LIFE CYCLE COST AND RISK ESTIMATION OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT OPTIONS. David Shropshire and Michael Sherick, Lockheed Idaho Technologies Company'

Transcription

1 i LIFE CYCLE COST AND RISK ESTIMATION OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT OPTIONS David Shropshir and Michal Shrick, Lockhd Idaho Tchnologis Company' ABSTRACT Th Lockhd Idaho Tchnologis Company (LITCO) Economic and Systms Analysis program has dvlopd a lif cycl cost and risk stimation procss to valuat Environmntal Managmnt options for th Unitd Stats Dpartmnt of Enrgy. Th valuation procss is dmonstratd in this papr through th comparativ analysis of two altrnativ scnarios that hav bn idntifid for th managmnt of th alpha-contaminatd mixd low-lvl wast that is currntly stord at th Idaho National Enginring Laboratory (INEL). Th two scnarios that ar valuatd ar a Bas Cas and a Dlay Cas. Th two scnarios ar ralistic and basd on actual data, but ar not intndd to xactly match actual plans currntly bing dvlopd at th INEL. Th papr includs a gnral dscription of ach scnario, along with major assumptions that wr mad to support th analytical procss. Lif cycl cost stimats wr dvlopd for both scnarios with th us of th Systm Cost Modl. Th rsulting costs ar prsntd and compard. Lif cycl costs ar shown as a function of tim and also aggrgatd by prtratmnt, tratmnt, storag, and disposal activitis. Although thr ar som short-trm cost savings associatd with th Dlay Cas, th cumulativ lif cycl costs ar shown to vntually bcom much highr than th costs for th Bas Cas ovr th sam priod of tim, du mainly to th storag and rpackaging ncssary to accommodat th longr Dlay Cas schdul. Similarly, lif cycl risk stimats wr prpard using a rlativly nw risk analysis mthodology that was dvlopd for th INEL Environmntal Managmnt Intgration task and has bn adaptd to th Systm Cost Modl architctur for automatd, systmatic cost/risk applications. Rlativ risk summaris ar prsntd for both scnarios as a function of tim and also aggrgatd by prtratmnt, tratmnt, storag, and disposal activitis. Th rlativ risk associatd with th Dlay Cas is shown to b highr than that of th Bas Cas. Finally, risk and cost rsults ar combind to show how th collctiv information can b usd to hlp idntify opportunitis for risk or cost rduction, and highlight aras whr risk rduction can b achivd most conomically. Introduction A lif cycl cost and risk stimation procss has bn dvlopd to valuat various Environmntal Managmnt options for th Unitd Stats Dpartmnt of Enrgy (DOE). Th Economic and Systms Analysis program, basd at th Idaho National Enginring Laboratory, has bn sponsord by th Offic of Wast Managmnt, Offic of Planning and Analysis (EM-35) and th Offic of Scinc and Tchnology, Offic of Tchnology Systms (EM-53). Lockhd Idaho Tchnologis Company's (LITCO's) Economic and Systms Analysis (ESA) program has dvlopd a systms nginring procss for analysis of wast managmnt problms. Th procss is basd on th nginring analysis that LITCO has providd on th Wast Managmnt Programmatic Environmntal Impact Statmnt, Sit Tratmnt Plans (STPs) as rquird undr th Fdral Facility Complianc Act, and support for th 1 Work supportd by th U S. Dpartmnt of Enrgy, Assistant Scrtary for Environmntal Managmnt undr DOE Idaho Oprations Offic, Contract No. DE-AC07-1 DlSTRlBUTiON OF THIS DOCUMENT IS UNUMJTEtS hd"

2 Baslin Environmntal Managmnt Rport (BEMR). A risk mthodology was also dvlopd by th Idaho National Enginring Laboratory Environmntal Managmnt Intgration Program. Th combination of cost analysis and risk analysis capabilitis has allowd th ESA program to addrss EM akrnativs from nw prspctivs. LITCO s Economic and Systms Analysis program has dvlopd an xtnsiv knowldg in wast managmnt facility cost dvlopmnt, nginring modl dsign, and risk applications. This knowldg, which was initially dvlopd to support EM-30, has now bn additionally focusd on EM-50 initiativs to idntify cost-ffctiv and rducd-risk altrnativs. Th ESA studis will b usd by EM to gain a gratr undrstanding of th opportunitis for cost rductions and provid a quantitativ mans for comparison of DOE policy options. Th bnfits to EM-50 hav includd: Providing a baslin for comparison of Tchnology Dvlopmnt altrnativs, Providing a mthod to communicat rsults on nw tchnologis to EM-30, Providing a bridg btwn an Avrag Sit s approach and sit-spcific applicability, Hlping to idntify nds for tchnology dvlopmnt, Providing a basis for prioritizing opportunitis for risk or cost rduction. Th bnfits to EM-30 hav includd: Bttr focusd Tchnology Dvlopmnt supporting ky EM-30 policy options, Bttr undrstanding of th costs and bnfits of advancd tchnology options, Bttr intgration of a stratgic planning basis, Consistnt mthodology nabling comparativ analysis of wast managmnt altrnativs, Bttr undrstanding of cost implications for various complx-wid configuration options. Th nd for cost/risk intgration has bn idntifid by th DOE. Th DOE considrs risk and lif cycl costs in stablishing program prioritis. Th ESA program has dvlopd a tool calld th Systm Cost Modl (SCM) which has facilitatd th cost/risk analysis of complx EM altrnativs. Th SCM allows analysis of various tchnology procssing options for mixd low-lvl wast (MLLW), low-lvl wast (LLW), and transuranic wast (TRUW)--both mixd and non-mixd. Th us of th SCM has hlpd LITCO intgrat th rquirmnts of EM-30 and EM-50. Th two modls which hav bn dvlopd to support cost/risk analysis ar dscribd as follows: Systm Cost Modl (SCM) - Th SCM was initially dvlopd for EM-35 to support snsitivity analysis of wast managmnt costs for th BEMR. Th SCM producs complx-wid lif cycl costs for tratmnt, storag, disposal, and transportation of MLLW, LLW, and TRUW. Th SCM also includs a databas of sit-spcific wast managmnt information including: wast invntory volums and gnration rats, tratmnt procssing schms, xisting and plannd facilitis, sit-spcific cost factors and labor rats, and schduls. Systm Cost Modl - Risk (SCM-R) - Th SCM-R has bn dvlopd to a concptual lvl for EM-35 to support cost/risk valuations. Th SCM-R is an add-on to th bas SCM. Th fundamntal risk mthodology is basd on th work don by th Environmntal Managmnt Intgration Program (EMIP) at th INEL. Approximatly 1000 simplifid risk assssmnts wr producd for th EMIP. Th SCM-R will produc simplifid rlativ risk assssmnts to show baslin lif cycl risk, workr and public risk, wast disposal risk, and wast transportation risk. All catgoris of wast, from spnt ful to low-lvl wast, can b accommodatd, as can all typs of wast (radioactiv, hazardous, and mixd). Th mthod is basd on th fundamntal quations of risk (.g., as usd in CERCLA risk assssmnts). Th risk calculations ar basd on th product of probability and consquncs. Th quations ar brokn down into risk lmnts, g, invntory quantitis, toxicitis, confinmnt barrirs. Look-up tabls provid valus to b usd for ach risk lmnt.

3 CostlRisk Study This papr includs a spcific cost/risk study dmonstrating th us of th SCM and SCM-R tools. Th study provids a lif cycl cost/risk valuation of th trad-offs of using long-trm storag prior to tratmnt vrsus trating with xisting tchnologis and minimizing storag. Th study is basd on actual INEL wast stram data and can b considrd rprsntativ of th typ of analysis that could b prformd at any larg DOE sit. Howvr, sinc som of th assumptions usd ar hypothtical, this study is not intndd to accuratly rflct currnt INEL plans. Rathr, th study is mant to dmonstrat a uniqu cost/risk analysis capability using ralistic input paramtrs. Th purpos of th study was to compar th magnitud of th costs and risks for long-trm storag vrsus th currnt planning basis. Ths options show th costs and risks associatd with dlaying tratmnt until nw tchnologis ar availabl. Th study also shows how both costs and risks can b valuatd in on analysis. Th rmaindr of this papr includs a dscription of th altrnativs, assumptions, cost and risk rsults, and ky study conclusions. Altrnativ Dscriutions Two altrnativs wr dfind for this costfrisk study: 1. Bas Cas Scnario - Th Bas Cas Scnario is comprisd of th INEL BEMR tratmnt, storag, and disposal configuration and th 1995 Mixd Wast Invntory Rport (MWIR) wast stram data. Th Bas Cas scnario usd a tratmnt schdul basd on th STP. Th wast is rtrivd from arthn-covrd storag. Rtrival will b followd by rcipt and inspction of th wast at th Stord Wast Examination Pilot Plant (SWEPP), which includs an opn, dump, and sort modul to dtrmin which tratmnt th wast form will rciv. Also includd ar pr-tratmnt handling and storag. All ncssary pr-tratmnt facilitis ar assumd to b in xistnc at th INEL; thrfor, no construction costs ar includd until th yar 2025, whn xisting facilitis ar assumd to bcom obsolt and nw storag is constructd. This cas utilizs incinration followd by grouting for th particulats, sludgs, and som of th dbris. Howvr, most of th dbris will b tratd by first shrdding th wast, which is thn tratd by thrmal dsorption followd by grouting. Othr solids and particulats will b tratd by a polymr stabilization. Disposal is assumd to tak plac in an onsit nginrd disposal facility. 2. Dlav Cas Scnario - Th Bas Cas Scnario was rvisd to show th ffcts of long-trm pr-tratmnt wast storag. Tratmnt and disposal for this cas ar idntical to th Bas Cas with th only chang bing that th tratmnt and subsqunt disposal occur fifty yars latr. Th tratmnt and disposal facilitis rquird for th Dlay Cas ar considrd to b nonxistnt and will rquir construction. Howvr, no post-tratmnt storag is rquird for this cas sinc th tratd wast gos dirctly to disposal. In addition to pr-tratmnt storag, th wast will b ovrpackd as it is rcivd and inspctd basd on th assumption that currnt containrs ar not adquat to support anothr 50 yars of storag. SCM dos not hav an "ovrpack" modul, howvr, in ordr to provid costs to adquatly rflct th ovrpacking, th rciving and crtification modul costs wr artificially incrasd to account for th activity. Aftr th wast is rtrivd (complt in th yar 2015) and ovrpackd (complt in th yar 2039), it is stord until tratmnt is availabl in th yar

4 Gnral Assumptions: Th spcific wast managmnt systm dfind for this study was th INEL alpha MLLW. For th sak of simplicity in modling th INEL alpha MLLW, th initial risk analysis was limitd to fiv wast matrix catgoris2. Th total alpha MLLW invntory at th INEL is charactrizd by 12 wast matrix cods. Howvr, th fiv wast cods chosn for this dmonstration modl rprsnt 97.7% of th volum of wast to b tratd at th INEL. Th fiv wast cods chosn for this modl ar: S , S 3 120, S 5 110, S 5300, and S Th costs rflct DOE-built and opratd facilitis rquird for th alpha MLLW invntory. Sinc tratmnt facilitis for this wast do not currntly xist at th INEL, nw facilitis will b rquird. Th alpha MLLW will b tratd basd on th rquirmnts of th Rsourc Consrvation and Rcovry Act. Th tratmnt window for th invntory is assumd to b 19 yars in duration (sam for both cass). Ths cass assum that th alpha MLLW invntory is disposd of onsit in an abov-ground nginrd disposal facility. Schduling Assumvtions for th Bas Cas For th Bas cas, all construction of tratmnt facilitis starts in 1996, with tratmnt to commnc in Th SCM was allowd to build all tratmnt rquird. Schduling Assumptions for th Dlav Cas Rtrival of th wast will occur ovr 19 yars. Aftr th wast is rtrivd, it is rcivd, inspctd and assayd at th SWEPP facility ovr a 19-yar duration that nds in As th wast is assayd it is ovrpackd and thn placd in storag. Ovrpacking oprations will b complt in Existing storag capacity for th rtrivd and ovrpackd wast is not sufficint, so SCM will b allowd to construct storag facilitis as rquird. Wast storag continus until SCM will construct nw facilitis and dcontaminat and dcommission (D&D) th old facilitis as rquird during th xtndd storag priod. Construction (for thr yars) is followd by tratmnt, which commncs in 2047 and complts in Cost Rsults Lif cycl cost stimats wr calculatd for th two INEL alpha MLLW cass using th SCM and basd on th assumptions and cas dscriptions outlind abov. Th total lif cycl cost3for th Bas Cas was stimatd to b $1.25 billion (B), whil th total lif cycl cost for th Dlay Cas was stimatd to b $2.79 B. Figur 1 shows a comparison of th cumulativ costs for th two cass ovr tim. Th Bas Cas includs highr up-front costs bcaus all ndd tratmnt, storag, and disposal facilitis ar constructd immdiatly. Howvr, th cumulativ costs for th Bas Cas lvl out aftr th last facility is dcommissiond in th yar Bcaus of th much longr oprational tim fram, th cumulativ costs for th Dlay Cas surpass thos for th Bas Cas %at matrix catgoris, or cods, ar dfind in th DOE Wast Tratability Group Guidanc (DOWLLW-217, Rv. O), January 1995, which was issud to support dvlopmnt of th MWIR. All cost stimats ar in constant 1996 dollars. 4

5 in th yar 2032 and ar ultimatly ovr twic as high. 3,000 E!? 8 0.CI 4 2,500 2,000 1,500 CI E 3 0 1, Figur 1 : Cumulativ Costs Ovr Tim Yar Figur 2 shows a comparison of th costs for th two cass brokn down by wast managmnt function. Th four wast managmnt functions includd in th SCM stimats ar pr-tratmnt (including pr-tratmnt storag), tratmnt, post-tratmnt storag, and disposal. Most of th cost diffrnc btwn th two cass shows up in th pr-tratmnt catgory. This is du to th incrasd cost of pr-tratmnt storag rquird for th Dlay Cas. Th highr costs associatd with th Dlay Cas ar du to th construction and oprations of th ncssary storag facilitis. Th Dlay Cas costs also includ ovrpacking activitis and D&D of two xisting storag facilitis, nithr of which ar ncssary for th Bas Cas. 1,800 1, Pr-Tratmnt (including Storag) Tratmnt Post-Tratmnt Storag Figur 2: Costs By Wast Managmnt Function 5 Di sposai

6 * Risk Rsults Th rlativ risk was calculatd for both th Bas Cas and th Dlay Cas. Th annual rlativ risk for ach cas is prsntd in Figur 3. Ths risk profils should b considrd prliminary bcaus th basis for th annualizd risk calculations is still undr dvlopmnt. Th output dpicts th annual rlativ risk chang as th altrnativ is implmntd. Th output rprsnts th total risk of ail stps involvd in managing th wast, from initial storag through rtrival, handling, tratmnt, and disposal. Th bnficial ffcts of tratmnt on th annual risk ar vidnt by th dcrasing risk. Ths ffcts ar primarily attributd to placing th wast in a lss-mobil physical form R I I I Tratmnt I Tratmnt I _ Dlay Cas Disposal : Yar Figur 3: Rlativ Annual Risk Comparison Th rlativ risk was furthr dfind by summary-lvl tratmnt, storag, and disposal risk stats4. Th illustration in Figur 4 indicats that th procss stps contributing th most to th total tim-intgratd risk ar pr-tratmnt storag and long-trm disposal (>500 yars). 4For a givn matrial typ in a givn EM altrnativ, oprational activitis would procd from th currnt rsting plac through a sris of stps to a final disposition Each of ths stps is calld a stat. Thr ar two typs of stats. A rst stat is an inactiv managmnt stat. Storag and disposal ar rst stats. A transition stat is an activ managmnt stat, on in which som opration is bing prformd on th matrial typ. Exampls of transition stats ar rtrival, tratmnt, handling, and shipping. 6

7 Pr-trat mnt Tratmnt Storag Disposal Figur 4: Rlativ Risk By Wast Managmnt Function A rfinmnt of th output shown in th prvious figur is th brakdown of th rlativ risk by stat (quivalnt to modul). This output discriminats which spcific procsss ar contributing th most risk for th altrnativ. For th Bas Cas altrnativ, th rlativ risk is gratst in th front-nd modul for storag. In tratmnt, th majority of th risk is dominatd by th opn, dump, and sort and th incinration modul. Th disposal risk is drivn by th failur of th nginrd barrirs in th priod byond 2499 in th modul. C o s n i s k Analysis: Th individual cost and risk rsults provid insights to th highst cost and risk moduls. This information is valuabl to dtrmin gnral aras of mphasis. In addition to ths rsults, th costs and risks wr intgratd to provid nw insights into cost-ffctiv risk rduction opportunitis. Two tchniqus wr dvlopd to analyz th costlrisk rsults: Normalizd Product tchniqu - which can b usd to guid tchnology dvlopmnt prioritization and risk mitigation activitis, Marginal Altrnativ Comparison tchniqu - which discriminats risklcost prformanc btwn altrnativs to support furthr systm optimization. Ths innovativ tchniqus wr dvlopd for th purpos of lvraging th cost and risk data to gain insights into aras of gratst cost savings and risk rduction potntial. A dscription of th mthodology for th tchniqus is includd blow. Th costs and risks from th Bas Cas and th Dlay Cas scnarios wr also analyzd using ths tchniqus. 1) Normalizd Product (NP) tchniqu - Th NP tchniqu was usd to valuat th systm componnts to dtrmin th gratst opportunitis for combind risk and cost rduction. Th NP placs cost and risk on a normalizd scal so that a unit of risk is rlatd to a unit of cost'. Th highr valus on th NP scal ar indicativ of th moduldstats with th largst rlativ risks and costs as compard to th procsss with 'Th normalizd nsk and cost is basd on th contribution of th systm componnt (modul/stat) to th total systm risk and cost Th normalization hlps to put cost and nsk on a rlativ scal so that th significant risk drivrs can b compard against th rlativ costs of th modul/stat For thls analysis, risk and cost was normalizd to th Bas Cas systm totals 7

8 th smallst products of cost and risk. Th tchniqu hlps prioritiz whr funding should b dirctd to affct th largst potntial risk rduction and cost savings. This tchniqu was applid to th Bas Cas and Dlay Cas scnarios and th rsults ar summarizd in Figur al E '0 al N ' Y v) U 2 g P r-trat Trat mnt Storag Dis posal Wast Managmnt Activity Figur 5: Normalizd Rlativ Risk Comparison Rsults using th Normalizd Product tchniqu: Th rsults indicat that th gratst opportunitis for risk and cost rduction ar in th Dlay Cas. Th marginal changs for cost and risk wr highst for prtratmnt. Proportionatly, th marginal cost dcrmnt was almost fiv tims that of th risk. This would indicat that th Dlay Cas has significantly highr costs and som associatd incras in rlativ risk. Th rsults also show an opportunity for improvmnt in both cass for disposal. Risk mitigation could includ (but is not limitd to) rducing th numbr of yars of pr-tratmnt storag, producing a lss-mobil wast form, dstroying organics, rducing workr xposur in charactrization and packaging procsss, and improvd final wast form. 2) Marginal Altrnativ Comparison (MAC) tchniqu - This tchniqu is usd to discriminat diffrncs in risk and cost btwn altrnativs. Th MAC tchniqu hlps an analyst undrstand trad-offs and snsitivitis btwn risk and costs6from diffrnt wast managmnt options (tchnologis, schduling, tc.). This tchniqu can b usd to hlp answr qustions lik: Dos risk dcras proportionatly with incrasd costs? How much dos risk incras if costs ar cut? Th tchniqu provids a comparison of th normalizd cost and risk data from th altrnativs. Th fractional chang in normalizd risk (of on altrnativ compard to anothr) is compard to th fractional chang of normalizd cost (btwn altrnativs). Th rsulting marginal risk pr unit of cost is a masur of th potntial ffctivnss of an improvd altrnativ in rducing risks and costs. This tchniqu can b usd to analyz tchnology and oprational ffctivnss for pr-tratmnt oprations, tratmnt, storag 6For xampl, it may b possibl to achiv lowr risk by dvloping an improvd tratmnt tchnology. But th systm costs for th nw tchnology may b mor or lss than th currnt baslin tchnology. An optimizd cas would rduc systm risk and cost. 8

9 and disposal. A comparison of th Dlay Cas to th Bas Cas using th MAC tchniqu is prsntd in Figur EO OEO Y QI w c - ~1o.oEto.-2 F $1 5.OEO -2o.oEo -25.OEO Wast Managmnt Actions (consisting of modulslstats) Figur 6: Marginal Risk & Cost Product Comparison (Comparing Dlay Cas to Bas Cas) Rsults usinn th MAC tchniau: Th rsults indicat that long trm pr-tratmnt storag (including additional charactrization and ovrpacking) causs significant cost dgradation and additional risk. Post-tratmnt storag costs ar marginally improvd if tratmnt is dlayd du to improvd throughput btwn tratmnt and disposal oprations. Tratmnt and disposal costs and risks show no significant marginal diffrncs. Systm Lvl impacts can also b assssd using ths tchniqus. For xampl, if an improvd nw tchnology can b dvlopd in 10 yars (rsulting in incrasd pr-tratmnt storag) how much bttr would th tchnology nd to prform to brak vn with th additional costs and risk from th addd storag? Th systm assssmnt could also valuat th marginal diffrncs of using a nw tratmnt tchnology which producs an improvd final wast form for disposal. Conclusions Th cost and risks of two altrnativs wr analyzd using a systms-basd lif cycl cost and risk stimation procss. Tchniqus wr applid to intgrat th rsults from th individual cost and risk studis. Th tchniqus 9

10 hlpd to provid insights into aras to maximiz ffctivnss whil rducing risk. Th tchniqus can b usd to support many initiativs for EM: Dfin incntivs for invstmnt in R&D Idntify and prioritiz Tchnology Dvlopmnt projcts Maximiz oprational ffctivnss (sizing of facilitis, yars of opration) Optimiz schdul Optimiz facility siting and configuration Th ESA studis will b usd by EM to gain a gratr undrstanding of th opportunitis for cost rductions and to provid a quantitativ mans for comparison of DOE policy options. Rfrncs 1) Wast Managmnt Facilitis Cost Information for Mixd Low-Lvl Wast, INEL-95/00 14 Rvision 1, Jun ) Wast Managmnt Facilitis Cost Information: Systm Cost Modl Product Dscription, INEL- 94/01 15, (draft) Novmbr ) T. H. Smith, R. G. Patross, I.E. Stpan, A Simplifid Mthod for Quantitativ Assssmnt of th Rlativ Halth and Safty Risk of Environmntal Managmnt Activitis, Dcmbr 1995 draft. DISCLAIMER This rport was prpard as an account of work sponsord by an agncy of th Unitd Stats Govrnmnt. Nithr th Unitd Stats Govrnmnt nor any agncy throf, nor any of thir mploys, maks any warranty, xprss or implid, or assums any lgal liability or rspnsibility for th accuracy, compltnss, or usfulnss of any information, apparatus, product, or procss disclosd, or rprsnts that its us would not infring privatly ownd rights. Rfrnc hrin to any spcific commrcial product, procss, or srvic by trad nam, tradmark, manufacturr, or othrwis dos not ncssarily constitut or imply its ndorsmnt, rcommndation, or favoring by th Unitd Stats Govrnmnt or any agncy throf. Th viws and opinions of authors xprssd hrin do not ncssarily stat or rflct thos of th Unitd Stats Govrnmnt or any agncy throf. 10