Assessing the Risk of Off-airport Bird Hazards. Phil Shaw Managing Director & Will Jamieson

Transcription

1 Assessing the Risk of Off-airport Bird Hazards Phil Shaw Managing Director & Will Jamieson

2 Risk Score Card 2009/10 ITEM 2007/ / /10 target 2009/10 actuals Next Years Target Total Strikes Damaging strikes

3 Damaging Strike Benchmark? 1 per 100,000 aircraft movements (Dolbeer 2008)

4 Risk Score Card 2009/10 ITEM 2007/ / /10 target 2009/10 actuals Next Years Target Total Strikes Damaging strikes Strikes affecting planned flight Strikes Rate per 10,000 Movements (RSR) Strikes per 10,000 RPTEM Corrected (CSR)

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7 Risk Score Card 2009/10 ITEM 2007/ / /10 target 2009/10 actuals Next Years Target Total Strikes Damaging strikes Strikes affecting planned flight Strikes Rate per 10,000 Movements (RSR) Strikes per 10,000 RPTEM Corrected (CSR) Ranking at Australian Airports Total Mass Struck (g) Mass Struck per RPTEM (g)

8 Risk Score Card 2009/10 ITEM 2007/ / /10 target 2009/10 actuals Next Years Target Total Strikes Damaging strikes Strikes affecting planned flight Strikes Rate per 10,000 Movements (RSR) Strikes per 10,000 RPTEM Corrected (CSR) Ranking at Australian Airports Total Mass Struck (g) Mass Struck per RPTEM (g) Infringement Rate - Risk species in CA/hour

9 Infringement Rates 200ftAGL Airport boundary 9

10 Risk Score Card 2009/10 ITEM 2007/ / /10 target 2009/10 actuals Next Years Target Total Strikes Damaging strikes Strikes affecting planned flight Strikes Rate per 10,000 Movements (RSR) Strikes per 10,000 RPTEM Corrected (CSR) Ranking at Australian Airports Total Mass Struck (g) Mass Struck per RPTEM (g) Infringement Rate - Risk species in CA/hour Very high risk species High risk species Moderate risk species Airport Survey Risk Index

11 Risk by species from the survey record Risk Characteristic Population Ability to avoid aircraft Location on airport Time spent in air Mass Flock Size Probability of a strike Consequence of a strike

12 Risk by species from the survey record

13 Probability of damage Risk by species from the strike record Probability of strikes (5 year strike average for each species) Very Low Low Moderate High Very High Very Low Low Moderate High Very High Low Risk: no further action beyond current management is required Medium Risk: review current management practices & options for additional action required High Risk: immediate action required to reduce the current risk

14 Probability of damage < 140g Very Low Risk by species from the strike record (% Damage = x mass in grams) Probability of strikes (5 year strike average for each species) Very Low Low Moderate High Very High g Low g Moderate g High > 1408g Very High Low Risk: no further action beyond current management is required Medium Risk: review current management practices & options for additional action required High Risk: immediate action required to reduce the current risk

15 Probability of damage Very Low Low Risk by species from the strike record Probability of strikes (5 year strike average for each species) Very Low Low Moderate High Very High House Sparrow Unknown Small Bird Nankeen Kestrel Richard Pipit Tree Martin Welcome Swallow Australian Hobby Australian Magpie Unknown Bird Silver Gull Unknown Medium Bird Masked Lapwing Moderate High Very High Nankeen Night Heron Australian White Ibis White-faced Heron Cattle Egret Whistling Kite Black Duck Wood Duck Unknown Flying-fox Low Risk: no further action beyond current management is required Medium Risk: review current management practices & options for additional action required High Risk: immediate action required to reduce the current risk

16 Combined risk species COMBINED Risk Category Species TREND Very High Australian White Ibis Increase High Flying-fox High Pacific Black Duck High Rainbow Lorikeet Increase High White-bellied Sea-Eagle Increase High Cattle Egret Increase High Wood Duck Increase Moderate White-faced Heron Moderate Torresian Crow Moderate Fairy Martin New addition (SRI) Moderate Common Myna New addition (SRI) Moderate Australian Magpie Moderate Whistling Kite Decrease Moderate Straw-necked Ibis Moderate Pied Cormorant New addition (SRI) Moderate Eastern Osprey New addition (SRI Moderate Brolga New addition (SRI) Moderate Little Pied Cormorant New addition (SRI) Moderate Nankeen Night Heron New addition (strike) 16

17 Risk Score Card 2009/10 ITEM 2007/ / /10 target 2009/10 actuals Next Years Target Total Strikes Damaging strikes Strikes affecting planned flight Strikes Rate per 10,000 Movements (RSR) Strikes per 10,000 RPTEM Corrected (CSR) Ranking at Australian Airports Total Mass Struck (g) Mass Struck per RPTEM (g) Infringement Rate - Risk species in CA/hour Very high risk species High risk species Moderate risk species Airport Survey Risk Index

18 Off-airport bird/bat hazards Transiting birds/bats to and from roosting, nesting or foraging sites Build up of populations off airport Airport Approaches En-route

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21 Consequence Off-airport bird/bat hazards Mass > 1408g 5 Very High g 4 High g 3 Moderate g 2 Low < 140g 1 Very Low Add 1 to score if in multiple strikes

22 Likelihood Off-airport bird/bat hazards Total Strikes Past 5 Years > 50 5 Very High High Moderate Low 1 1 Very Low 0 0 Very very low

23 Likelihood Off-airport bird/bat hazards Numbers per Ha >50 5 Very High High Moderate Low <5 1 Very Low

24 Likelihood Off-airport bird/bat hazards Distance from airport <0.8km 5 Very High km 4 High 1.6-8km 3 Moderate 8-13km 2 Low >13km 1 Very Low

25 Likelihood Off-airport bird/bat hazards Likely frequency of crossing airspace Multiple times per day 5 Very High Once per day 4 High Weekly 3 Moderate Monthly 2 Low Almost never 1 Very Low

26 Likely frequency of crossing airspace Location of strikes Altitude of bird mvts Proximity to aircraft flight paths Complimentary habitats Number Location Habitat quality

27 Off-airport monitoring lake tidal estuary agriculture aquacultur agriculture landfill retention pond tidal

28 Site Risk = Consequence x Likelihood = Mass x (Strikes + Number + Distance + Cross Airspace)

29 Species 1 Species 2 Species 3 Species 4 Species 5 Species 6 Species 7 Species 8 Species Risk Index Compare risk by species

30 Off Airport Risk total Risk Index Compare risk by sites Airport Site 1 A Airport Site 2 B Airport Site 3 C

31 Airport Risk Index Off Airport Risk Index Compare risk over months Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

32 Airport Risk Index Off Airport Risk Index Compare risk over seasons Winter Spring Summer Autumn

33 Airport Risk Index Off Airport Risk Index Compare risks over years

34 Managing off-airport risk Setting thresholds for action Low risk sites Annual monitoring Moderate risk: Seasonal monitoring High risk sites monitored: Weekly/Monthly monitoring Action Plan required Very High Risk: Daily Monitoring Immediate Management required

35 Points for consideration Stakeholder engagement Existing sites Can be used modified for new airports Airport expansions New land use proposals

36 QUESTIONS?