E3 Model Scenarios. Jeff Sweeney (EPA) Mark Dubin (UMD) Chesapeake Bay Program Office. Agriculture Workgroup Meeting August 24, 2017

Transcription

1 E3 Mdel Scenaris Jeff Sweeney (EPA) Mark Dubin (UMD) Chesapeake Bay Prgram Office Agriculture Wrkgrup Meeting August 24, 2017

2 Phase 6 E3 Mdel Scenari Status and Decisin Request 11:00 11:30; Jeff Sweeney, EPA-CBPO, and Mark Dubin, UM, will review refinements t the revised DRAFT Phase 6 agricultural E3 and N-Actin Scenari based upn the August 17th meeting. Cmments t the cver crps and manure incrpratin/injectin BMPs in the E3 scenari were due t Sweeney and Dubin, cc Lretta Cllins by nn Tuesday August 22nd. Per request f the July 24th WQGIT, the Wrkgrup has been asked t prvide a final Phase 6 agricultural E3 and N-Actin Scenari fr presentatin t the WQGIT n August 28th. The WQGIT request included a Wrkgrup review f the implementatin levels fr BMPs and pssible gegraphic limitatins f Phase 6 E3/N-Actin BMPs. Refinements fr the fllwing will be specifically discussed: manure incrpratin, manure injectin, and cver crps. Decisin: The AgWG will be asked t apprve a FINAL versin f the Phase 6 agricultural N-Actin and E3 scenaris t be presented at the WQGIT August 28th Cnference Call fr apprval. 2

3 Tillage Management 1. High-Residue/Minimal Sil Disturbance 100% f rw crps (excluding crn silage and sybeans), and lw input specialty crps 2. Cnservatin-Tillage 100% f select rw crps including crn silage and sybeans, and high input specialty crps 3. Lw-Residue Tillage Phase 6 E3 Mdel Scenari Tillage Practices Versus Incrpratin 100% f select high input specialty crps including ptates, peanuts, tbacc 3

4 Manure Incrpratin and Injectin 1. Incrpratin, Lw-Disturbance All dry manure frm pultry, beef, hrses, sheep, and gats n crps that receive manure, excluding crps w/ manure injectin Split between acres with injectin versus incrpratin is the prprtin f liquid-t-dry manure nutrients applied t crps, e.g., dairy+swine versus pultry+beef+hrses+etc. 2. Injectin Phase 6 E3 Mdel Scenari Tillage Practices Versus Incrpratin All liquid manure frm dairy & swine n crps that receive manure, excluding crps w/ manure incrpratin Split between acres with injectin versus incrpratin is the prprtin f liquid-t-dry manure nutrients applied t crps, e.g., dairy+swine versus pultry+beef+hrses+etc. 4

5 Manure Incrpratin and Injectin 1. Incrpratin, Lw-Disturbance This practice is cmbined with lw-residue tillage and cnservatin-tillage, but may nt be cmbined with high residue tillage management due t residue retentin that likely des nt equal r surpass 60 percent 2. Injectin Phase 6 E3 Mdel Scenari Tillage Practices Versus Incrpratin Cmbined with high-residue tillage management 5

6 Fr the urban sectr, the drainage area f ALL husehlds, businesses, rads, etc. is: Phase 6 E3 Mdel Scenari Sectr Equity retrfitted t meet a 1.5 perfrmance standard, r the sewer system f hardened cities is separated s there are n verflws $ = 100 s millin, trillins? E3 des nt cnsider feasibility = implementatin at 100% unless physically/technically impssible 6

7 1. E3 traditinal Cver Crps at 81% f rw crps Nt assciated with small-grain prductin and high input specialty; early, drilled, rye 2. E3 Cmmdity Cver Crps at 19% f rw crps Phase 6 E3 Mdel Scenari Cver Crps Current small-grain prductin; early, drilled, wheat Cver Crp cmpsite = 100% f rw crps and high input specialty crps 7

8 Phase 6 E3 Mdel Scenari Cver Crps Prpsed 1. E3 traditinal Cver Crps at 61% f rw crps 2. E3 Cmmdity Cver Crps at 19% f rw crps 3. + Cver Crp = 20% r rw crps early aerialseeded rye 4. Exceptin is NY and upper PA at 81% early aerialseeded traditinal and 19% Cmmdity Cmpsite = 100% f rw crps and high input specialty crps 8

9 Phase 6 E3 Mdel Scenari Tutrials/Discussins n E3 and Planning Targets Water Quality GIT Dec 15, 2015 June 27, 2016 Oct 24, 2016 Nv 14, 2016 Jan 9, 2017 Jan 23, 2017 June 26, 2017 July 24, 2017 Aug 14, 2017 Agriculture WG Sep 15, 2016 Oct 5, 2016 April 20, 2017 June 29, 2017 July 20, 2017 Urban Strmwater WG May 17, 2016 June 21, 2016 July 26, 2016 Sept 20, 2016 Oct 6, 2016 Nv 15, 2016 June 27, 2017 Waste Water Technical WG Aug 2, 2016 Sep 13, 2016 Oct 4, 2016 Frestry WG Nv 2, 2016 May 3, 2017 August 17,

10 NActin minus E3 percent reductin Percent reductin frm 2010 nbmps t E3 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Phase 5 Planning Target Methdlgy Hckey Stick 4.5 mg/l Thse that pllute mre shuld d mre. Actins already taken cunt tward the gals Relative Effectiveness Relative = Effectiveness gegraphic islatin runs 10