Investigating Travelers Stated Mode Choice Preferences under the Influences of Various Mode Availability Options in BRT System in Surabaya City

Transcription

1 Invstigating Travlrs Statd Mod Choic Prfrncs undr th Influncs of arious Mod Availability Options in BRT Systm in Surabaya City ABM Srtajur RAHMAN 1, Akimasa FUJIWARA 2, Junyi ZHANG 3, Sudarmanto Budi NUGHORO 4, Togar Arifin SILABAN 5 1 Post Graduat Studnt, Graduat School for Intrnational Dvlopmnt and Coopration, Hiroshima Univrsity, (1-5-1 Higashi Hiroshima, Japan, ) srtajrahman@gmail.com 2 Profssor, Graduat School for Intrnational Dvlopmnt and Coopration, Hiroshima Univrsity, (1-5-1 Higashi Hiroshima, Japan, ) afujiw@hiroshima-u.ac.jp 3 Associat Profssor,Graduat School for Intrnational Dvlopmnt and Coopration, Hiroshima Univrsity, ( Higashi Hiroshima, Japan,) zjy@hiroshima-u.ac.jp 4 Assistant Profssor,Graduat School for Intrnational Dvlopmnt and Coopration, Hiroshima Univrsity, (1-5-1 Higashi Hiroshima, Japan.) sbntotok@hiroshima-u.ac.jp 5 Chif, Urban Environmntal Agncy, Surabaya City (Jalan Jimrto 25-27,Surabaya 60272, Indonsia,) togarsilaban@gmail.com Abstract: This study invstigats commutrs mod choic bhavior for work trips in rspct to individual charactristics, socio conomic variabls, mod attributs, mod availability, vhicl ownrship tc. Mod choic modls of multinomial logit typ hav widly bn dvlopd basd on statd prfrnc survy considring som futur hypothtical scnario whr accss mod, main mod and grss mod availability diffrs from on trip makrs to anothr. A modl proposd in this study analyzs using data from th Surabaya City. Th analysis implis that important dtrministic variabls for th individuals travl dcision includ houshold monthly incom, job status, and main mod prfrnc. This study rvals commutrs hiddn prfrncs for mods that ar not in xistnc, in particular th Bus Rapid Transit Systm in th Surabaya City du to b fully implmntd in Th dvlopd modls wr thn usd to xprss complx travl bhavior and forcasting travl dmand for nw transport srvics by simulation analysis. Finally, chs in mod choic probabilitis undr various mod availability options wr dtrmind undr Bus Rapid Transit systm. Kywords: Statd prfrnc survy, Mod availability, Bus Rapid Transit, Mod Choic Probability 1

2 1. INTRODUCTION: Citis around th world ar grappling with th many consquncs of rising motorization and traffic congstion. In particular, th whol urban transportation systms in dvloping citis ar ching rapidly du to conomic dvlopmnt. Th ngativ xtrnalitis such as lost tim and productivity, vhicular accidnts, grnhous gas missions and associatd halth hazards has bn causd much mor prompt and srious than th adjustmnts of rsidnts bhavior and attitud. To curb prsonal motor vhicl activity and its impacts on Environmnt it is vry important that public transit srvic is maintaind and nhancd in dvloping citis. Many transportation masurs xist that could lad to significant improvmnts in commutrs xposur by rducing both in-vhicl air pollution and commuting tims. Among ths masurs, Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) systms ar bing implmntd in citis around th world as an fficint, sustainabl, and low-cost altrnativ to undrground or lvatd public transit systm. BRT systms provid a mor rapid, mtro-lik srvic to commutrs by including such faturs as sparatd bus ways, high capacity vhicls, and fixd stations and off bus far collction. Such improvmnts to city s bus systms can potntially lad to significant nvironmntal bnfits by rducing th numbr of vhicls on th road, controlling th numbr of high-polluting starts and stops and rplacing old buss with nw gnration public transport vhicls with improvd tchnologis (Hnry t al 2008). This papr xplors th factors that contribut to improv th public transportation systm basd on an analysis of th oprational prformanc of BRT in Surabaya City which is not yt xisting but likly to b implmntd in nar futur. 2. STUDY AREA AND PROPOSED BUS RAPID TRANSIT SYSTEM: Surabaya City has bn slctd as study ara (figur 1). Surabaya, th capital of ast Java provinc is th scond largst city in Indonsia. Surabaya is a tropical city and locatd at coastal and lowland ara. Th altitud varis from 3 to 10 m abov sa lvl. Population of Surabaya (In 2008) was approximatly 3 million in squar km of ara having a population dnsity of 8394 pr sqkm. Th city is dividd into 31 Districts and 163 sub districts (Anwar t al, 2010). Tabl 1 Yar wis numbr of vhicls in Surabaya City Typs of vhicls 2005 (unit) 2006 (unit) 2007 (unit) Motorcycl Privat Car Pickup Public Bus Angkot Sourc: Transportation Dpartmnt of Surabaya, 2009 Whil currnt urban bus transit taks an important rol to mt rapidly growing mass mobility nds, and curbing prsonal motor vhicl activity and its impacts at low cost, th stat of Surabaya s urban bus transport systms unfortunatly lavs much to b dsird, in trms of outcoms for usrs. Th city s transport sctor has bn advrsly affctd by th rapid urbanization and th conomic dvlopmnt of th country. 2

3 Fig. 1 Study Ara and proposd BRT Ntwork Surabaya city has rlid prdominantly on motorcycl and privat vhicls for yars. On th othr hand public bus transit srvic is inadquat and dcrasing day by day (Tabl 1). This rapid growth of motor vhicl activity in Surabaya city has brought in its wak a r of advrs impacts. Traffic congstion is incrasing rapidly, causing significant tim and productivity losss. Air quality has bn poor in ths cntrs sinc th lat 1990s. Survys hav shown daily avrag suspndd particulat lvls, which ar strongly corrlatd with rspiratory and diovascular disass, xcding World Halth Organization (WHO) guidlin limits almost daily in Surabaya. Morovr, Surabaya s road accidnt rcord, alrady a concrn, is dtriorating stadily, with th avrag dath toll of two prsons pr day. (Polic Dpartmnt, Surabaya). In Surabaya, from 2009 it has bn dcidd by th city authority to clbrat fr day on Sunday 3 and th tim duration of clbration is from 6 AM to 10 AM. On important strt (Raya Darmo Strt) has bn dsignatd for fr day program and during this particular tim no or motorcycl is allowd to mov through this strt. Evn, othr motorizd vhicls lik city bus, kot (public transport) tc ar not allowd to go through this road. Bsid road block for motorizd vhicls, th clbration also consists of som othr componnts lik local ambint air quality monitoring and air quality improvmnt campaign tc. Us of plastic bags in Surabaya has bn normous which caus thousands of marin animal daths vry yar and manufactur of plastic bags adds tons of bon missions into th air annually. To mak mor and mor popl around th city bcoming awar of th nvironmntal issus surrounding plastic bags, Surabaya City authority also launch No plastic bag campaign on rgular

4 basis.bautiful bags mad from cloths and paprs ar distributd or sold to th popl on various occasions (also in fr day) by diffrnt non-govrnmnt organizations (NGO) who dscribs th advrs ffct of using plastic bags and ncourags popl to avoid it. Thr had bn svral such fforts for nvironmntal managmnt in Surabaya City lik th soft policis statd abov and th rcnt ffort is rduction of mission from vhicular mission. A particularly important masur that combats many of th impacts of traffic is th provision of rapid and fficint public transport ntworks as an altrnativ to privat s. BRT systms hav bn idntifid as an inxpnsiv, fficint and incrasingly popular public transportation option. Considring this fact, Surabaya City Govrnmnt has dcidd to implmnt BRT in Surabaya in svral phass. Surabaya Transportation Dpartmnt xpct th total capacity of BRT to ry 3868 prson/hour/way in th pak priod and 1627 prson/hour/way in th off-pak priod rspctivly. Th capacity is 85 prsons pr bus. In th first phas th BRT lin will b implmntd in th North South Dirction and will gradually xtnd th rout in Wst-East dirction in th scond phas as can b sn in fig 1. In ordr to maintain a good lvl of srvic 54 bus unit is plannd to oprat in a dpartur lngth of 19.8 km and rturn lngth of 20.9 km. Estimatd travl tim will b 39.6 minuts and 41.2 minuts for dpartur and rturn. Hadway in th pak priod is 1.31 minut and 3.14 minut in th off-pak priod. Far for BRT has bn dcidd to kp fixd for travlling any distanc and it will b in btwn Rp 2500 and Rp BACKGROUND: As th popl in Surabaya City hav not xprincd th proposd BRT, it is impossibl to us only obsrvd/rcordd diary data about actual travl bhavior to rprsnt popl s futur prfrncs. It is ncssary to xamin th fasibility of SP approach. On th othr hand, this papr focuss on analyzing th influnc of th individual-spcific contxt coming from chs in availability of diffrnt transport mod on mod choic bhavior, whil also incorporating th influnc of th altrnativ-spcific contxt coming from chs in lvl-of-srvic variabls. Yt, it should b kpt in mind that thr might b som bhavioral diffrncs whil conducting hom basd trips and non-hom basd trips. Hr, th hom basd trips ar dalt with, and non-hom basd trip is lft as a futur rsarch issu. This study invstigats complx travl bhavior aftr th introduction of BRT systm. Bsids, th systm is not familiar to th public; socio-conomic conditions will dramatically grow in futur and th xisting various kinds of paratransit should b usd altrnativly as accss mod in Surabaya. Morovr, th local govrnmnt trusts th chs in th public attitud as an ffct of th abov-mntiond soft policis (i.. fr day and no plastic campaigns). To argu such a dramatic ch in th socity, a statd prfrnc survy has bn applid in this study. Th SP approach, originating in th mathmatical psychology, has bn widly usd in transportation bcaus it can masur how popl choos not-yt-xisting travl mods or how popl tak actions in cas of introducing nw policis (.g., road pricing, introduction of nw/intllignt

5 transport systms). This approach xamins th individual rspons to a sris of xprimntally dsignd choic altrnativs, which ar typically dscribd in trms of combinations of attributs with svral prdfind lvls. In addition to th ability to dirctly masur th dmand/rspons undr not-yt-xisting conditions, th SP approach has othr advantags ovr th RP approach, which is basd on th obsrvd choic in ral situations. Ths advantags includ th ability to control statistical problms such as multicollinarity and lack of varianc in xplanatory variabls, th incrasd possibility of including subjctiv or qualitativ factors as xplanatory variabls and cost-fficincy to dvlop modls from a rlativly small siz of sampls. In rcnt yars, thr ar som limitd applications of th rlatd SP applications in dvloping countris. Fillion t al. (2007) dvlopd ordinal and nstd logit modls in th contxt of transport mod choic modls in Mtro Manilla basd on a qustionnair survy to dtrmin what typ and charactristics of mods ar usd by th individual and what mods wr considrd in his/hr rducd choic st. Thin t al. (2010) mad an ffort to captur travlrs statd mod choic prfrncs undr th influnc of incom lvls in Yon city, Myanmar. Bhattacharj t al. (1997) dvlopd a modl basd on statd prfrnc survy to assss commutrs attituds towards travl dmand managmnt in Bkok. Ortuzart al. (2000) studid on dmand stimation for a cycl-way ntwork in Chil. Dissanayak and Morikawa (2010) did transport policy analysis for dvloping countris using a nstd logit modl of vhicl usag, mod choic and trip chain cas study in Bkok mtropolitan rgion. Sjafruddin t al. 5 (2010) conductd dmand rat and lasticity of th urban taxi srvic basd on th statd prfrnc data cas study in Bandung, Indonsia. Furthrmor, Park t al. (2003) mad a fasibility study on th nw transit systm implmntation to th congstd ara in Soul. It is obvious that th SP applications ar gtting popular in many dvloping citis. In many prvious studis in dvloping countris, it has bn assumd that all th altrnativs (including both accss/grss and lin haul mods) ar availabl to all individuals. On contrary, this papr assums that not all th mods ar ncssary availabl to all th commutrs which hav bn rflctd in SP dsign. For Exampl, in Surabaya bcak is not allowabl to oprat on som crtain roads rsults in its non-availability as an accss mod to diffrnt usrs. Th city also xprincd Car Fr Day (Anwar t al, 2010) whr nithr nor motorcycl is allowd to oprat in som major routs of th city in som spcific days rsulting non-availability of s and motorcycl on som particular rout. Evn long distanc to th narst station or unavailability of som accss mod maks it difficult to avail som crtain lin haul mods to som usrs. Charisma and Annsha (2010) introducd a probabilistic choic st of mods to account for th absnc of actual mod choic st data in Dhaka and dvlopd a modl to prdict th choic st probabilistically for th choic contxt of Dhaka using socio conomic charactristics, origin dstination and trip purpos. In cas of dvlopd countris th ntwork data provids a rasonabl basis for prdicting th choic sts for mod slction. But, in cas of dvloping countris lik Indonsia th transport ntwork data is not wll-structurd. Paratransits (and vn in som cass traditional transits lik

6 buss) oprat byond thir prmittd routs which mak it almost impossibl to prdict th accssibility of diffrnt mods into diffrnt zons. Morovr, in dvloping countris th affordability of popl plays a vital rol in dtrmining th choic st, both for businss and non businss trips. Th numbr of usrs pr is gnrally vry high and ownrship alon is oftn not a suitabl proxy for availability. For instanc, if thr ar fiv mmbrs and a singl in th houshold, som houshold mmbrs may gt priority ovr othrs for th usag (.g. school going childrn, ldrly popl, tc.) Or, for a sam prson who is using in on day of th wk may not b avail that in anothr day for th sam purpos. So, it s ncssary to invstigat attitud of th commutrs in rspons to th availability of diffrnt mods in futur. On th othr hand choic of accss mod is strongly dpndnt on th availability of main mod and grss mod. This is ncssary to dtrmin th most prfrrd combinations of accss and grss mod with th main mod for fficintly manag th futur Dmand. 4. DATA COLLECTION (1) Statd Prfrnc Survy in Surabaya City: Th nw considration hr in this papr is that th statd prfrnc survy dsign considrd influnc of travl mod availability. In ordr to control th numbr of motorcycls in congstd roads, th scnario has bn dsignd as motorcycl will not b usd in th main roads and can b usd as only accss mod of transport which can b parkd nar BRT station paying a crtain parking charg and can b usd as an accss mod. In SP xprimnt, availability of accss, grss and main mods ar assumd to b on of th attributs affcting mod choic bhavior, as wll as th lvl-of-srvic variabls. Th assumd main mod altrnativs ar passngr s, buss, kot, and BRT. Tabl 2 Th contxts of th univrsal choic st in SP Con Accss Mod Main Mod Egrss Trip Trip txt Mod Purpos Distanc 1 Bcak, Car, Bus, BRT, Shopping Angkot 20 km 2 MC, Angkot, Car, Bus, BRT Angkot, Shopping 8 km 3 Angkot, Car, Bus, BRT, Work/ Angkot School 8 km 4 Angkot, Car, Bus, BRT, Angkot, Work/ Angkot School 20 km 5 MC, Angkot, Car, Bus, BRT Work/ School 8 km 6 MC, Bcak, Car, Bus, BRT Shopping 20 km 7 Angkot, Bus, BRT Angkot, Work/ Bcak, School 20 km 8 Bcak, Car, Bus, BRT, Angkot, Work/ Angkot School 20 km 9 Angkot, Bus, BRT Work/ Bcak, School 8 km 10 MC, Angkot, Bus, BRT, Angkot, Shopping Bcak, Angkot 8 km 11 MC, Angkot, Bus, BRT, Shopping Bcak, Angkot 8 km 12 MC, Bcak, Car, Bus, BRT Angkot, Shopping 8 km 13 Bus, BRT Angkot, Work/ School 20 km 14 MC, Bus, BRT, Angkot, Shopping Angkot 20 km 15 MC, Bus, BRT, Work/ Angkot School 8 km 16 Bus, BRT Shopping 20 m Th lvl-of-srvic attributs includ travl tim and cost for all th altrnativs. Th lvl for ach attribut is assumd as follows: (a) Th travl cost of BRT is highr than that of buss but lowr than that of passngr, (b) travl tim of BRT is shortr than that of buss, Basd on th orthogonal fractional SP dsign mthod, a total of 24 scnarios ar st up with rspct to th combinations of th assumd travl mod availability and th 6

7 lvl-of-srvic attributs with two lvls. 16 scnarios (16 substs as dscribd in Tabl 2) ar basd on hom basd trips and rmaining 8 ar about non-hom basd trips. In th qustionnair, to rduc rspondnts burdn, th 24 scnarios wr groupd into four balancd blocks. Each rspondnt rcivd only on block with six substs and is askd to choos th most prfrrd altrnativ. From th four prdfind travl mods with rspct to various trip purposs, considring th tradoffs among th assumd attributs. In addition to that th rspondnts ar also askd to rport thir socio-conomic attributs, trip frquncy to th city cntr, main travl mod, trip purpos, currnt lvl-of-srvic including travl tim, and accss tim to and grss tim from th narst bus stop, railway station, tc. Fig. 2 Gndr of th rspondnts % % Fmal 40% % Abov 59 1% % Mal 60% % (2) Survy implmntation: With th coopration of Environmntal Agncy of Surabaya City Govrnmnt, th SP survy was conductd to th randomly slctd 350 rsidnts in March To th bst of th authors knowldg, this is th first attmpt of an SP survy in Surabaya. Owing to th coopration of township officrs and rsidnts high intrsts in th survy, 270 valid qustionnairs wr succssfully collctd with a high rspons rat of mor than 80% on avrag. Th survy includd commutrs including studnts, mployd, businssmn, and houswivs of diffrnt incom groups. Th survy contnts includd commutrs individual attributs, trip attributs, and thir choics to choos bus, BRT, privat and kot. Th utility information for th nw traffic mod for th forcasting modl was collctd in a statd prfrnc survy. Studnt 29% Fig. 3 Rspondnt s ag distribution Slf Employd Un 4% mployd 1% Hous wif 3% Othr 5% Company Srvic 25% Govrnm nt Srvic 33% Fig. 4 Occupation of th rspondnts 7

8 6.0 to 7.0 (6%) 5.0 to 6.0 (8%) Mor than 7.0 (8%) 4.0 to 5.0 (13%) No Answr 5% 3.0 to 4.0 (16%) Lss than 1.0 (3%) 1.0 to 2.0 (20%) 2.0 to 3.0 (21%) 12% 88% No. of Houshold having at last on motorcycl No. of Houshold don t hav any motorcycl Fig. 6 MC ownrship of th rspondnts Fig. 5 Houshold incom (million Rp) 64% 36% No. of Houshold having at last on No. of Houshold don t hav any Fig. 7 Car ownrship of th rspondnts Bicycl 2% Bcak 2% Othrs 1% Angkot Bmo 7% Bus 2% 4% Fig. 7 Motorcycl Ownrship of th rspondnts ing 3% Privat Car/ Pickup 19% Motorcycl 60% Fig. 8 Modal Shar for th first trip of th day of th rspondnts 8

9 Ovrall srvic Nois causd Air pollution causd Connctivity Travl information Covrag aras Drivr mannr Opration hours Opration routs Opration frquncy Comfort Scurity (criminal) Ovrall srvic Nois causd Air pollution causd Connctivity to othr travl mods Travl information Covrag aras Drivr mannr Opration hours Opration routs Opration frquncy Comfort Scurity (criminal) Traffic safty Traffic safty Convninc Convninc Punctuality Travl tim Punctuality Travl tim Far Far 0% 20%40%60%80%100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% ry Dissatisfid Dissatisfid Nutral Satisfid ry satisfid ry Dissatisfid Nutral ry satisfid Dissatisfid Satisfid Fig.9 Travlrs Prcption about bcak Fig.10 Travlrs Prcption about kot 9

10 Tabl 3 Frquncy of thr most prfrrd combinations of vry contxt in SP survy Contxt Mod Choic Frq (%) 5. Modl Structur: Th mod choic by an individual during th morning hom-to-work trip could involv complx dcision making procsss which ar contxt-dpndnt, whr th contxt can b classifid into individual-spcific contxt, altrnativ-spcific contxt and circumstantial contxt. Th first typ rfrs to individuals and thir housholds attributs such as incom lvl, ownrship, occupation, ducation lvl and rsidntial locations. Th scond includs th numbr of altrnativs and thir attributs, th corrlation structur of attributs, and th availability of altrnativs. Th last rfrs to circumstantial factors that ar common to dcision makrs, such as conomic conditions and tax lvls in th purchas of passngr s. Hr in this modl only th first two typs of contxts ar considrd. Mod 10 Utility Equation of an individual for choosing a particular mod k can b xprssd as (U k ) i = ( k ) i + k) i (1) Whr, k m mk X mk n X nk nk k X k (2) is a dtrministic trm of th kth main mod option with mth mod attributs ( X mk ) and nth individual charactristics( X nk ) and ω accss/main mod options (X ωk ). Th dtrministic trm k is assumd to b a linar-in-paramtrs spcification. k) is a disturbanc componnt hiddn or unobsrvabl to th modlr. In this papr, four comptitiv main mods (i.. bus, BRT, kot and ) hav bn considrd whthr all th mods may or may not b availabl in th choic st for any individual i, thn th probability quation for individual i can b writtn as k Pr( bus) Choic Frq (%) bus bus brt Mod Choic Frq (%) 1 ing-brt-ing 44% Car 30% ing-bus-ing 14% 2 Car 26% ing-brt-ing 21% Motorcycl-BRT-ing 11% 3 ing-brt-ing 32% Angkot-BRT-ing 25% Car 21% 4 Car 29% ing-brt-ing 23% Angkot-BRT-ing 16% 5 ing-brt-ing 37% Car 17% Motorcycl-BRT-ing 14% 6 ing-brt-ing 38% Car 26% Motorcycl-BRT-ing 18% 7 ing-brt-ing 32% Angkot-BRT-ing 19% Angkot-BRT-Angkot 13% 8 ing-brt-ing 24% Car 23% ing-brt-angkot 17% 9 ing-brt-ing 42% Angkot-BRT-ing 31% ing-bus-ing 13% 10 ing-brt-ing 25% ing-brt-angkot 15% Motorcycl-BRT-ing 11% 11 ing-brt-ing 34% Angkot-BRT-ing 25% Motorcycl-BRT-ing 15% 12 Car 30% ing-brt-ing 26% ing-brt-angkot 10% 13 ing-brt-ing 55% ing-bus-ing 21% ing-brt-angkot 21% 14 ing-brt-ing 39% Motorcycl-BRT-ing 25% ing-bus-ing 10% 15 ing-brt-ing 46% Motorcycl-BRT-ing 32% ing-bus-ing 9% 16 ing-brt-ing 84% ing-bus-ing 16% (3)

11 Pr( brt) Pr( ) Pr( ) bus bus bus brt brt brt brt (4) (5) (6) Whr, =1, if kot is availabl in th choic st of individual i, =0, othrwis. availabl in th choic st, =1, if is =0, othrwis. Probability of accss mods wr also stimatd basd on th similar typs of quation 6. Modl Estimation and Discussions Hr, two diffrnt mod choic modls wr dvlopd; on for main mod choic and anothr accss mod choic. Th utility quations ar xprssd in trms of th significant dtrministic variabls which includ th altrnativ spcific constant for ach mod, altrnativ spcific socio-conomic variabls of th travlr and also som intraction variabls lik ag*gndr tc. Th significant dtrministic variabls for main mod choic and accss mod choic ar shown in tabl 3 and tabl 4 rspctivly. (1) Choic of main mod It has bn found that ag and houshold incom hav strong ffcts on main mod choic in Surabaya. Th sign indicats that aging popl hav mor utility on choosing public transit such as bus, BRT and kot, whil youngr gnration tnds to us in futur. Houshold incom has significant positiv corrlation with th utility of for all trip makrs as wll as that of BRT for mployd prsons. Othr than that incrass in houshold mods. Lvl of ducation has significant ngativ ffct on Bus Choic. Travl makrs having ducational background of at last graduation hav lss utility to choos bus with mor than 98 prcnt lvl of significanc. This may b du to th fling of status of th travl makrs. Th utility of all th main mods hav ngativ rlationship with total travl cost with 100 prcnt lvl of significanc. Tabl 4 Estimation rsults of th modls for main mod ariabls Spcific Paramtr t- mod statistics Education*gndr (=1, if highr ducation and mal) Angkot Studnt Car Employmnt (=1, if mployd in srvic) Employd as Company Srvic BRT Bus (=1, if company srvic) Ag Ag Ag*gndr (=1,if,mal) Ag*occupation (=1,if mployd as company srvic) Car BRT Bus Angkot Houshold incom (Rp) Car Houshold incom (Rp) Angkot Houshold incom (Rp) BRT Houshold incom (Rp) Bus Houshold incom BRT (Rp)*occupation *ducation (=1,if mployd as company srvic and highr ducation) Car Ownrship Car Ownrship*Gndr (=1,if mal) To Car To BRT 0.171E E E E E Total Travl Cost (Rp) All mod E Total Travl Tim (minut) All mod E Travl Distanc (km) Car Travl Distanc*Occupation (=1 if BRT mployd as Govt Srvic) Travl Distanc* Occupation (=1 If Studnt) Travl Distanc* Occupation*Gndr (=1 If mal Studnt) Bus Angkot Log liklihood at Zro Log-Liklihood at convrgnc McFaddn s Rho Squar Adjustd Mcfaddn s Rho Squar No of cass 1080 Though th paramtr of travl tim is not significant at 90 prcnt lvl, th ngativ sign of incom has ngativ ffct on th utility of all othr th paramtrs is quit rasonabl in th contxt of 11

12 dvlopmnt city lik Surabaya. Th sign of th paramtr quit rasonably point out that fastr travl mod is bttr for all trip makrs in Surabaya. Th abov modl shows that studnts ar disinclind to us as main mod with100 prcnt lvl of significanc. Travl distanc has positiv influnc Tabl 5 Estimation rsult for Accss Mod Choic ariabls Altrnativ Spcific Constant Studnt ( =1if Studnt, 0 othrwis) Spcific Mod Paramtr t- statistics Car Employd as Govrnmnt Srvic ( =1 if govrnmnt srvic 0=othrwis) Ag Houshold Incom (Rp) Bcak Motorcycl Bcak Car E E Car Ownrship Car Motorcycl Ownrship Motorcycl Gndr (=1 if Mal, 0 othrwis) Trip Distanc (km) BRT as Main Mod (=1, If main mod choic is BRT, 0 othrwis) BUS as Main Mod (=1, If main mod choic is BUS, 0 othrwis) Log liklihood at Zro Log-Liklihood at convrgnc McFaddn s Rho Squar Adjustd Mcfaddn s Rho Squar No of cass Angkot Motorcycl Motorcycl Angkot Motorcycl Angkot Motorcycl on mod choic of all usr of, BRT for govrnmnt srvic holdr and kot for mal studnt. On th othr hand for studnt longr travl distanc givs lss utility to us bus with 100 prcnt lvl of significanc. Company srvic holdrs ar mor apt to us bus with high lvl of significanc (mor than 99%) whras for mployd prsons BRT is th mod which givs mor utility. Although in th prsnt situation motorcycl ownrship is incrasing day by day but motorcycl ownrship was not found significant whil choosing th mod but ownrship lvl has significant and positiv impact on choosing and ngativ impact on choosing BRT for mals. Bsids, ag has significant ngativ ffct on mod choic. Th youngr popl ar mor attractd to for work trip which clarly dfins that will b having mor utility to th futur gnration in Surabaya City. Lik all th dvloping citis it has bn found that highr houshold incom will significantly incras th utility of fastr mod of transport lik BRT and privat. alu of paramtrs for incom shows that houshold incom incras will incras th utility of privat s mor than BRT which has bn shown in th subsqunt figurs in dtails. (2) Accss Mod Choic Main mod choic was found to hav profound ffct on accss mod choic with mor than 99 prcnt lvl of significanc. Tabl 4shows how utility of MC, walking and kot dpnds on th mod choic of bus and BRT as main mod. By comparing th paramtrs of main mod choic with th accss mod w can find that BRT as main mod contributs to utility on walking mor than MC and kot. Also, bus choic as main mod has significant influnc on choosing walking and motorcycl as th accss mod. Bcak, though sms most unpopular accss mod undr BRT scnario with vry low frquncy of choic by th rspondnts, th modl suggsts that th aging popl ar attractd to us bcak and can still b 12

13 Avrag Probablity bttr for ldrly popl But, bcak bing a xpnsiv mod of transport and only mor Houshold incom givs mor utility to us bcak (with 97% lvl of significanc).travlr s prcption about bcak can b found from th Figur 4. On can find that lvl of satisfaction ovr th ovrall srvic of bcak and kot is not vry imprssiv and drivrs mannr, scurity from th criminals, traffic safty, punctuality of th mods and travl tim ar th major sourc of concrn which can gratly influnc th futur limitd us of kot and bcak. Bcak which is bcoming xpnsiv day by day and as it is a slowr mod of transport has a vry low choic frquncy as accss mod among th SP rspondnts. According to th modl, both studnts and Govrnmnt mploy ar lss likly to prfr ing with high significanc lvl. Bsids, Surabaya popl hav high motorcycl ownrship, which has a significant positiv ffct on choosing motorcycl as accss mod (with mor than 95 % lvl of significanc) It also indicats that popl of Surabaya ar gradually moving from non-motorizd transports to motorizd transports and Motorcycl can b succssfully usd as accss mod for BRT and bus us. 7. SIMULATION ANALYSIS (1) Snsitivity to incras in houshold incom To undrstand popl s travl mod choic bhavior in th futur undr BRT, simulation analysis is conductd to xamin th influnc of futur incom on th modal choic Probability basd on th assumptions that all th othr paramtrs ar applicabl ovr a long-trm priod. Th choic probability by travl mod is calculatd basd on th stimatd SP paramtrs. It is assumd that for th xisting travl mods, thir rlvant lvl-of-srvic variabls ar all fixd at th currnt avrag valus. Th mdium lvl assumd in SP Survy is adoptd for ach variabl of th mod. Simulation rsults for ach scnario of mod availability wr don and typical rsults ar shown in from Fig 11 to Fig 20. Ch in avrag probablity of main mod choic with % ch in HIC ( contxt 9) Bas HIC 25% 50% 100% 150% 200% Pr(BUS) Pr(BRT) Fig.11 Snsitivity to HIC ch on main mod choic probability in contxt 9 13

14 Avrag Probablity Avrag probablity Avrag Probablity Ch in avrag probablity of accss mod with % ch in incom (contxt 9) Bas HIC 25% 50% 100% 150% 200% Pr(BECAK) Pr(ANGKOT) Pr(WALK) Fig. 12 Snsitivity to ch in HIC to accss mod choic probabilityundr subst 9 Ch in avrag probablity of main mod choic with % ch in HIC (contxt 1) Bas HIC 25% 50% 100% 150% 200% Pr(BUS) Pr(BRT) Pr(CAR) Pr(ANG) Fig. 13 Snsitivity to ch in HIC to main mod choic probability undr subst 1 Ch in avrag probablity of accss mod choic with % ch in HIC (contxt 1) Bas HIC 25% 50% 100% 150% 200% Pr(BECAK) Pr(CAR) Pr(WALK) Fig. 14 Snsitivity to ch in HIC to accss mod choic probability undr contxt 1 14

15 Avrag Probablity Avrag probablity Th subst whr all th four main mods ar availabl as th main mod and bcak and walking ar availabl as accss mod. It has bn found that th avrag probability of only will incras at a bas scnario, BRT us givs th highr avrag probability utility than and also it givs mor avrag utility out of all th public transports. At any lvl of incom and undr any availability Ch in avrag probablity of main mod choic with % ch in HIC (contxt 6) Bas HIC 25% 50% 100% 150% 200% Pr(BUS) Pr(BRT) Pr(CAR) Fig. 15 Snsitivity to ch in HIC on main mod choic probability undr contxt 6 with th incras in houshold incom. But, with th incras in incom utility BRT, bus and kot dcrass. Transit systms los thir choic probability whn incom incrass. Th simulatd situations assumd that, th xisting transport systms ar maintaind unchd and th standard vrsion of a Bus Rapid Transit systm will prvail, scnario of th mods BRT hav mor avrag choic probability than all th othr mods. But, at a crtain attainmnt of HIC, choic probability xcds all th othrs. From figur 15, it is also worth mntioning that in subst 6 whr kot is not availabl as main mod avrag choic probability of will b qual to that of BRT at an Ch in avrag probablity of accss mod choic with % ch in HIC (contxt 6) Bas HIC 25% 50% 100% 150% 200% Pr(BECAK) Pr(MC) Pr(CAR) Pr(WALK) Fig 16 Snsitivity to ch in HIC on accss mod choic probability undr contxt 6 15

16 Avrag Probablity Avrag Probability incom lvl which is 2.5 tims th prsnt incom lvl. This howvr found diffrnt for diffrnt scnario.for xampl, in th scnario whr all main mods ar availabl as in Fig 13, avrag choic probability of xcds that of BRT at a houshold incom lvl which is mor than 3 tims highr than th prsnt. Probability of BRT is mor than bus choic probability and kot givs th last avrag choic probability out of this four main mods. With incras of houshold incom walking as wll as kot loss choic probability whr as bcak has th potntial to to b usd as accss mod undr incras in Houshold incom in choic probability also affcts th accss mod choic probability as shown in fig 16.Th fig shows that incras in choic probability mad rduction of walking as an accss mod. Fig11 and Fig 12xplains scnario whr only bus and BRT is availabl as main mod and incras in incom incras BRT choic probability making rduction of bus choic probability which also rsults in rduction of kot and walking mod choic probability as an accss mod. Snsitivity of ch in Bus Travl Tim and Travl cost to main mod choic Probablity (Contxt 5) Bas Scnario 90% of Bas TT & TC 75% of Bas TT &TC Pr(BUS) Pr(BRT) Pr(CAR) Fig.17 Snsitivity to bus travl tim and travl cost rduction on main mod choic probability in contxt 5 (2) Snsitivity to ch in kot / bus travl tim and travl cost on mod choic probability of kot/bus: In th bas scnario kot has th lowst choic Snsitivity of ch in Bus Travl Tim and Travl cost to Accss mod choic Probablity (Contxt 5) Bas Scnari o 90% of Bas TT & TC 75% of Bas TT &TC Pr(ANGKOT) Pr(MC) Pr(CAR) Pr(WALK) Fig. 18 Snsitivity to bus travl tim and travl cost rduction on accss mod choic probability in contxt 5 probability among all th four mods followd by bus. So, simulation has bn don in qust for policy issus to incras kot s usag. Simulation has bn don assuming that all othr variabls for all th mods and all th socio conomic variabls rmain unchd. It was found 16

17 Avrag Probablity Avrag Probability that (Fig 19) with 25 % rduction of kot total travl tim and travl cost th choic probability of kot will b doubl th bas scnario. in kot s choic probability also influncd to incras th choic probability of MC as an accss mod as shown in Fig 20. Similar simulation was Snsitivity of ch in kot travl tim and travl cost to main mod choic probablity (Contxt 14) Bas Scna rio 90% of Bas TT & TC also rid out for bus. Fig 17 shows that 25 prcnt rduction of bus travl tim rsults in drastic incras in choic probability of bus and which quals th choic probability of in bas scnario undr subst 5 whr thr is no kot availabl as main mod. On th othr hand incras in bus choic probability brings corrsponding chs in accss mod prfrnc. Fig 18 shows that bus main mod is synchronizd with walking as accss mod. That s why incras of choic probability of bus also incrass us of walk as accss mod and dcras th choic probability of motorizd accss mod lik MC and kot. Although, bus has mor avrag utility than kot, in all th subst it has lowr avrag choic 75% of Bas TT &TC Pr(BUS) Pr(BRT) Pr(ANG) Fig.19 Snsitivity to kot travl tim and cost rduction on main mod choic probability in contxt 14 probability than BRT. Fig.20 Snsitivity to kot travl tim and cost rduction on accss mod choic probability in contxt 14 Snsitivity of ch in kot travl tim and travl cost to accss mod choic probablity (contxt 14) Bas Scn ario 90% of Bas TT & TC In all th contxts, bus was assumd to xist with th BRT and it was assumd to hav chapr and slowr attributs than BRT. It will b highly infasibl for buss to oprat on th routs whr BRT xists unlss thr ar rduction of Travl tim and cost. On th othr hand, bus has highr avrag utility than kot at any lvl of houshold incom and it can compt with kot to gt th mor modal shar. So, unavailability of BRT on any particular rout can draw major trips in to bus ovr kot. So, oprating bus and BRT in th sam rout will not b fasibl and bus can b an immdiat altrnativ to BRT on routs whr BRT is not implmntd. Gnrally, a dcras in th srvic quality of public transit lads to an incras in dmand of privat vhicls. To illustrat th ffct of ch in th public transport srvic quality on th choic probability, w simulat th cas whr 25 prcnt dcras in travl tim for bus and kot was considrd sparatly % of Bas TT &TC Pr(MC) Pr(WALK)

18 8. CONCLUSION: Bus Rapid Transit systm got th highst utility and avrag choic probability among th public transport mods, sinc it mbodis th charactristics of a mod that urban travlrs considr fast, comfortabl, convnint and accssibl, not withstanding its highly subsidizd far systm. Hnc, it is thrfor important for th govrnmnt to focus its attntion to th provision of BRT systm in Surabaya. And also for succssful implmntation of BRT it is ncssary to prdict th actual dmand which might gnrat du to introduction of BRT undr prdfind attributs. Undr BRT systm accss mod choic will b dpndnt on main mod choic and unlss good walking facilitis ar providd thr can b major shift in motorizd accss mod in futur. ing Facilitis should b improvd in th Surabaya City which can rduc th us of privat motorizd vhicls in Surabaya city as an accss mod and can also stimulat public transit us. Bcak can still b vry ffctiv for ldrly popl for accss mod choic and sufficint road safty and scurity masur should b providd for its ffctiv us. And also undr BRT systm thr should b park and rid systm for motorcycl so that commutrs can us this as a fastr accss mod. Travl tim and travl cost rduction of both kot and bus can b a solution for its xistnc in Surabaya City. In futur, kot ownrs should hav to mak it fastr and safr from th criminal activitis and it should b mor customrs orintd. This papr xplors th factors which can affct th utility of BRT in futur. arious availability options can b proprly tstd through this modl th outcom of th study can b usd in dmand 18 prdictions as for chs in th variabls both for accss mod and main mod; for instanc travl tim and various scnarios of mod availability. Th proposd modl can b usd in Surabaya mtropolitan rgion to dsign and implmnt mor ffctiv and appropriat transportation solutions for rliving congstion undr a sustainabl transportation horizon. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT W would lik to tak th opportunity to thank diffrnt partis that contributd to our work. Th abov rsarch was don undr an Intrnship program organizd and financd by G.cbo of Hiroshima Univrsity and th first author would lik to giv gratitud to Gcbo and Hiroshima Univrsity. Spcial thanks also go to Surabaya City Govrnmnt who is th host institution for Intrnship and this subsqunt rsarch. REFERENCES 1) Alxis M. FILLONE, Crsncio M. MONTALBO Jr, Noril Christophr C. Tiglao ; Transport mod choic modls for mtro manila and urban transport policy applications Journal of th Eastrn Asia Socity for Transportation Studis, ol. 7, ) Raqul Espino, Juan d Dios Ortu zar, Concpcio n Roma n; Undrstanding suburban travl dmand: Flxibl modling with rvald and statd choic data. Transportation Rsarch Part A 41 (2007) ) Ghbrgziabihr Dbrzion, Eric Pls, Pit Ritvld (2008); Modlling th joint accss mod and railway station choic. Transportation Rsarch Part E 45 (2009) ) Zh Junyi, Fujiwara Akimasa, Thin So (2008) Capturing Travllrs Statd Mod Choic Prfrncs

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