GOOD THINGS DO NOT HAPPEN TO ME BUT NEITHER DO THE BAD THINGS: COMPARATIVE OPTIMISM AND PESSIMISM IN A SLOVAK SAMPLE

Transcription

1 286 STUDIA PSYCHOLOGICA, 58, 2016, 4 GOOD THINGS DO NOT HAPPEN TO ME BUT NEITHER DO THE BAD THINGS: COMPARATIVE OPTIMISM AND PESSIMISM IN A SLOVAK SAMPLE Vladimía ČAVOJOVÁ Institute of Exeimental Psychology Cente of Social and Psychological Sciences, Slovak Academy of Sciences Dúbavská cesta 9, Batislava, Slovak Reublic vladimia.cavojova@savba.sk Abstact: This study examined whethe aticiants will show otimism about common events, yet show essimism about ae events (egadless of thei desiability), and whethe thee is a elationshi between otimism and oveconfidence, concetualized (Sheed et al., 2013) as unealistic absolute otimism. 136 edagogy students comleted a questionnaie with 28 events (ositive and negative, ae and common) togethe with two cognitive tasks and an estimation of thei efomance. The esults suot neithe the unealistic hyothesis no the egocentism hyothesis fully the aticiants aeaed to be somewhat essimistic in estimating the likelihood of mainly ositive events haening to them; they wee quite otimistic in execting to avoid negative events. Only a small ovela between the unealistic comaative otimism and unealistic absolute otimism (oveconfidence) was found. These esults suot the necessity to distinguish between distinct tyes of otimism bias and highlight methodological oblems connected mainly with estimates of unealistic comaative otimism. Key wods: unealistic comaative otimism, unealistic absolute otimism, oveconfidence, oveestimation, intelligence Acknowledgment This wok was suoted by the Slovak Reseach and Develoment Agency unde the contact No. APVV I wish to thank my colleagues fo thei suot and comments made on ealie vesions of the manuscit. My secial thanks go to Mioslav Siota fo his helful suggestions and to Cationa Menzies fo he hel with the language and he insiing questions and comments egading the manuscit. I also want to thank Maek Jukovič fo hel with statistical analyses. The notion that eole ae fequently oveotimistic about the futue is well known in the judgment and decision-making liteatue (Amo & Taylo, 2002; Hadman, 2009; Chambes & Windschitl, 2004; Kuge & Buus, 2004; Lench & Ditto, 2008; Menon, Kyung, & Agawal, 2009; Shaot, 2011; Sweldens, Puntoni, Paolacci, & Visses, 2014; Weinstein, 1980; White, Cunningham, & Titchene, 2011). Howeve, the concet of unealistic otimism has been questioned ecently, both on the basis of teminological confusions and methodological oblems (e.g., Hais & Hahn, 2011). Sheed, Klein, Wates, and Weinstein (2013) addess some of the aised citicisms in thei eview and oose to distinguish between fou kinds of unealistic otimism. In this ae I build on the distinction made by Sheed et al. DOI: /s

2 STUDIA PSYCHOLOGICA, 58, 2016, (2013) and examine the ovela between unealistic comaative otimism and oveconfidence, which can be concetualized as unealistic absolute otimism at the individual level accoding to Sheed et al. (2013). The aim of this ae, theefoe, is to contibute to the debate by emiically examining comaative otimism and oveconfidence and the mutual ovela between these concets. To achieve this aim I elicated the study of Kuge and Buus (2004) on a samle of Slovak students. Befoe oceeding to the descition of the eseach, I will fist claify the teminology used in this ae and ossible connections between the concets discussed. What is Meant by Otimism? One of the fist eseaches who exeimentally demonstated otimistic bias was Weinstein (1980). He showed that majoity of aticiants believed that negative events ae less likely while ositive events as moe likely to haen to them. Late, Scheie and Cave (1985) obseved individual diffeences in the genealized exectancies and they designed the Life Oientation Test (LOT) to measue this kind of disositional otimism, which was defined as global exectancy of moe ositive than negative events in one s life. Whethe situational o disositional, scientific definitions of otimism and essimism tend to focus on exectancies fo the futue (Cave, Scheie, & Segestom, 2010). Accoding to Cave, Scheie, and Segestom (2010) these definitions ae linked to exectancy-value models of motivation, which assume that behavio eflects the usuit of goals. Pusuit of goals is affected by value of the goal and the exectancy (confidence that the goal can be attained). Thus, otimism and essimism ae boad, genealized vesions of confidence and doubt; they ae confidence and doubt etaining to life, athe than to just secific context (Scheie & Cave, 1992). Thus otimists should tend to be confident and esistent in the face of divese life challenges Pessimists should be doubtful and hesitant in the same situations (Cave et al., 2010,. 880). Pevalence of findings that eole ae geneally ovely otimistic about thei futue osects and that they judge themselves as bette on many desiable taits lead Taylo and Bown (1994, 1988) to fomulate a ositive illusions hyothesis that unealistic otimism, ovely ositive self-evaluation and exaggeated ecetions of contol and mastey ae chaacteistic of nomal mental thought and even moe, that they actually omote mental health and ability to engage in oductive wok and social elationshis. Desite the aeal of the ositive illusion hyothesis, the notion that biased selfimage and ungounded beliefs can be beneficial to mental health was heavily citicized by many eseaches (Colvin & Block, 1994; Colvin, Funde, & Block, 1995) 1. 1 Reconciliations of the oosing findings by Taylo and Bown and thei citiques (Asendof & Ostendof, 1998) concen methodological issues elated to the self-enhancement at of ositive illusions and is beyond the scoe of this aticle. Howeve, desite some evidence that ositive illusions can have some benefits fo some eole, Coeia (n.d.) agues that such benefits tend to be shot-lived and that misbeliefs ae geneally not adative fom a long-tem esective. Positive illusions may give some ewading vision of self, but in the long-time esective they undemine the ocess of delibeation and ae ultimately detimental to the maximization of eole s efeences.

3 288 STUDIA PSYCHOLOGICA, 58, 2016, 4 Howeve, the debate between eseaches advocating a ositive ole of biases and those who favo a esective moe in line with eality is futhe comlicated by concetual, methodological and teminological issues. Fo examle, eole dislay unealistic otimism when judging thei vulneability to negative events o the osect of a ositive event occuing (Eise, Pahl, & Pins, 2001), but they often also show otimism when comaing themselves with othe eole (Eise et al., 2001; Sweldens et al., 2014). This tendency is often consideed as an exession of the above-aveage-effect o self-seving bias. Howeve, eole sometimes dislay essimism as well, when comaing thei osects with othe eole (Kuge & Buus, 2004), esecially when fequency of the event is taken into account. Vaious tems have been used intechangeably to descibe this kind of otimistic bias, such as unealistic otimism, lanning fallacy, illusion of contol, bette-than-aveageeffect and oveconfidence, sometimes having synonymous and sometimes elated meaning (Hais & Hahn, 2011). Sheed, Caoll, Gace, and Tey (2002) ague that eole evaluate thei futue success usually in comaison with othe eole. Comaative otimism is then defined as a belief that one is less likely to exeience a negative event and moe likely to exeience a ositive event than othe eole ae, wheeas comaative essimism is a belief that one is less likely to exeience a ositive event and moe likely to exeience negative event than othe eole ae. In ecent eview Sheed et al. (2013) identified fou tyes of otimism: unealistic absolute otimism at the individual and gou level and unealistic comaative otimism at the individual and gou level. Unealistic absolute otimism efes to the idea that the exectation is unealistic and otimistic elative to an objective standad, wheeas unealistic comaative otimism efes to the idea that exectation is unealistic and otimistic elative to the estimates a eson makes fo othe eole. Moeove, they ague that many of citicisms towads the concet of otimism bias suggesting that the otimism bias is a mee statistical atefact, elates only to one of the tyes: the unealistic comaative otimism at gou level. The aoach of Sheed et al. (2013) seems to be vey useful fo systemizing eseach findings elated to otimism and in ecognizing new aeas of eseach, such as concetual distinctions among tyes of unealistic otimism. They suggest that unealistic absolute otimism and unealistic comaative otimism may eflect diffeent undelying constucts. Howeve, the ways they descibe unealistic absolute otimism at individual level seem to ovela to a geat extent with anothe elated constuct oveconfidence. Although Sheed s et al. (2013) definition etains to assessing isks elated to some extenal objective standad, the examles they give and eseach they eview is at least in some way elated to estimating one s own efomance (such as gades). Comaative Otimism and Oveconfidence Some eseaches (Mooe & Healy, 2008; Olsson, 2014) obseved a lack of concetual claity in the oveconfidence liteatue as well. As shown in the eview about otimism, sometimes otimism is confused with oveconfidence, o confidence is seen as a at of otimistic disosition (Cave et al., 2010).

4 STUDIA PSYCHOLOGICA, 58, 2016, Oveconfidence, too, has been studied inconsistently and it is ossible to descibe thee kinds of oveconfidence (Mooe & Healy, 2008): 1) Oveestimation efes to edicting that one s efomance in a given task will be bette than it actually is; 2) ovelacement efes to evaluating one s efomance moe ositively elative to othes; 3) oveecision efes to excessive cetainty in one s beliefs and estimates. Ovelacement is most diectly elated to comaisons with othe eole, thus, it is obably most associated with comaative otimism. And while Sheed et al. (2013) define unealistic otimism in tems of isk estimates, it was clea fom thei esentation that they conside some instances of oveestimation as manifestation of unealistic absolute otimism at individual level. Howeve, only a few studies have examined the elationshis between these simila concets and the way they ae measued (Laick, Buson, & Soll, 2007; Mooe & Healy, 2008; Radcliffe & Klein, 2002). Sheed et al. (2013) call fo moe eseach that would hel claify the question whethe the fou tyes of unealistic otimism ae eally concetually diffeent o they meely diffe because of diffeent measuements, but othewise eesent a single undelying constuct. They suggest that at least unealistic absolute otimism and unealistic comaative otimism eflect a diffeent undelying constuct. Knowing whethe thee ae concetual diffeences between the tyes of otimism is imotant, because diffeent tyes of otimism can have diffeent causes and diffeent consequences, and can be elicited by diffeent situational deteminants. Fo examle, some studies have shown that unealistic otimism is not associated with low-isk ecetion (Wiebe & Black, 1997, in Radcliffe & Klein, 2002), suggesting that unealistic otimists use defensive stategies to avoid udating isk infomation. Radcliffe and Klein (2002) found that disositional otimism was coelated with unealistic comaative otimism, but not with unealistic absolute otimism. In thei study, disositional otimists and eole giving lowe comaative isk ecetions (iesective of thei accuacy) had lowe isk of having a heat attack. In othe wods, Radcliffe and Klein (2002) showed that believing one s isk to be below aveage is not maladative; on the contay, it seems to be a faily accuate belief that is associated with a vaiety of favoable outcomes (. 844). This was not the case fo unealistic otimism these individuals wee at highe isk, yet believed they wee at lowe isk. Radcliffe and Klein s (2002) study highlighted the imotance of distinguishing between adative (comaative) and maladative (absolute) otimism and thei diffeentiated coelation with elated issues, such as isk ecetion. Unlike othe studies, they used moe objective estimates fo unealistic otimism at the individual level (Health Risk Aaisal), but they focused only on a negative life event (isk of heat attack). Similaly, Mooe and Healy (2008) call fo the need to distinguish thee distinct ways of concetualizing and measuing oveconfidence. Although both these studies attemted to look fo similaities and diffeences between diffeently concetualized otimism and oveconfidence, they did not look at the mutual elationshis. Only, Laick et al. (2007) examined the elationshi between social comaison bias (bette-than-aveage effect) and oveconfidence (ove-ecision), and they found that highe

5 290 STUDIA PSYCHOLOGICA, 58, 2016, 4 ecetions of one s ability elative to othes edicted geate degees of oveconfidence. Cultual Influences on Otimism One of the citiques egading evalence and nomalcy of otimism bias and oveconfidence is based on the fact that majoity of studies ae based on Westen, mainly U.S. oulations, which undemine the genealizability of the findings (Henich, Heine, & Noenzayan, 2010). Some authos (Noem & Chang, 2002) ague that due to the dominancy of Ameican cultue, eole (and scientists as well) may undeestimate the costs of otimism. Thee has been some eseach showing geate otimism and oveconfidence in Westen, moe individualistic cultues (Heine & Lehman, 1995; Heine, 1993; Chang, 1996), but in most cases Noth Ameican cultues (Canada, USA) wee comaed with Asian cultues. Heine and Lehman (1995), using comaative measue simila to those of Weinstein, found that Canadians showed significantly moe otimism than Jaanese and it was moe stongly elated to eceived theat. Chang (1996) comaed Asian Ameicans and Caucasian Ameicans in disositional otimism and again found significantly geate otimism in Caucasian Ameicans. Howeve, meta-analysis of disositional otimism (Fische & Chalmes, 2008) using data fom 22 nations found that oveall effects of cultue ae geneally small. Although, geate individualism was associated with geate otimism; claims of fundamental cultual diffeences wee not suoted. It should be noted, howeve, that Hofstede s estimations of cultual dimensions wee ecently questioned (Bašnáková, Bezina, & Masayk, 2016). Fo the uose of the cuent ae, the study by Rose, Endo, Windschitl, and Suls (2008) is of secial inteest, because it also examines ossible methodological effects in the study of cultual diffeences. They comaed diect (a single comaison judgment between self and ees) and indiect method (seaate self and ee judgments). They found that a diect method oduced simila attens acoss cultues i.e., unealistic otimism about exeiencing infequent/ negative events but essimism about exeiencing fequent/negative events. On the othe hand, an indiect method oduced diffeent attens acoss cultues i.e., U.S. samle was moe unealistically otimistic than the Jaanese samle. Howeve, it is also imotant to study the diffeences within the so-called Westen cultues, and the counties of Easten Euoe ae of secial inteest, as they ae usually consideed to be moe collectivistic than taditional Westen democacies (Bašnáková et al., 2016; Kolman, Noodehaven, Hofstede, & Dienes, 2003). Aim of the Study It seems intuitively clea that misjudging one s abilities (oveconfidence) and one s obability of exeiencing ositive events in the nea futue (otimism bias) could be manifestations of the self-seving bias, but a comaison of these henomena is still lagely missing fom the liteatue. The ationale behind this study was to examine how these henomena ae connected whethe eole misjudge the obability of exeiencing vaious events because estimating obabilities is something outside thei aea of exetise (and they will be moe ecise in

6 STUDIA PSYCHOLOGICA, 58, 2016, estimating thei own abilities, which they ae moe familia with) o they misjudge the obabilities and thei abilities due to the same undelying facto, such as self-seving bias. In othe wods, ae the vaious exessions (tyes) of otimism (as defined also by Sheed et al., 2013) manifestations of one undelying constuct o ae they distinct concets? Theefoe, the following hyotheses and eseach questions wee tested. Fistly, I focused on veifying the esults of Kuge and Buus (2004) on non-westen samle (Henich et al., 2010): 1) Paticiants will show otimism fo common events (egadless of thei desiability), but will show essimism fo ate events (egadless of thei desiability). Then, the elationshi between otimism and oveconfidence will be tested: 2) The aticiants who will show highe otimism will also show highe oveconfidence. Afte testing these two main hyotheses, seconday analyses will focus on the comaison, 3) whethe diect and indiect measue of otimism will yield diffeent esults due to lowe egocentism using indiect measue (Rose et al., 2008). Paticiants Method Oveall, 136 edagogy students of vaious majos fom Constantine the Philosohe Univesity in Slovakia aticiated in the study: 109 of them aticiated in the fist session; 121 of them aticiated in the second session, giving us a comlete dataset fom 92 students who aticiated in both sessions. The mean age of ou samle was (SD = 4.45) yeas and was simila to the study by Kuge and Buus (2004) in tems of age and obable motivation (they wee given exta couse cedits), but because the samle was dawn fom the ool of edagogy students, it consisted edominately of women (83.1 %). Mateials Unealistic Comaative Otimism: Exeiencing Rae vs. Common Events Questionnaie Paticiants (N = 109) comleted a questionnaie descibing 28 events (we used almost the same 2 mateial as that in Kuge & Buus, 2004, Study 1). The woding of the items used can be seen in Table 3 in the Results section. The ationale fo using Kuge and Buus s (2004) mateial was to elicate the main effect of the fequency of the event, athe than its desiability. The questionnaie balances the fequency (common vs. ae) and desiability (ositive vs. negative) of the event, and at the same time it uses events 2 The exact same events wee used, with only fou excetions. 1) I changed the stating salay to 800 in the common ositive gou and 8000 in the ae ositive gou, as the oiginal amounts ($2500 and $25000, esectively) would have been too unealistic in the Slovak setting. 2) Also, ounds wee changed to kilos and to highlight the diffeence between the two conditions (common negative vs. ae negative) the time eiod in common negative was changed fom 10 to 5 yeas. 3) We omitted one item and used anothe fom Exeiment 2 instead, as falling behind with dental hygiene would obably have no effect on ou aticiants. Instead, we used items elated to being stessed befoe an exam and being stessed befoe the esidential elections. 4) Lastly, we slightly adated the item egading gaduating in the ue half of one s class into gaduating with honos, which is moe natual in a Slovak setting.

7 292 STUDIA PSYCHOLOGICA, 58, 2016, 4 that ae elatively neutal in tems of social desiability o health-elated issues. Fo each event, aticiants comaed thei likelihood of exeiencing the event in comaison with the aveage eson fom thei couse on a scale of 1 (much less likely to haen to me) to 7 (much moe likely to haen to me). Next, aticiants estimated the likelihood of the event haening to them and (seaately) of it haening to the aveage eson in thei class on a scale fom 1 (vey unlikely) to 7 (vey likely). Of the 28 events, half wee ositive and half wee negative, while half wee common and half wee ae (fo a total of 7 events e categoy). Following Kuge and Buus (2004) I calculated mean likelihood estimates by subtacting 4 (the midoint of the scale coesonding to the aveage) fom each estimate and this was ou main outcome vaiable (diect measue of comaative otimism). I also calculated the indiect measue of comaative otimism by subtacting ee-estimates fom self-estimates. Positive values in all cases indicate that a eson has a geate-than-aveage eceived likelihood of exeiencing the event, while negative values indicated that a eson has a less-than-aveage likelihood of exeiencing the event. Oveconfidence: Estimating One s Achievement in Cognitively Challenging Tasks To estimate oveconfidence, I used the Vienna Matix Test (VMT, standadized fo the Slovak oulation by Klose, Čenochová, & Kál, 2002) fo measuing intelligence and the Cognitive Reflection Test (Fedeick, 2005), which ae descibed late in the section in moe detail. The choice of cognitive tasks was diven mainly by my exectation that one s own cognitive abilities ae esonally imotant, because they cay imlicit value and can elate to eson s self-esteem and, theefoe, eole ae motivated to monito thei cognitive abilities. Moeove, in school setting students eceive fequent feedback about thei cognitive abilities in foms of gades. In line with ecommendations in oveconfidence liteatue, aticiants wee given some infomation about tests befoehand, e.g., scoes in VMT that eesent below-aveage, aveage, and above-aveage intelligence and natue of logical tasks (CRT). Vienna Matix Test (VMT). The VMT is based on Raven s classic test of ogessive matices two items ae taken fom the Standad Pogessive Matices and one fom the Advanced Pogessive Matices constucted by Raven. It consists of 24 items of inceasing difficulty and it is time-limited (25 minutes). Each task contains a 3x3 ictue matix whee the ictue is missing in the thid ow. The aticiant s task is to coectly fill in one of the eight ossibilities. The VMT shows high coelations with the Intelligence Stuctue Test and Klose et al. (2002) conclude that it eliably eflects geneal cognitive factos. The test is suosed to be cultually fai as it is based on figual content. The means scoe fo ou samle (N = 121) was (SD = 16.3); on aveage the aticiants solved tasks out of 24. Pio to filling in the test, aticiants wee asked to estimate thei IQ based on the ovided anges and infomation about the test. Oveconfidence was calculated by subtacting the actual IQ fom the exected IQ, thus highe scoe eflects highe oveconfidence and negative scoe eflects undeconfidence (actual scoe was highe than exected).

8 STUDIA PSYCHOLOGICA, 58, 2016, Cognitive Reflection Test exanded vesion (Tolak, West, & Stanovich, 2014). The CRT is a simle test measuing a eson s tendency to ocess things ooly (o cognitive imulsiveness/laziness in defaulting to the autonomous mind) against a eson s ability to ostone judgment (cognitive eflection). It is a simle test of one tye of cognitive ability that is so edictive of some efeences that it effectively functions as an exession of cognitive ability (Fedeick, 2005). Howeve, because it is so widely used as an examle in textbooks, the questions have become widely known, so ecently Tolak et al. (2013) exanded the thee-task CRT (CRT3) into a seven-task CRT (CRT7). This is the test I used in this study. The scoing emained the same: coect esonses wee ascibed 1 oint esulting in an aveage M = 0.81 fo CRT3 and M = 2.01 fo CRT7 in the cuent study. Moeove, aticiants made thee kinds of estimations: one befoe the task (How many of the tasks will you solve coectly?), one afte the task (How sue you ae that you solved the tasks coectly) and one about ovelacement (What ecentage of you fellow students do you think did wose than you in this task?). The fist question (befoe the efomance) 3 was used fo calculation of oveconfidence: the actual scoe fom the estimated scoe fo CRT. A ositive numbe indicated oveconfidence (the estimate was highe than actual efomance); while negative numbes indicated undeconfidence (the estimate was lowe than actual efomance). 3 Altough usually the question is asked afte the efomance, in this case it should eflect exectancy about the futue efomance, which should be moe elated to the ositive exectancy of othe futue events. Lastly, aticiants also estimated thei couse gade. Estimates and actual gades wee ecoded so that a highe scoe means a bette gade. Oveconfidence was again calculated by subtacting the actual gade fom the exected gade; howeve, not all aticiants in the study wee fom one couse, so the eoted numbe of aticiants in the analyses diffes fom the oveall numbe of aticiants. Oveview of the Pocedue Paticiants comleted all measues in two sessions online via Suvio suvey softwae. The fist session, Pedicting futue events, consisted of estimating likelihoods of 28 events haening to them in comaison with aveage student in thei class (diect measue), estimating likelihoods of the same 28 events haening to them and then seaately haening to the aveage student in thei class (indiect measue). Then they wee asked to estimate how many of the following 7 logical tasks will they solve coectly. They comleted 7 cognitive tasks, again answeed how many tasks they believe they solved coectly and estimated ecentage of students that did wose. The measuement of intelligence was done seaately and again, befoe comleting the test, aticiants wee asked to estimate thei IQ and they wee given the ange of noms fo the test used. Demogahic vaiables wee collected at both sessions and these included: gende, age, distict, and education level. Descitive statistics fo all measues ae esented in Table 1. Oveview of Data Analyses Fist, I used one-way Wilcoxon Signed Ranks Test fo analyzing whethe estimated

9 294 STUDIA PSYCHOLOGICA, 58, 2016, 4 Table 1 Descitive statistics fo the whole samle Total Vaiable N M SD 95% CI Age [21.28, 22.79] Gades actual [2.31, 2.96] estimated [2.5, 2.99] oveconfidence [-0.26, 0.36] IQ (VMT) actual [94.15, ] estimated [101.99, ] oveconfidence [3.88, 10.16] CRT7 actual [1.64, 2.38] estimated [3.98, 4.52] oveconfidence [1.85, 2.63] DM Comaative otimism common ositive [-4.27, -1.69] common negative [-1.82, 0.46] ae ositive [-15.62, ] ae negative [-13.34, ] IM Comaative otimism common ositive [-0.98, 2.13] common negative [-5.35, -3.20] ae ositive [-2.45, 0.30] ae negative [-5.49, -3.50] Note. VMT = Vienna Matix Test; CRT7 = exanded vesion of Cognitive Reflection Test; DM = Diect measue; IM = Indiect measue likelihoods fo self (using diect measue) ae significantly diffeent fom the hyothesized mean = 0 (which would be the case if aticiants would estimate the same likelihoods fo self and thei ees fo all kinds of events). Then I used Wilcoxon Signed Ranks Test fo 2 elated vaiables (self estimates vs. ee estimates) fo analyzing diffeences using indiect measue. Fo testing the ediction that aticiants will show otimism fo common events (egadless of thei desiability), but will show essimism fo ate events (egadless of thei desiability) two-way Fiedman test (as non-aametic altenative to the oneway ANOVA with eeated measues) was efomed. To test whethe estimated efomance diffes fom the actual efomance the aied t-test was used. To test the hyothesized elationshis between otimism and oveconfidence I used Peason coelation. Lastly, to comae whethe thee wee significant shifts in the diection between diect and indiect measue of unealistic otimism, Wilcoxon Signed Ranks test was used.

10 STUDIA PSYCHOLOGICA, 58, 2016, Results Fequency vesus Desiability of Events The fist ediction that aticiants would see themselves as moe likely than the aveage student to exeience a common event and less likely than the aveage student to exeience a ae event was tested. Results of diect measue show (Table 2) that this ediction was diectionally confimed in 19 out of 28 cases, and to a statistically significant degee in 18 of them. Howeve, egading common events thee wee 7 statistically significant diffeences in the oosite diection than edicted, i.e. that aticiants saw themselves as less likely than thei ees to exeience 4 common ositive events (owning a house, wok ecognized by an awad, gaduating with honos, and stating salay above 800), and also less likely than thei ees to exeience 3 common negative events (a seeding ticket, being heatboken befoe the age of 40, and being involved in a ca accident). Geneally, the aticiants estimated that both ositive and negative events ae less likely to haen to them than to an aveage student in thei class. Thus, they showed essimism egading ositive events and otimism egading negative events (moe so fo ae negative events). The ediction about the suosed otimism due to the fequency was tue only fo the ae events. In common events it was tue in 5 out of 14 cases. Thee is the tend in line with the ediction fo comosite likelihood scoes fo common ositive, ae ositive, common negative and ae negative scoes (Table 1); moeove, analyzing CIs shows significant diffeences between the fou comosite likelihood estimates. I also analyzed diffeences between selfestimate and ee-estimate (indiect measue) and in this case, the ediction that aticiants would see themselves as moe likely than the aveage student to exeience a common event and less likely than the aveage student to exeience a ae event was diectionally confimed in 16 out of 28 cases, and to statistically significant degee in 11 of them (Table 3). Again, thee wee statistical significant diffeences between estimates of likelihoods fo self and othe in the oosite diection in 7 cases. Majoity of these esults oosing the ediction egaded otimism fo common negative events, i.e., aticiants saw themselves as significantly less likely to exeience these events. The means and 95% confidence intevals fo common ositive and negative events, and ae ositive and negative events ae esented in Table 1. They suggest that aticiants estimated the likelihood of common events haening to them as being much highe than the likelihood of ae events haening to them, comaed with the aveage eson and egadless of thei desiability. The likelihood of common/ae vesus ositive/negative events was futhe analyzed with Fiedman test, because the data wee not nomally distibuted. Thee was a statistically significant diffeence in estimated likelihood (diect measue) deending on fequency and desiability of event, χ 2 (3) = , <.001. Post-hoc analyses by a Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test with Bonfeoni coection set at =.0125 showed that aticiants dislayed significantly lage otimism fo ae negative events than common negative events (Z = , =.009) and significantly lage essimism fo ae ositive events than common ositive events (Z = , <.001), suggesting sig-

11 296 STUDIA PSYCHOLOGICA, 58, 2016, 4 Table 2 Unealistic otimism and essimism in diect comaisons by event aity and desiability (One-Samle Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test with hyothesized Median = 0) N = 109 Diect measue Diect measue Common ositive events M SD st.test stat Rae ositive events M SD st.test stat owning own ca owning own ailane owning own house owning own island living ast living ast tavelling to Euoe tavelling to the Moon wok ecognized with awad wok ecognized with Nobel ize gaduating with honous gaduating in to 1% of my county stating salay stating salay Common negative events Rae negative events ticket fo diving too fast ticket fo diving too slowly gaining 5 kg in the next 5 yeas gaining 5 kg in the next week catching flu in the next 4 yeas catching flu in the next 2 weeks being stessed out befoe an exam being stessed out befoe a esidential election heatboken befoe age heat attack befoe age involved in a ca accident being shiwecked ainful teatment by a dentist ainful teatment by acuunctuist

12 STUDIA PSYCHOLOGICA, 58, 2016, Table 3 Unealistic otimism and essimism in indiect comaisons by event aity and desiability (Wilcoxon Signed Ranks Test fo 2 elated vaiables) N = 109 Indiect measue Indiect measue Common ositive events M SD Z Rae ositive events M SD Z owning own ca <.001 owning own ailane owning own house owning own island living ast living ast tavelling to Euoe tavelling to the Moon wok ecognized with awad wok ecognized with Nobel ize gaduating with honous gaduating in to 1% of my county stating salay stating salay Common negative events Rae negative events ticket fo diving too fast ticket fo diving too slowly gaining 5 kg in the next 5 yeas <.001 gaining 5 kg in the next week catching flu in the next 4 yeas catching flu in the next 2 weeks being stessed out befoe an exam being stessed out befoe a esidential election heatboken befoe age <.001 heat attack befoe age involved in a ca accident <.001 being shiwecked ainful teatment by a dentist ainful teatment by acuunctuist

13 298 STUDIA PSYCHOLOGICA, 58, 2016, 4 nificant effect of fequency of the event. They also undeestimated moe the likelihood of common ositive than common negative event (Z = , <.001), and they undeestimated moe the likelihood of ae ositive than ae negative event (Z = , <.001). The esults wee then analyzed using indiect measue as well. Thee was a statistically significant diffeence in estimated likelihood (indiect measue) deending on fequency and desiability of event, χ 2 (3) = , <.001. Post-hoc analyses by a Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test with Bonfeoni coection set at =.0125 showed that aticiants did not dislay significantly lage otimism fo ae negative events than common negative events (Z = , =.909) and neithe did they dislay significantly lage essimism fo ae ositive events than common ositive events (Z = , <.019), suggesting thee was no significant effect of fequency of the event. Howeve, they undeestimated moe the likelihood of common negative than common ositive event (Z = , <.001), and they undeestimated moe the likelihood of ae negative than ae ositive event (Z = , <.001), suggesting geate otimism of aticiants. Coelations between Otimism/Pessimism and Oveconfidence The aticiants wee also geneally oveconfident about thei efomance (Table 1). Thei estimated aveage efomance in the CRT was above 1 SD moe than thei actual efomance (they exected to coectly solve moe than half of the 7 logical tasks, but in fact solved only 2 of the tasks coectly) and this diffeence was statistically significant (t (108) = , < 0.001). Thei actual IQ was on aveage 7 oints lowe than anticiated and again, this diffeence was statistically significant (t (120) = , < 0.001). Only the gades wee estimated with some degee of accuacy by the aticiants and the diffeence between the estimated and actual gade was not significant (t (64) = 0.299, = 0.766). All thee measues of oveconfidence coelated weakly togethe (see Table 4). Geneally, thee was little coelation between oveconfidence on any measue and otimism/ essimism egading futue events. Howeve, thee wee the following two coelations: a negative one ( = -.241, =.012) between oveconfidence (CRT) and estimation of the likelihood of common negative events (diect method) and anothe negative one ( = -.259, =.012) between oveconfidence (VMT) and estimation of ae negative events (indiect method). In othe wods, the moe oveconfident also the moe otimistic wee the aticiants (i.e., they estimated that they ae less likely than aveage eson to exeience common negative o ae negative events). Comaing Diect and Indiect Measues As a last ste I efomed a set of analyses on the indiect measue of otimism bias. The ationale was that the diect comaisons should involve egocentic oveweighting, while indiect comaison can shot-cicuit the egocentism by focing individuals to conside the comaison gou (Kuge & Buus, 2004; Rose et al., 2008). The esults showed that the diffeence between self-estimates and ee-estimates in likelihoods of exeiencing a given event was smalle when the event was ositive (M(common) = 0.58, M(ae) = -1.07) and

14 STUDIA PSYCHOLOGICA, 58, 2016, Table 4 Peason s coelations between unealistic comaative otimism and oveconfidence measues estimated gade a actual gade a oveconfidence fo gade a estimated IQ b actual IQ (VMT) b oveconfidence fo IQ b estimated CRT7 c actual CRT7 c oveconfidence fo CRT7 c common ositive events (DM) c common negative events (DM) c ae ositive events (DM) c ae negative events (DM) c common ositive events (IM) c common negative events (IM) c ae ositive events (IM) c ae negative events (IM) c **.473**.525** * ** ** **.337** ** -.459** * * * * ** **.329** ** * ** * ** ** -.242* * *.012 Note. VMT = Vienna Matix Test; CRT7 = exanded vesion of Cognitive Reflection Test; DM = Diect measue; IM = Indiect measue a N = 65, b N = 94, c N = ** **.207* ** ** * ** ** ** * * ** ** ** ** ** **.340** -.414**.326** **.199* **.325** ** * ** ** ** ** **

15 300 STUDIA PSYCHOLOGICA, 58, 2016, 4 lage when the event was negative (M(common) = -4.28, M(ae) = -4.50). When I comaed diect and indiect estimates of likelihoods, I found 5 significant shifts in the oosite diection: owning a house (Z = , <.001), catching a flu in the next 4 yeas (Z = , <.001), being stessed befoe an exam (Z = , <.001), owning one s own island (Z = , <.001), and living ast 100 yeas (Z = , <.001). Paticiants wee significantly moe otimistic egading common ositive events and also common negative events using the indiect measue. On the othe hand, they dislayed moe otimism egading ae negative events using the diect measue they estimated much less likelihood of exeiencing ae negative events when diectly comaing thei chances with the aveage student. The most essimistic estimates wee in estimating the likelihood of ae ositive events using the diect measue using the indiect measue, the essimism almost disaeaed and the aticiants judged thei chances to be about the same as those of the aveage student. Discussion In this ae I tested thee hyotheses: 1) whethe aticiants will show otimism fo common events, but sill show essimism fo ae events (egadless of thei desiability), 2) whethe thee is a elationshi between otimism and oveconfidence and 3) whethe indiect measue will yield moe essimism due to lowe egocentism. The fist hyothesis was not fully suoted. The exected and obseved esults ae shown in Table 5. The esults of this study suot neithe the unealistic hyothesis no the egocentism hyothesis fully aticiants aeaed to be somewhat essimistic in estimating likelihoods of mainly ositive events haening to them; they wee quite otimistic in execting to avoid negative events. Although I used the same tasks as Kuge and Buus (2004) I did not Table 5 Comaison of exected and obseved esults Exected diection of unealistic otimism hyothesis Exected diection of statistical atefact and egocentism hyotheses (Kuge & Buus, 2004) Obseved esults by diect measue Obseved esults by indiect measue Common ositive Common negative Rae ositive Rae negative Note. Positive/negative sign indicates whethe the sum of likelihoods wee geate (+) o lowe (-) fo self than fo the aveage student. Shaded aeas eesent otimistic exectation, blank aeas eesent essimistic exectation (in comaison with aveage student).

16 STUDIA PSYCHOLOGICA, 58, 2016, geneally elicate thei findings in my samle. In thei study, aticiants showed otimism in all eight estimates of common ositive events (they exected that they would be moe likely than the aveage student in thei class to exeience them) and in all eight estimates of ae negative events (they exected that they would be less likely than the aveage student in thei class to exeience them). In geneal, they oveestimated the obability of common events haening to them (egadless of thei desiability) and undeestimated the obability of ae events haening to them (again egadless of thei desiability). In my samle thee wee only 3 out of 7 otimistic estimates of common ositive events (and only two of them statistically significant), but aticiants still undeestimated the likelihood of exeiencing ae negative events and thus dislayed the same otimism as Kuge and Buus s samle. On the othe hand, in my samle thee wee 5 out of 7 otimistic estimates of a common negative event. Thus, desite my edictions, based on Kuge and Buus s study, my samle did not oveestimate thei likelihood of exeiencing common negative esults to the same extent. Howeve, close scutiny of the content of the questionnaie may exlain some of these ambiguous esults. Students in this samle wee otimistic that they would have thei own ca, live ast 70, and tavel acoss Euoe events that ae quite likely fo the majoity of futue adults. Tavelling acoss Euoe meant obably something diffeent fo the aticiants in Kuge and Buus s study, but it was egaded as a common ositive event. Even though tavelling aboad is vey affodable nowadays, esecially within Euoe, it would be obably moe suitable to use item tavel to the U.S. (o othe continent) fo Euoean samles. They wee essimistic in thei lookouts fo owning thei own house, getting a estigious awad fo thei wok, gaduating with honos and having a stating salay of moe than 800. These events ae obably not so common fo adults in Slovakia in the futue comaed with adults in the United States. Students at the Pedagogical Faculty know that if they ae going to wok as teaches, thei salay will be low 4 and thee will be a small chance of them uchasing a house. Similaly, studying at the Pedagogical faculty is not consideed estigious so thei degee esults (and ehas thei exectations) ae fa lowe comaed with some othe faculties. On the othe hand, cuent samle was also moe otimistic in estimating common negative events they wee essimistic only about catching the flu and being stessed out befoe an exam. They did not exect to get seeding tickets, to gain weight, to have a boken heat, to be involved in a ca accident, o to undego a ainful ocedue at the dentist. Some of these esults can be exlained by gende fo examle, women ae usually safe dives, so it is less likely that they will get a seeding ticket o be involved in a ca cash. Also, students do not dive cas in Slovakia 4 Salaies of teaches ae calculated accoding to the tables ovided by the Ministy of Education. Salay class is assigned accoding to the education degee and yeas of actice. Stating salay fo a teache with M.A. degee in education in his/he aea of exetise with 0 yeas of actice belongs usually to the Salay Class 9. Stating salay in this categoy is goss (Stunica latových taíf edagogických zamestnancov a odboných zamestnancov a zvýšenie latových taíf v závislosti od dĺžky zaočítanej axe účinné od 1. januáa 2016, 2015), which is about 550 net.

17 302 STUDIA PSYCHOLOGICA, 58, 2016, 4 as much as they do in the U.S., so they conside ca-elated events as less likely fo them when comaed with Ameican samles. Otimistic outlooks about one s aeaance and not having one s heat boken ae inteesting in thei own ight and would need moe examination, but they suggest that gende obably affects otimism bias. Fo examle, White, Cunningham, and Titchene (2011) found that gende and exeience both have seveal main effects in skill-elated tyes of otimism among young novice dives. Men dislayed moe otimism bias egading thei oveall skills and hazad ecetion than women. Also Lin and Raghubi (2005) found that men ae geneally moe unealistically otimistic than women, which could atly exlain the lowe otimism of the aticiants. The second hyothesis focused on the elationshi between otimism and oveconfidence. The esults seem to suot claims made by vaious eseaches (Radcliffe & Klein, 2002; Sheed et al., 2013) that geate cae should be taken in distinguishing between unealistic comaative and unealistic absolute otimism. Fo examle, Radcliffe and Klein (2002) found that eole high in comaative otimism ossessed an adative isk and belief ofile and knew moe about isk factos fo heat attacks, wheeas eole high in unealistic absolute otimism exhibited the oosite atten, showing some defensiveness about leaning about the isk factos associated with heat attacks, although they wee moe at isk. Radcliffe and Klein (2002) used an objective measue to estimate the individual isks of a heat attack, but this is not always ossible. Theefoe, the next ste should be to look fo ways of distinguishing between adative and maladative foms of otimism (o to identify when otimism stats to become maladative and a defensive stategy). The aticiants wee oveconfident in estimating thei own efomance in cognitive abilities tasks the moe oveconfident they wee, the wose thei efomance was. These findings ae, in fact, consistent with the Thustonian theoy (Mooe & Healy, 2008), which holds that individuals with the best efomances on any given task ae most likely to undeestimate thei actual efomances and also with Kuge-Dunning hyothesis (Kuge & Dunning, 1999) that those most incometent/unskilled lack the meta-cognitive ability to eflect uon thei deficiencies. On the othe hand, like othe eseaches (Amo & Taylo, 2002; Taylo et al., 1992) I found modeate coelation between anticiated IQ and actual IQ scoe, and between anticiated efomance in the CRT and actual efomance. It means that eole can evaluate thei elative cognitive abilities, although they tend to highly oveestimate the actual scoe. Intelligence was not much easie to estimate than the CRT the obseved atten of coelations was vey simila fo both intelligence and CRT. Both tests elicited high disceancy between anticiated and actual efomance, but desite this otimism, those who anticiated highe scoes tended to scoe bette than those execting lowe scoes (though still much less than they anticiated). Oveconfidence seems to be elated moe to the lack of insight o metacognitive skills, as it is consistently found that even eole with high cognitive abilities often fail such elatively simle tasks as CRT, which equie that a ecognition of the fist answe may be a wong one (Čavojová & Hanák, 2014; Fedeick, 2005; Stanovich, 2011, 2012).

18 STUDIA PSYCHOLOGICA, 58, 2016, Also the comaison of the thee gous of aticiants in tems of thei ealistic/otimistic/essimistic estimation of intelligence suggests that thee is only a small ovela between comaative otimism and oveconfidence those who wee most oveconfident about thei intelligence wee not geneally most otimistic in thei estimations of the likelihood of exeiencing ositive events o avoiding negative events. It seems that otimism is quite context-elevant and obably deends on ou evious exeiences with the task (Amo & Taylo, 2002), the faming of the task (Eise et al., 2001) and othe factos. Eise et al. (2001) also suggest that exhibiting otimism bias can be affected by self-esentational stategies secific to the domain of exam efomance that suesses exessed otimism, and both ou cognitive abilities tasks could be viewed as a sot of exam. It is obable that aticiants ealized that thei anticiated efomance would be comaed with thei actual efomance, which may lead them to otentially falsify boastful claims, although they still oveestimated thei abilities (Hadman, 2009). The lack of coelation between oveconfidence in the CRT and oveconfident estimates of intelligence o otimistic bias in estimating futue events suggests that otimism is domain-secific and that even such simila domains as cognitive tasks do not yield simila levels of oveconfidence. Anothe ossible eason fo the lack of elationshis found between unealistic comaative otimism and oveconfidence could be that the samle aeaed to be moe essimistic than otimistic in estimating likelihoods of vaious events haening to them. Moeove, the esults comaing diect and indiect method do not confom to the obsevation made by Rose et al. (2008) that indiect method, due the suession of egocentism bias, yields moe essimistic estimates. Quite the contay, aticiants in this study wee not unealistically essimistic when negative events wee fequent. As is tue of many studies, this one also has some limits that should be mentioned. Fist, the samle used has its secifics (e.g., gende comosition, caee exectations, academic efomance, etc.), theefoe, the esults ae not genealizable to othe oulations, due to ossible gende and othe diffeences. The study also suffes the same methodological difficulties egading the comaative otimism on an absolute level, such as the inability to know with whom the aticiants choose to comae themselves, o the aaent otimism o oveconfidence may be due to statistical atefact easons and may in fact eflect ational udating of beliefs (Benoit & Duba, 2011; Hais & Hahn, 2011). Anothe limit may lay in the mateials used it would be necessay fist to test the actual desiability and eceived fequency of events used in the questionnaie, as not all the ositive events may be equally desiable fo all aticiants (Cave et al., 2010). Conclusion To summaize the esults: The aticiants in this study wee geneally essimistic in thei futue osects egading the ositive events haening to them, but on the othe hand, they wee geneally otimistic that negative events ae less likely to haen to them and this tendency was moe onounced fo ae than fo common events. The most obable exlanation fo this cuious finding is that the study was done on a samle of edagogy students, who may be less otimistic about thei futue osects