Fertility Situation in Bangladesh: Application of Revised Bongaarts Model

Transcription

1 Scinc and Tchnology 2015, 5(2): DOI: /j.scit Frtility Situation in Bangladsh: Application of Rvisd Bongaarts Modl Md. Rashdul Islam 1,*, Md. Nurul Islam 1, Md. Monsur Rahman 1, Md. Golam Hossain 1, Md. Rafiqul Islam 2 1 Dpartmnt of Statistics, Univrsity of Rajshahi, Rajshahi, Bangladsh 2 Dpartmnt of Population Scinc and Human Rsourc Dvlopmnt, Univrsity of Rajshahi, Rajshahi, Bangladsh Abstract In this papr w usd Rvisd Bongaarts Modl (RBM) for stimating approximatly corrct valu of total frtility rat (TFR) for data obtaind from 1975-, nationwid dmographic survys. Th contribution of ach of th proximat variabls has bn obtaind through th dcomposition of TFR for th priod at four points of tim. Our analyss clarly indicat that contracptiv practic is playing th ky rol in frtility chang in Bangladsh. Th findings of th study provid a basis for drawing out som policy adoption and prscrib som rcommndations for furthr dcras in TFR of Bangladsh. Kywords Original Bongaarts Modl (OBM), Rvisd Bongaarts Modl (RBM), Frtility Situation, Miscarriag & Stillbirth, ontracption, Ftal Wastag 1. Introduction Bangladsh is th most dnsly and is th 8 th most populatd country in th world. According to th rsults of th Population and Housing nsus (PH), th population of th country stood at about 14, 98, 00, 000 with a population dnsity of 1,015 prsons pr squar kilomtr, which is th highst population dnsity in th world (BBS, ). During th past cntury, th population of Bangladsh has incrasd xponntially. Btwn 2001 and cnsuss, about 19.8 million popl wr addd to th population, which rprsnts a 15% incras and a 1.37% annual growth rat. Bangladsh has undrgon a rmarkabl dmographic chang ovr th last 45 yars. In , womn in Bangladsh wr having on avrag 6.3 childrn. Th total frtility rat (TFR) dclind to 5.1 childrn fiftn yars latr and to 4.2 childrn in Th TFR, platau at around 3.3 pr woman for most of th 1990s whn th thr arlir Bangladsh Dmographic and Halth Survy () took plac (, 1993/94, 1996/97, 1999/2000). Th frtility rat has dclind slightly to 3 childrn pr woman (, 2004). omparison of th TFR, with othr Asian countris that hav implmntd a Dmographic and Halth Survy (DHS), indicats that, with a TFR of 3, Bangladsh is in th mid-rang among th countris-blow Npal 4.1 in 2001, ambodia 3.8 in 2000, and th Philippins 3.5 in 2003, but highr than India 2.8 in , Indonsia 2.6 in * orrsponding author: rafiqu_pops@yahoo.com (Md. Rashdul Islam) Publishd onlin at opyright 2015 Scintific & Acadmic Publishing. All Rights Rsrvd , and Vitnam 1.9 in 2002 (, 2007; Aln & Worku, 2008; Gurmu & Mac, 2008; Mkonnn & Worku, ). Th lvl of frtility in a socity is dirctly influncd by a st of variabls calld intrmdiat variabls or proximat dtrminants. Th primary charactr of an intrmdiat frtility variabl is its dirct influnc on frtility. Davis and Blak (1956) producd th first systmatic classification of th proximat dtrminants of frtility through which conomic, social and othr factors must oprat to control frtility. Bongaarts (Bongaarts, 1978 and Mosly, 1978) rvisd th original classification and provid a simpl analytical mthod accounting framwork, which prmits a quantitativ assssmnt of th contribution of diffrnt proximat dtrminants to giv frtility lvls (ain & Winingr, 1973; Hr & David, 1966; Dfranzo, 1976; Bongaarts & Pottr, 1983; Ijaiya t al., 2009). Bongaarts (1982) dmonstratd that most of th variation in frtility was du to four intrmdiat variabls which wr marriag, contracption, inducd abortion and lactational infcundability. If a proximat dtrminant such as contracptiv us changs, thn frtility ncssarily changs assuming th othr proximat dtrminants rmains constant (Kohli, 1977; Salm & Pasha, 2008). As a rsult, frtility diffrncs among population and changs in frtility ovr tim can always b tracd to variations in on or mor of th proximat dtrminants (Salm and Pasha, 2008; Jayaraman t al., 2008). In Bangladsh, Islam t al. (1996) and som othr rsarchrs (Kabir & Rob, 1990; Islam & Islam, 1993; Abdin & Islam, 1994) showd contracption was th most important frtility inhibiting factor from 1971 to 2007,

2 34 Md. Rashdul Islam t al.: Frtility Situation in Bangladsh: Application of Rvisd Bongaarts Modl followd by lactational infcundability, marriag and inducd abortion. To improv our clar undrstanding of th frtility chang (Islam, 1996; Jayaraman t al., 2008; Mkonnn and Worku, ), w critically xamin th ffct of major proximat dtrminants: marriag, contracption, lactational infcundability on frtility and thir changing ffcts. Th frtility inhibiting ffcts of ths proximat dtrminants hav significant implications on rproductiv halth and futur population growth (Spoornbrg, 2009). This study attmpts to idntify th four intrmdiat variabls namly proportion marrid among fmals, contracptiv us ffctivnss, ftal wastag (including, inducd abortion) and duration of lactational infcundability and invstigats thir impacts on chang in th lvl of frtility. During this priod dcomposing Original Bongaarts Modl (OBM) (Bongaarts, 1983) and RBM (Islam t al., 2014) asssss th individual contribution mad by ach of th four intrmdiat variabls to chang th frtility lvl. Th study also xamins how wll ths dtrminants prdict frtility lvl in Bangladsh. This has bn don by comparing obsrvd total frtility rat as stimatd by th modl. 2. Sourcs of Data Data hav bn drivd from Bangladsh Frtility Survys 1975, and Bangladsh Dmographic and Halth Survys , , , 2004, 2007 and. All ths survys ar nationally rprsntativ and th data hav providd by ths survys ar of good quality. 3. Mthodology 3.1. Th Original Bongaarts Modl Bongaarts modl of stimating th ffct of four proximat dtrminants assums that th natural rproductiv capacity that is total fcundity rats (TF) is narly th sam for all womn, but thir actual rproductiv prformanc is modifid by four major proximat dtrminants. In his modl, Bongaarts (1978) xprssd TFR is th product of four indics masuring th frtility inhibiting ffct of ths four indics and th TF is th avrag numbr of liv births xpctd among womn who during thir ntir rproductiv priod, rmain marrid, do not us contracption, do not hav any inducd abortion and do not brastfd thir childrn (Bongaarts, 1982). According to Bongaarts modl, th TFR can b writtn as TFR = m c a i TF (1) Whr, m is th indx of proportion marrid, c is th indx of non-contracption, a is th indx of inducd abortion, i is th indx of lactational infcundability and TF is th total fcundity Rvisd Bongaarts Modl (RBM) In original Bongaarts modl, it is rplacd only th indx all ftal wastag (combination of miscarriag, abortion and stillbirth) instad of th indx inducd abortion which was on of th proximat dtrminants of frtility. Othr indics hav rmaind sam as proposd by Bongaarts original modl. Rvisd Bongaarts modl (Islam t al., 2014) is TFR = m c i TF (2) Whr, th indx of ftal wastag ( ) is dfind as th ratio of th obsrvd TFR to th stimatd TFR with all ftal wastag which is (TFR+AFW), that is TFR = ( TFR + AFW ) Whr AFW quals th avrag numbr of birth avrtd pr woman by th nd of th rproductiv yars for all ftal wastag and which is stimatd by AFW = 0.4 (1 + u) TFW (4) Whr, TFW is th total ftal wastag rat and AFW is th avrag numbr of all ftal wastag pr woman at th nd of th rproductiv yars Total Frtility Inhibiting Effct Accountd for Proximat Dtrminants Th diffrnc btwn th TF, takn as 15.3 in and th stimatd TFR is attributd th rsult of th inhibitory ffct of ach variabl. Th total inhibiting ffct is proratd by th proportion of th logarithm of ach indx to th sum of logarithm of all indics (Wang, 1987). Effct of marriag = [ TF TFR( stimatd) ] logm logm + logc + log i + log Effct of ontracption = [ TF TFR( stimatd) ] logc logm + logc + log i + log Effct of Postpartum Infcundability = [ TF TFR( stimatd) ] logi logm + logc + log i + log Effct of ftal wastag = [ TF TFR( stimatd) ] log logm + logc + log i + log (3) Hr, TFR (stimatd) = m c i (5) 3.4. Dcomposition of th hangs in Frtility Rvisd Bongaarts modl (RBM) givn by th quation (2) of 3.2 can asily b turnd to a dcomposition quation that allows th quantification of th contribution mad by ach of

3 Scinc and Tchnology 2015, 5(2): th four intrmdiat frtility variabls to an obsrvd chang in frtility btwn two tim points t 1 and t 2 th basic quation is as follows TFR( t2) TFR( t ) 1 = m( t ( 2) ( 2) 2) ( 2) ( 2) c t t i t TF t ( t ) ( t ) ( t ) ( t ) TF( t ) m 1 c 1 1 i 1 1 If th two points of tims ar 1975 and, using quation (6) for two tims 1975 and, w can show that: TFR() () () = m c TFR(1975) (1975) (1975) m () i () TF() (1975) (1975) TF(1975) i Again, TFR() P f = - 1 = Proportional chang in TFR TFR(1975) btwn 1975 and. () P m = m - 1= Proportional chang in TFR du to m(1975) a chang in th indx of marriag. () P c = c - 1= Proportional chang in TFR du to a c (1975) chang in th indx of contracption. () P = - 1= Proportional chang in TFR du to (1975) a chang in th indx of ftal wastag. P i = i () -1= Proportional chang in TFR du to a i (1975) chang in th lactational infcundability. P r = TF() - 1= Proportional chang in TFR du to a TF(1975) chang in th rmaining proximat dtrminants: natural fcundability, spontanous intrautrin mortality and c (6) (7) prmannt strility. Equation (1) can b rarrangd as P f = P m + P c + P + P i + P r + I (8) Whr, I rprsnt an intraction factor. This quation simply stats that a givn proportional chang in th TFR btwn 1975 and qual to th sum of th proportional frtility changs du to th diffrnt intrmdiat frtility variabls plus an intraction trm. It is simply stimatd by substituting th sum of P m, P c, P, P i and P r from P f. Equation (8) can now asily b turnd into a dcomposition quation for th absolut dclin in TFR () viz. TFR () - TFR (1975) multiplying TFR (1975). 4. Rsults and Discussion Tabl 1. Estimats of diffrnt indics of frtility, Bangladsh On th basis of OBM givn in quation (1) and RBM in quation (2), th stimatd valus of th masurs and indics for diffrnt tim points ar prsntd in Tabl 1. Th complmnt of th indics rprsnts th proportionat rduction in frtility attributd to th frtility dtrminant. Th lowr th stimatd valu of th indics, th largr th frtility rduction ffct. Thus, w hav found th valu of m in 1975 was 0.859, indicating that th proportion of marrid womn rducs frtility by 14.1%, whil th valu of m in was 0.785, in was 0.781, in was 0.776, in 2004 was 0.731, in 2007 was and in was indicating that th proportion of womn marrid wr rducs frtility by 21.5%, 21.9%, 22.34%, 26.9%, 25.26% and 18.58% rspctivly. Th valu of c in 1975 was indicating that th indx of contracption rducs frtility by 6.8%, whil th valu of c in was 0.718, in was 0.548, in was , in 2004 was , in 2007 was and in was indicating that th indx of contracption rducs frtility wr by 28.20%, 45.2%, 47.06%, 54.61%, 52.43% and 57.5% rspctivly. Yar and sourcs 1975 Masurs and indics / TFR(obs.) TF (assumd) m c i a NA TFR (OBM); (sti.) TFR (RBM); (sti.) NA Not- (NA: Not availabl); TFR (obs.): Total frtility rat (obsrvd), m : Indx of proportion marrid, c : Indx of non-contracption, a : Indx of inducd abortion, : Indx of ftal wastag, i : Indx of lactational infcundability Sourcs: 1975, ; , , , 2004, 2007,. Othr than obsrvd and assumd valus indicat author s calculation basd on th abov sourcs.

4 36 Md. Rashdul Islam t al.: Frtility Situation in Bangladsh: Application of Rvisd Bongaarts Modl Th impact of contracption on rducing frtility varis from on tim point to othr, bcaus of incras in us ffctivnss of mthods. In rcnt yars, th us of contracption incrasd and as a rsult th avrag frtility rducing impact on contracption also incrasd. It is clar from Tabl 1 that thr ar downward trnd in m and c, and i which indicat th rduction of frtility. Again, th indx lactational amnorrha i in was It indicats that th avrag stimatd ffct was strongr for th rduction in frtility 33.11%, compard with th valu of th indx i in 2004 was which indicats that th avrag stimatd ffct is strong for th rduction in frtility 25.68%. And th valu of i in 2007 was indicats that th avrag stimatd ffct is strongr for th rduction in frtility 38.39% during th last dcad. Th rsults prsntd in Tabl 1 rcommnd that ftal wastag is also playing a positiv rol in frtility rduction from to. In th last twnty thr yars, it rducs about 16% frtility, which confirms th incras of ftal dath in Bangladsh. Tabl 2 xhibits th trnd for ach proximat variabl of frtility for th priod Th rsults indicat that a total of births in 1975 bing inhibitd: births wr du to ffct of marriag variabl; was du to contracption and wr du to postpartum infcundability. A total of births in bing inhibitd; 1.55 births wr du to ffct of marriag variabl; births wr du to contracption; births wr du to postpartum infcundability and birth was du to ftal dath. Tabl 2 dpicts that th contribution of marriag in rducing frtility wr incrasd to births pr woman Proximat Variabls in 2004 to dcrasd birth pr woman in, from a lvl of births pr woman in Also, th ffct of contracptiv us incrasd to births pr woman in 2004 and incrasd to births pr woman in, from a lvl of births pr woman in Oppositly, th ffct of postpartum infcundability dcrasd during thr and a half dcads but prfctly w could not draw any clar conclusion about lactational infcundability during ths priods. Sam dirctional rsults w had found btwn two priod 2007 and, xcpt th ffct of ftal dath. Tabl 3 suggsts that, a total 100% births had constraind in th priod 1975 du to four major proximat dtrminants. Marriag pattrn inhibitd % births, contracption 8.065%, and lactational infcundability % births. Similarly, in, a total of 100% births: marriag pattrn, contracption, lactational infcundability and ftal wastag inhibitd %, %, % and % births rspctivly. Th analyss suggst that lactational infcundability had playd a significant rol in rducing frtility bfor th priod From 1991, family planning mthods occupid its sovrignty and had mrgd as a ky factor of frtility chang in Bangladsh. Th rsults also indicat that, du to succssiv rduction of postpartum amnorrha, th frtility rducing ffct of lactational infcundability wr constantly dcrasing, it is hopful that th valu of lactational infcundability incrasd in 2007, and aftr 2007 it was dcrasd 4% in. Th ffct of marriag pattrn was almost constant manwhil ftal wastag showing bttr prformanc (it should b discourag culturally, bcaus it might brak down family formation and is harmful for womn s ovultory function) in rducing frtility. Tabl 2. Trnds in total frtility inhibiting ffct for proximat variabls, Frtility Inhibiting Effct & Births pr woman 1993/ Marriag ontracption Postpartum Infcundability Ftal wastag [TF-TFR(sti.)] Sourc: calculation basd on Tabl 1 Proximat Variabls Tabl 3. Prcntag in total frtility inhibiting ffct for proximat variabls, Prcntag distribution of Frtility Inhibiting Effct 1993/ Marriag ontracption Postpartum Infcundability Ftal wastag [TF-TFR (sti.)] Sourc: calculation basd on Tabl 2

5 Scinc and Tchnology 2015, 5(2): Tabl 4. Dcomposition of changs in TFR in Bangladsh: hanging Indics Prcntag chang in TFR to to Distribution of prcntag chang in TFR to to Absolut chang in TFR to to P m P c P i P NA NA NA P r I P f Sourc: calculation basd on Tabl 1 and using quation (8). Tabl 4 rprsnts th dcomposition of chang of all indics in TFR among ; and It indicats that TFR had dclind about 22.6% or absolutly 1.43 births from births in births in ; 32.4% or absolutly 1.58 births from births in to 3.31 births in 2000 and 30.5% or absolutly 1.01 births from 3.31 births in 2000 to 2.3 births in. It also indicats that th dcomposition of this dclin in TFR btwn had narly 8.6% dclin du to incras in th proportion of womn marrid, about 23% dclin du to an incras in contracptiv us and ffctivnss but a dramatically chang about approximatly 26% incras du to dcras th duration of lactational infcundability. Th rmaining proximat dtrminants togthr contribut about 12.5% incrass and by intraction factor dcras 4.5% in TFR. Again, th dcomposition of this dclin in TFR btwn had 1.1% dclin du to incras in th proportion of womn marrid, about 27% dclin du to an incras in contracptiv us and ffctivnss, a chang about 23.4% dclin du to incras of th duration of lactational infcundability, about 1% dclin du to incras us of ftal wastag. Th rmaining proximat dtrminants togthr contribut about 22% incrass and by intraction factors dcrass 3% in TFR. Furthrmor, Tabl 4 indicats that during, it had dclind by 1.43 births pr woman of which 0.54 birth dclind by proportion marrid, 1.45 births dclind du to contracptiv us, 1.6 births incrasd du to dcrasd of lactational infcundability, rmaining proximat dtrminants togthr dclin 0.8 birth and th intraction factor had dcrasd 0.3 birth pr woman. During 2000 to, it had dclind by 1.01 births pr woman of which 0.16 birth had incrasd by proportion marrid, 0.65 birth had dclind du to contracptiv us, 1.12 births incrasd du to lactational infcundability which indicat that a ngativ chang du to lactation within 11 yars priod, i.., womn rduc to lactat thir childrn rcntly, it ngativly affct to rduc frtility; 0.06 birth dcrasd by incras us of ftal wastag, 0. 2 birth dcrasd by othr proximat dtrminants is ngligibl and 1.41 births dclind by th intraction factor. During, it had dclind by 4.03 births pr woman of which 0.33 birth had dclind by proportion marrid, 3.44 births dclind du to contracptiv us, 1.75 births incrasd du to lactational infcundability which indicat that a ngativ chang du to lactation within 37 yars priod; that is womn rduc to lactat thir childrn rcntly, it ngativly affct to rduc frtility; 0.75 birth dcrasd by incras us of ftal wastag, 0.09 births incrasd by othr proximat dtrminants, which is ngligibl; and 1.35 births dclind by th intraction factor. 5. onclusions Rvisd Bongaarts modl (RBM) indicats that btwn and , th amount of dcrmnt of TFR was about 34% and it was about 36% btwn and 2004, th amount of dcrmnt of TFR was only 3% btwn 2000 and 2004; th amount of dcrmnt of TFR was 42% btwn and 2007, th amount of dcrmnt of TFR was 10% btwn 2004 and 2007; th amount of dcrmnt of TFR was 4.3% btwn 2004 and ; but th amount of incrmnt of TFR was 6.6% btwn 2007 and ; th amount of dcrmnt of TFR was 38.4% btwn and. Ths wr primarily causd by an incras in th us and ffctivnss of th contracptiv mthods. Thus to achiv th rplacmnt lvl of frtility in Bangladsh th policy implications can b drawn as follows: Awarnss should b mad-up to incras th us of modrn contracptiv mthods, which hav bttr us-ffctivnss. Mak crtain availabl information rgarding bad ffct of tnag prgnancy through diffrnt lctronic and print mdia. Provid information among coupls, low costing and gratr bnfit for th mothr and th child for a long trm xclusiv brastfding.

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