The invisible gorilla strikes again Drew, Vo & Wolfe. Psychol Sci. Sep 2013; 24(9):

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1 The invisible gorilla strikes again Drew, Vo & Wolfe Psychol Sci. Sep 13; 24(9): radiologists were asked to perform a familiar lung nodule detection task. A picture of a gorilla, 48 times larger than the average nodule, was inserted in the last case. 83% of radiologists did not see the gorilla. Eye-tracking showed that the majority of the those who missed the gorilla looked directly at it Copyright 15 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,31,1 28 May 15

2 New Scientist. 9th April 11 pp -43 Copyright 13 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,31,1 There is no question that in virtually all circumstances in which people are doing things in order to get rewards, tangible rewards undermine intrinsic motivation Any observed statistical regularity will tend to collapse once pressure is placed upon it for control purposes Goodhart When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure Strathern Navigating landscapes Well defined processes and procedures 1 Situation relevant to Pressure coming from Sense of urgency is 1 Fairness is about Past Future Management Self-imposed Lacking and needed Over the top stressful Allocating responsibility All about sharing failure Present Peers Creating new process Copyright 15 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,31,1 28 May 15

3 Like bramble bushes in a thicket Complex Adaptive Systems are dispositional not casual in nature; modulated not driven Enabling but not governing constraints (endoskeleton not exoskeleton) Research and intervention are abductive not inductive (Cobra, butterfly & Hawthorn effects) Resilience & sustainability require exaptive not adaptive evolution Co-evolution as a dialectical interplay between unarticulated need & unknown capability Scaling requires imperfect copying and recombination not imitation Interactions between identities matter more than individual qualities in achieving change Copyright 13 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,31,1 Juarrero, A (2) Complex Dynamic Systems and the Problem of Identity in Emergence 4(1/2) B Managing inherent uncertainty with governing constraints simply increases the probability of catastrophic failure; or worse, the creation of a new breed of cynicism that masks failure with process or seeks to celebrate it by rebranding failure as learning. Dave Snowden Copyright 13 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,31,

4 1 Pressure from management Over the top stressful Over the top stressful.8 Deadlines too far.4 Well defined processes and procedures 1.2 An intense drive to achieve Self Imposed 1 1 Pressure from self Freedom too far Well defined processes and procedures Over the top stressful.2.. An intense drive to achieve Deadlines too far Pressure from self Over the top stressful 1 Self Imposed 1 1 Pressure from management An intense drive to achieve An intense drive to achieve 1 Understanding nuanced differences Freedom too far 28 May 15 Copyright 15 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,31,1 Cynefin Dynamics & cadence The natural cadence is between complex and complicated, exploration and exploitation; testing constraints for repeatability A full reset may be needed if that cadence is not maintained Only high stable things go into the obvious, and only if change is over an extended period of time Increasing we see a grazing dynamic where the pace of change means we need to maintain constant experiment approaches - major implications for architecture and modularisation Copyright 15 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,31,1 Complex Complicated Enabling constraints Governing constraints Emergent Practice Good Practice probe-sense-respond Chaotic Absence of constraints act-sense-respond Novel Practice sense-analyse-respond Obvious Rigid constraints sense-categorise-respond Best Practice 28 May 15

5 Navigating landscapes Well defined processes and procedures 1 Situation relevant to Pressure coming from Sense of urgency is 1 Fairness is about Past Future Management Self-imposed Lacking and needed Over the top stressful Allocating responsibility All about sharing failure Present Peers Creating new process Copyright 15 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,31,1 28 May 15 end Copyright 13 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,31,

6 Rethinking project flow One size does not fit all Chaos Complex Complicated Obvious Copyright 13 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,31, Scalable ethnography using human metadata Micro narratives or observations are the basic units of sense-making Meaning does not reside in text it is provided by human actors in context Acting intuitively, instantly Significant and growing issues with Big Data & Social Media: the tyranny of herds & algorithms Abstraction is key to interpretation, meaning making & reuse Description opens up more possibilities than evaluation More like these, fewer like those: intervention & advocacy The situation was analysed logically People made decisions based on principles Copyright 15 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,31,1 28 May 15

7 Community A 96% responded 12% 26% 8% 12% 8% 11% Community B 1% responded The patterning of indexing should reflect a rightward shift, especially in Teachermante, with WHG s entry into the market 2% It would indicate both that their education programs are gaining success, and that the villagers in Teachermante are moving toward 3% water thereby increasing22% purchase of treated its marketshare 6% Copyright 13 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,31,1 Exaptation in practice Question investment Question understanding Copyright 13 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,31,1 29%

8 Scaling as granular engagement Complexity does not scale by aggregation Reduce granularity, distribute cognition; radical recombination Engage the real C level & ecosystem Learn early, fail less Continuous real time feed back systems Copyright 13 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,31,