that receivesaninactivetreatment,anexisting baseline treatment,orevennotreatmentwhatsoever! Deinition: Anobservedeffectsolargethatitwouldrarely occurbychanceiscalled statisticallysigniicant. Astatisticallysigniicantassociationindatafroma well designedexperimentdoesimplycausation. Aug 10 2:26 PM Deinition A block isagroupofexperimentalunitsthatareknownbefore theexperimenttobesimilarinsomewaythatisexpectedto affecttheresponsetothetreatments. Ina randomizedblockdesign,therandomassignmentof experimentalunitstotreatmentsiscarriedoutseparatelywithin eachblock. Deinition A matched pairsdesign isarandomizedblockedexperimentin whicheachblockconsistsofamatchingpairofsimilar experimentalunits. Chanceisusedtodeterminewhichunitineachpairgetseach treatment. Laundry Sometimes,a pair inamatched pairsdesignconsistsofasingle unitthatreceivesbothtreatments.sincetheorderofthe treatmentscaninluencetheresponse,chanceisusedto determinewithtreatmentisappliedirstforeachunit. 5

6 Activity: Pulse Rate Question: Are standing pulse rates generally higher than sitting pulse rates? Fizz Laboratories, a pharmaceutical company, has developed a new drug for relieving chronic pain. Sixty patients suffering from arthritis and needing pain relief are available. Each patient will be treated and asked an hour later, "About what percent of pain relief did you experience?" a) Why should Fizz not simply administer the new drug and record the patients' responses? b) Should the patients be told whether they are getting the new drug or a placebo? How would this knowledge probably affect their reactions? Aug 11 9:01 AM Aug 12 9:36 AM The Brigham Young University (BYU) statistics department is performing experiments to compare teaching methods. Response variables include students' final exam scores and a measure of their attitude toward statistics. One study compares two levels of technology for large lectures: standard (overhead projector and chalk) and multimedia. There are 8 lecture sections of a basic statistics course at BYU, each with about 200 students. There are four instructors, each of whom teaches two sections. a) Suppose we randomly assign two lecturers to use standard technology in their sections and the other two lecturers to use multimedia technology. Explain how this could lead to confounding. b) Describe a better design for this experiment. a) Every instructor has his/her own teaching style. If we assign it this way, and we find a difference between the two sets of sections, we will not know if the difference is due to technology or instructor. b) Use the instructors as blocks since each instructor teaches two sections. In one randomly chosen section, they would use standard technology and the other they would use multimedia. Aug 12 9:41 AM Aug 12 9:44 AM 6

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