July Following is a guide to charts and graphs for this report:

Transcription

1 July 29 Strategic tourism marketing and policy decisions depend on accurate, consistent tracking of business indicators such as lodging statistics, attraction and welcome center visitation, transportation statistics and more. The intent of the North Carolina Travel Tracker is to provide up-to-date and relevant tourism indicators for both the state and individual regions within the state. With data from the Travel Tracker, program areas and industry partners can strategically plan, implement and evaluate processes and programs. The following report analyzes a variety of tourism indicators by 1) State, 2) the three geographic marketing regions (coastal, piedmont and mountain), and for some indicators 3) the seven economic development regions. As well as providing a review of the current state of business, the report provides a year-to-date analysis and comparisons to previous years where applicable. With regards to the lodging data found in this report; while virtually every chain in the United States provides Smith Travel Research (STR) with data on almost all of their properties, there are still some hotels that don't submit data. However, every year STR examines listings and directories for information on hotels that don't provide data. STR calls each hotel in the database every year to obtain "published" rates for multiple categories. Based on this information all hotels are grouped - those that report data and those that don't - into groupings based off of price level and geographic proximity. They then estimate the non-respondents based on nearby hotels with similar price levels. Following is a guide to charts and graphs for this report: Section 1 - Statewide Tourism Indicator Analysis for July 29 Chart 1 Hotel/Motel Occupancy in North Carolina July Chart 2 Hotel/Motel Average Daily Room Rate in North Carolina July Chart 3 Hotel/Motel Revenue per Available Room in North Carolina July Chart 4 Hotel/Motel Room Demand in North Carolina July Chart 5 North Carolina Lodging Statistics Monthly Chart 6 Statewide Visitation to Attractions July Chart 7 Statewide Visitation to Attractions Monthly History Chart 8 State Welcome Center and Local Visitor Center Attendance July Chart 9 Statewide National and State Park Visitation July Chart 1 Statewide Visitation to State Parks Monthly History Chart 11 Statewide Visitation to National Parks Monthly History Chart 12 Statewide Airport Arrivals and Departures July Chart 13 Lower Atlantic Average Monthly Retail Gas Prices for Unleaded July Chart 14 North Carolina Average Temperature and Precipitation July Section 2 Geographic Marketing Region Tourism Indicator Analysis for July 29 Chart 15 Hotel/Motel Statistics by Geographic Region July 29 Chart 16 Hotel/Motel Room Demand by Geographic Region July 29 Chart 17 Visitation to Attractions and Parks by Geographic Region July 29 Chart 18 State Welcome Center and Local Visitor Center Attendance by Geographic Region July 29 Chart 19 Airport Arrivals and Departures by Geographic Region July 29 Section 3 Economic Development Region Tourism Indicator Analysis for July 29 Chart 2 Hotel/Motel Statistics by Economic Development Region July 29 Chart 21 Hotel/Motel Room Demand by Economic Development Region July 29 Section 4 National Travel Price Index Chart 22 - National Travel Price Index December 26 July 29

2 Occupancy Section 1: Statewide Tourism Indicator Analysis for July 29 Chart 1 Hotel/Motel Occupancy in North Carolina - July Hotel/Motel Occupancy in North Carolina July % +1.2% -6.% Source: Smith Travel Research -11.7% % 4 year Chart 1 provides a comparison over a four year period to show the trend of occupancy in the state for the month of July. Occupancy for July has been declining sharply over the past two years. Occupancy at the national level also experienced a large decrease in July 29. It was down 7.3% from the previous July.

3 Average Daily Rate Chart 2 Hotel/Motel Average Daily Room Rate in North Carolina - July Hotel/Motel Average Daily Room Rate in North Carolina July $9. $79.9 $85.16 $87.22 $82.89 $8. $7. $6. $5. $4. $ % +7.7% +2.4% -5.% $2. $1. $ Source: Smith Travel Research +4.8% 4 year Chart 2 provides a comparison over a four year period to show the trend of average daily room rate (ADR) in the state for the month of July. The ADR for past years have shown a steady increase however this July experienced a significant decline (though still above 26 rates). ADR at the national level was down -9.1% in July 29 from the previous June.

4 Revenue per Available Room Chart 3 Hotel/Motel Revenue per Available Room in North Carolina - July $6. $5. Hotel/Motel Revenue per Available Room in North Carolina July $52.2 $56.75 $54.57 $48.19 $4. $3. $ % +9.1% -3.8% -11.7% $1. $ % 4 year Source: Smith Travel Research In Chart 3 an analysis of Revenue per Available Room (RevPAR) is provided. RevPAR is an industry term that describes the revenue that a hotel earns on the basis of just the rooms available for a given night. In other words, rooms not available either due to renovation or other reasons are not included in this equation. Mathematically, RevPAR can be determined dividing total room revenue by rooms available (occupancy times average room rate will closely approximate RevPAR). As with previous charts, Chart 3 shows a comparison over a four year period to show the trend of RevPAR in the state for the month of July. As with the ADR, RevPar was down significantly for July 29 relative to the previous year, and below 26 RevPAR. RevPAR at the national level was down -13.% in July 29 from the previous July.

5 Room Demand Chart 4 Hotel/Motel Room Demand in North Carolina - July ,, 2,75, 2,5, 2,25, 2,, 1,75, 1,5, 1,25, 1,, 75, 5, 25, Hotel/Motel Room Demand in North Carolina July ,752,29 2,789,747 2,665, % +1.4% -4.4% ,545, % -7.5% 4 year Source: Smith Travel Research Chart 4 depicts hotel/motel demand for the month of July 29 with comparisons to the previous three years. Demand is the number of rooms sold excluding complimentary rooms. Room Demand for July was down -4.5% from July 28. Room Demand at the national level also saw a decline with a -4.3% change in July 29 from the previous July.

6 Chart 5 North Carolina Lodging Statistics Monthly North Carolina Lodging Statistics Monthly Hotel/Motel Occupancy Revenue per Available Room Source: Smith Travel Research Average Daily Room Rate Demand Chart 5 provides a monthly percent change for the four major lodging indicators. The chart allows for a 13 month trend-line analysis that clearly depicts that the major indicators show a steady negative change. All indicators have dropped to negative percent change since January of 29. RevPAR is particularly low. Though much better than June, all indicators in July 29 still showed significant negative percent change.

7 Vistitors Chart 6 Statewide Visitation to Attractions - July Statewide Visitation to Attractions July , 7, 586,773 68, , ,11 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, +16.% -3.3% +8.8% % 4 year * reflects changes for those attractions, parks and centers reporting from year to year. Chart 6 provides a status of the attractions industry in North Carolina for the month of July for the last four years. The numbers represent only a sample of North Carolina attractions that provide their attendance data, and are not intended to be considered a complete list of attractions. However, the wide variation of type and location of the participating attractions allow for a valid aggregate trend analysis on a monthly basis, particularly when tracking percent change. Missing values for attractions who regularly report have been estimated until visitation can be verified. These estimates are not included in percent change calculations from July 28 to July 29. Unlike the significant decline in hotel/motel occupancy and demand during July 29 (as shown in previous graphs), there was a nine percent increase in attraction attendance for July 29 from July 28. Attendance is still well above 26 levels.

8 Visitors Chart 7 Statewide Visitation to Attractions Monthly History , 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Statewide Visitation to Attractions Monthly History Chart 7 shows a monthly trend of attraction visitation for each of the last four years. This chart allows for a view of the ebb and flow of monthly attraction attendance, while also providing a look at how attendance compares to the same month of the previous years. Not surprisingly, the summer months see higher visitation numbers at statewide attractions. However, it is helpful to view how visitation is allocated by month for strategic planning purposes. Again, the numbers represent only a sample of North Carolina attractions that provide their attendance data, and are not intended to be considered a complete list of attractions. However, the wide variation of type and location of the participating attractions allow for a valid aggregate trend analysis on a monthly basis. The July numbers are slightly higher than 27 levels and are at a four year high.

9 Clients Chart 8 State Welcome Center and Local Visitor Center Attendance - July ,, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Welcome Centers State Welcome Center and Local Visitor Center Attendance July ,78 326, % 862,43 748,78 73, ,79 276,28 286, Visitor Centers -2.5% -1.7% -5.4% +3.7% -12.4% 4 year Welcome Center visitation is calculated using an electronic count of vehicles entering the center during operating hours with a multiplier of 2.7 persons per vehicle. Visitor center method of counting varies by center, but percent change is a consistent measurement. Chart 8 provides July visitation statistics for State Welcome Centers, as well as Local Visitor Centers throughout North Carolina. It should be noted that while there is a percent change indicated for welcome centers for 28-29, this was the first year a percent change could accurately be provided. The NCDOT spent several years changing the counting mechanism at the state welcome centers making comparisons between years inaccurate from the time the DOT began installation until September 28. Therefore, previous year s numbers are not included in this particular chart.

10 Visitors Chart 9 Statewide National and State Park Visitation - July Statewide National and State Park Visitation July ,, 2,5, 2,, 1,5, 1,, +7.5% -11.9% +3.4% -1.4% -12.8% -3.2% +19.6% +2.4% 5, State Parks % National Parks -2.3% 4 year Chart 9 depicts visitation to state and national parks in North Carolina for the last four Julys. Both state and national parks visitation have increased over the past year, particularly state parks. With an almost twenty percent increase from July 28, this data shows that the decrease in gasoline prices and the increase in travelers staying closer to home and looking for less expensive activities has had a positive impact on state park attendance.

11 Visitors Visitors Chart 1 Statewide Visitation to State Parks Monthly History ,5, 2,25, 2,, 1,75, 1,5, 1,25, 1,, 75, 5, 25, Statewide Visitation to State Parks Monthly History Similar to Chart 7, Charts 1 and 11 provide a monthly trend of state and national park visitation for each of the last four years. These charts help monitor the flow of monthly attraction attendance, while also providing a look at how attendance compares to the same month of the previous years. It is important to note that there are many extraneous variables that can affect visitation at attractions, and particularly at outdoor attractions. Weather, temperature and holidays are variables that should be noted when viewing unusual highs or lows in attendance. Chart 11 Statewide Visitation to National Parks Monthly History ,75, 2,5, 2,25, 2,, 1,75, 1,5, 1,25, 1,, 75, 5, 25, Statewide Visitation to National Parks Monthly History

12 Passengers Chart 12 Statewide Airport Arrivals and Departures - July Statewide Airport Arrivals and Departures July ,25, 2,2, 2,15, 2,1, 2,5, 2,, 1,95, 1,9, 1,85, 1,8, 1,75, Departures Arrivals -1.8% -1.4% % +11.9% +2.8% +2.5% % +13.5% -1.1% -1.% Airports: Piedmont Triad International, Raleigh-Durham International, Charlotte Douglas International, Jacksonville, Asheville Regional, Fayetteville, and Wilmington International. Note that New Bern and Pitt-Greenville did not report in July. 4 year Chart 12 shows July airport arrivals and departures for each of the previous four years. There was a significant increase overall for July arrival and departures over the past four years. However, there was a slight decline for both from July 28 to July 29.

13 Dollars Chart 13 Lower Atlantic Average Monthly Retail Gas Prices for Unleaded - July Lower Atlantic Average Monthly Retail Gas Prices for Unleaded July $4. $3.72 $3.5 $3. $2.91 $2.71 $2.53 $2.5 $2. $1.5 $1. $.5-1.4% +38.5% -38.1% $ % Source: Energy Information Administration: 4 year Chart 13 provides the average price per gallon of unleaded gasoline for July 29 and the three previous Julys. The data provided above, when compared with other indicators such as attraction attendance and visitor spending data, can be very helpful in the analysis of general travel trends. Fuel prices in July were the lowest in at least three years.

14 Degrees and Inches Chart 14 North Carolina Average Temperature and Precipitation - July North Carolina Averge Temperature and Precipitation Data from July Series1 Series2 State Climate Offic of North Carolina: NC CRONOS Database: Chart 14 provides 13 months of air temperature and precipitation. This data, when analyzed together with gas price data and other tourism indicators, can be valuable in determining possible reasons for significant increases and/or decreases in indicators. For instance, greater than normal precipitation during a particular month can often help explain decreases in attendance at outdoor attractions. July 29 had a slightly lower precipitation than last July, but the temperature was the same.

15 Occupancy Rate and Dollars Section 2 Geographic Marketing Region (Coastal/Piedmont/Mountain) Tourism Indicator Analysis for July 29 Chart 15 Hotel/Motel Statistics by Geographic Region - July 29 Hotel/Motel Statistics by Geographic Region July $95.12 $ $ $ $ $ % -.4% -4.5% -9.% -7.% -15.9% -4.6% -4.9% -9.3%. Coast Piedmont Mountains Hotel/Motel Occupancy Average Daily Room Rate Revenue per available Room Source: Smith Travel Research Chart 15 provides a one year comparison in lodging statistics for the three geographic marketing regions of North Carolina. Occupancy rate in 29 decreased significantly in all three regions. The Coastal Region had the smallest percent change in occupancy levels. The largest ADR and RevPAR negative percent change from July 28 was in the Piedmont Region while the Coastal Region had the smallest negative percent change in ADR and RevPAR.

16 Room Demand Chart 16 Hotel/Motel Room Demand by Geographic Region - July 29 1,6, 1,4, Hotel/Motel Room Demand by Geographic Region July 29 1,413,131 1,2, 1,, 78,617 8, 425,589 6, 4, 2, -3.7% -6.3% -2.3% Coast Piedmont Mountains Source: Smith Travel Research Chart 16 provides hotel/motel demand by geographic region for July 29. Demand differs from occupancy in that it is the total number of rooms sold, not accounting for differences in room supply. The Piedmont Region experienced the largest percent change decline in demand from July 28 to July 29, and while that region clearly holds the largest volume of rooms in the state, the effect of decreased occupancy on the entire state is great.

17 Visitors Chart 17 Visitation to Attractions and Parks by Geographic Region July 29 Visitation to Attractions and Parks by Geographic Region - July 29 1,9, 1,8, 1,7, 1,6, 1,5, 1,4, 1,3, 1,2, 1,1, 1,, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, +11.7% -6.8% +1.4% +14.3% +25.7% +.3% -51.5% +26.8% +8.% Coast Piedmont Mountains Attraction State Parks National Parks * reflects changes for those attractions, parks and centers reporting from year to year. Chart 17 provides a look at the attractions industry in North Carolina in July 29 by geographic region. As with the statewide numbers, the following data represents only a sample of North Carolina attractions that provide their attendance data, and are not intended to be considered a complete list of attractions. However, the wide variation of type and location of the participating attractions allow for a valid aggregate trend analysis on a monthly basis. There was an overall increase in visitation for attractions in each region and for national parks in the Mountains in July 29. State parks saw a positive growth in visitation across the state.

18 Clients Chart 18 State Welcome Center and Local Visitor Center Attendance by Geographic Region July 29 State Welcome Center and Local Visitor Center Attendance by Geographic Region - July 29 3, 25,99 269,712 25, 216,488 29,432 2, 15, 1, 5, -6.9% +4.6% 48,94 21,18 +.6% +6.3% -.8% -9.4% Coast Piedmont Mountains Welcome Centers Visitor Centers Welcome Center visitation is calculated using an electronic count of vehicles entering the center during operating hours with a multiplier of 2.7 persons per vehicle. Visitor center method of counting varies by center, but percent change is a consistent measurement. Chart 18 shows welcome center and visitor center attendance by geographic region and offers comparisons from July 28. Even though welcome centers reflected a decrease in numbers, Piedmont and Coastal Regions visitor centers saw an increase in growth during the month of July.

19 Passengers Chart 19 Airport Arrivals and Departures by Geographic Region July 29 Airport Arrivals and Departures by Geographic Region - July 29 2,5, 2,96,989 2,16,864 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, 75,397 76, % +6.2% -1.5% -1.4% 29,336 Coast Piedmont Mountains 29, % +7.8% Departures Arrivals Airports: Piedmont Triad International, Raleigh-Durham International, Charlotte Douglas International, Jacksonville, New Bern, Pitt-Greenville, Asheville Regional, Fayetteville, and Wilmington International. Chart 19 provided a breakdown of air travel statistics by geographic region. While the majority of air traffic is through the Piedmont Region, it is helpful to maintain a trend of other regional airport usage. The Piedmont Region experienced a slight drop in air traffic during the month of July, while the Coastal and Mountain Region experienced increases.

20 -.2% +1.3% +1.1% -6.3% +.1% -6.2% -3.7% -2.9% -6.5% -6.9% -8.9% -15.2% -2.2% -3.7% -5.8% -14.8% -8.2% -21.8% -4.6% -4.9% -9.3% Occupancy Rate and Dollars 59.5 $47.65 $44.47 $38.88 $ $ $61.35 $77.69 $8.1 $77.48 $73.75 $75.37 $88.54 $92.88 $ Section 3: Economic Development Region Tourism Indicator Analysis - July 29 The seven economic regions include: 1 Northeast (Bertie, Camden, Chowan, Currituck, Gates, Halifax, Hertford, Northampton, Pasquotank, Perquimans, Beaufort, Dare, Hyde, Martin, Tyrrell, Washington). 2 Eastern (Carteret, Craven, Jones, Onslow, Pamlico, Duplin, Edgecombe, Green, Lenoir, Nash, Pitt, Wayne, Wilson). 3 Southeast (Brunswick, Columbus, New Hanover, Pender, Bladen, Cumberland, Hoke, Richmond, Robeson, Sampson, Scotland). 4 Triangle (Franklin, Harnett, Johnston, Vance, Wake, Warren, Chatham, Durham, Granville, Lee, Moore, Orange, Person). 5 Triad (Alamance, Caswell, Guilford, Montgomery, Randolph, Rockingham, Davidson, Davie, Forsyth, Stokes, Surry, Yadkin). 6 Carolinas (Alexander, Catawba, Cleveland, Iredell, Rowan, Anson, Cabarrus, Gaston, Lincoln, Mecklenburg, Stanly, Union). 7 Western (Alleghany, Ashe, Avery, Buncombe, Burke, Caldwell, Clay, Graham, Haywood, Henderson, Jackson, Macon, Madison, McDowell, Mitchell, Polk, Rutherford, Swain, Transylvania, Watauga, Wilkes, Yancey). Chart 2 Hotel/Motel Statistics by Economic Development Region - July Hotel/Motel Statistics by Economic Development Region July Region 1 Northeast Region 2 Eastern Region 3 Southeast Region 4 Triangle Region 5 Triad Region 6 Carolinas Region 7 Western Hotel/Motel Occupancy Average Daily Room Rate Revenue per available Room Source: Smith Travel Research Chart 2 provides lodging indicators for July 29 by economic development region. Also shown are percent changes from July 28. This graph allows individual regions within the state to track indicators specific to their general destinations, while still being able to compare their data to the state data shown in Section 1.

21 Room Demand Chart 21 Hotel/Motel Room Demand by Economic Development Region - July 29 Hotel/Motel Room Demand by Economic Development Region July 29 6, 525, ,985 5, 425,589 4, 327, ,999 3, 24,898 2, 14,534 1, -.2% -4.4% -.3% -5.2% +1.4% -11.4% -2.3% Region 1 Northeast Region 2 Eastern Region 3 Southeast Region 4 Triangle Region 5 Triad Region 6 Carolinas Region 7 Western Source: Smith Travel Research Chart 21 depicts hotel/motel demand for the month of July 29 by economic development region. Demand is the number of rooms sold excluding complimentary rooms. In July, the Triad Region had an increase in demand from July of 28.

22 Travel Price Index Section 4: National Travel Price Index The Travel Price Index (TPI) measures the seasonally unadjusted inflation rate of the cost of travel away from home in the United States. The TPI is based on U.S. Department of Labor price data collected for the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI). The TPO is released monthly and is directly comparable to the CPI. Variables included in calculating the TPI: Recreation Services Food and Beverage Alcohol Away From Home Food Away from Home Other Lodging (Include Hotel/Motel) Transportation Airline Fares Intra-city Public Transportation Motor Fuel Other Intercity Transportation Chart 22 National Travel Price Index December 26 July National Travel Price Index December 26 - July Index 28 Index 27 Index Source: U.S Travel Association and U.S. Department of Labor. Chart 22 provides a two year trend of the National Travel Price Index (TPI). Steady growth was experienced through mid-28; however in November 28, it is clear that as the TPI fell below 27 levels, the tourism industry began feeling the full effect of the recession. Into 29, the July TPI remained well below the 28 index level and is remaining slightly below the 27 level after dropping below in March. *Hotel/Motel statistics are from Smith Travel Research, Inc.; all other figures are from the Division of Tourism and NC State University. North Carolina Division of Tourism, Film and Sports Development 31 N. Wilmington Street 4324 Mail Service Center Raleigh, North Carolina Tel: (919) Fax: (919)