From State of Science to State of the Art Reliability

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Evan Lane
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7 th Euopa-Amica Wokshop o Riabiity of NDE Mo ifo about this atic: http://www.dt.t/?

com Mapaqutstaß 14a, 13347 Bi Pobabiistic vauatios, i th fom of Pobabiity of Dtctio (POD) o Rciv Opatig Chaactistics (ROC), hav thi oigi i vauatig tstig systms fo spaccaft ad miitay aicafts.

1 7 th Euopa-Amica Wokshop o Riabiity of NDE Mo ifo about this atic: Abstact Fom Stat of Scic to Stat of th At Riabiity Dai KANZLER 1 1 Appid Vaidatio of NDT, Bi, Gmay Cotact -mai: KaD@av-dt.com Mapaqutstaß 14a, Bi Pobabiistic vauatios, i th fom of Pobabiity of Dtctio (POD) o Rciv Opatig Chaactistics (ROC), hav thi oigi i vauatig tstig systms fo spaccaft ad miitay aicafts. Ov th ast fiv dcads, oth domais (civi giig, ptochmica idusty, aiway, cticity gatio ad th fia dposit of spt uca fu) usd ths appoachs ad dvopd highy sophisticatd mthods to vauat thi tstig systms. Th scitific appoach aows a pcis vauatio of sophisticatd tstig systms, such as th smi-automatd phasd aay utasoic tstig quipmt. Athough th kowdg is th ad coud b usd to impov th tstig pocsss, coud b customid to th spcific ds of th cit, ad woud povid a aistic imag of th tstig pocss, ots of compais us o-dstuctiv tstig mthods without kowig th abiity of thi systm. This is bcaus th compais a ith ot awa of th kowdg, fid it too compx fo thi appicatio, o bcaus of th high costs associatd with th vauatio. This pap wi show that th a toos (withi th dsig of xpimts ad statistica mods) that ca b usd to obtai a udstadab pobabiistic vauatio of th tstig pocss ad mas fo optimiatio that mt th ds v of sma compais. Lics: 1

2 What a th futu quimts fo iabiity Fom Stat of Scic to Stat of th At Riabiity D. Ig. Dai KANZLER 2 Pobabiistic vauatio fo vyo Ro of sma ad mdium tpiss (SME) fo ag compais: Suppis Outsoucd compais Extdd wokbch Ré Sö 2014: Di witschaftich Bdutug ki ud mitt Uthm i Dutschad

3 3 A SME usig iabiity mods to guaat goba quaity? Potio of SME compais pubishig atics about POD Souc: Evauatio of a samp si of ov 250 pubicatios about Riabiity 4 Us of iabiity mthods i SME Why a SME ot usig iabiity toos: High costs of Dsig of Expimts ad Pobabiity of Dtctio studis Missig kowdg du to sma amout of couss avaiab f softwa fw udstadab itatu fo bgis Missig psoa fo th vauatio SME d mo hp ad oth quimts i th topic of iabiity mthods

4 5 How much dos quaity cost? Th costs of quaity pobms wi is appoximaty aoud 30%. Th xpctd costs of th quaity isk might b aoud 215 Md. US Doa Quaität 4.0 as Atwot auf di 215 Miiad Doa Hausfodug (Mä 2017) 6 Rquimts of th mod NDT situatio

5 7 Stat of th us of iovativ quaity toos Expctd advatags i compaiso with th stat of us Pdictiv quaity Systmatic aays Quaität 4.0 as Atwot auf di 215 Miiad Doa Hausfodug (Mä 2017) Basic too fo a fist sig of iabiity

6 9 Dfiitio of fidig dfcts Dfct i compot Safty magi Dfid Thshod Dfct f compot 0 Cosqucs of tstig suts Tuth Tstig sut Cosqucs ad costs 0 Miima Costs: Costs fo doig th o dstuctiv tstig $ Scappig of th compot + tstig costs $$$ Scappig of a good pat + tstig costs $$$$$ Costs of a compot faiu + tstig costs

7 1 Usfu Chaactistics Tuth Tstig sut cofimd: dfct f Chaactistics Fas aam at (FAR) Hit Fas aam Pobabiity of Dtctio (POD) Miss 2 Evauatio of citica dfcts

8 3 Wokig poit I: Impovig th POD Impovmt of th dtctio at 4 Wokig poit II: Impovig th FAR Impovmt of th fas aam at

9 5 Advatags fo ROC Th ROC mthods a usfu fo SME: asy to udstad asy to us Basic ifomatio about iabiity Pobabiity of Dtctio Fas Aam Rat fo a spcific citica dfct Widy usd i difft aas Mdici Siga thoy 6 Systmaticay aaysis ad pdictiv quaity Dfct i compot Dfid Thshod Dfct f compot Udstadig th dcisio thshod Dpdig o th tstig task (citicaity ad costs) Dpdig o th capabiity ad iabiity of tstig systm Pobabiistic vauatio mthods ca hp fo th costuctio ad paig fo tstig itva

10 7 2. Chagig th o of NDT fo p si a k shp to moy-sa i g guadia a g 8 Stat of th poductio viomt

11 9 Futu Oitatio of NDT 0 Chagigs of th costuctio aft iabity vauatios Impovmts though th chagig of th gomty ad th pocss of poductio ad th optimatio of th usd tstig mthods Voum POD fo th vauatio of th tstab aas Mato PAVLOVIC u.a.(2010): NDT i Aospac Th Voum POD as a Optimisatio Too of Mutip NDT I sp tio s [ ]

12 1 3. Futu of Riabiity ad ROC 2 Cofcs ad Wokshops Euopa-Amica Wokshop o Riabiity of NDE Op Spac Tchoogy (OST) Bak Out Sssio Discussios

13 3 Itatioay wokig with POD ICNDT Itatioa Spciaist Goup NDT Riabiity Natio a a d i t atio a oki g goups a out th topi Ria iit Topic spcific goups.g. MaPOD Goups To sov pobms ik: MaPOD Tchica justificatio Kid of dfcts: atificia, aistic, a I svic basd POD Stuctua Hath Moitoig POD Huma Factos Thak you fo you atttio. Ay qustios? Fo futh ifomatio:

Real Defects as the Major Challenge of Useful POD Evaluations

Real Defects as the Major Challenge of Useful POD Evaluations 7 th Euopan-Amican Wokshop on Riabiity of NDE Ra Dfcts as th Majo Chang of Usfu POD Evauations Dani KANZLER 1, Mato PAVLOVIC 2 1 Appid Vaidation of NDT Mapaqutstaß 14a, 13347 Bin, Gmany 2 BAM Bundsanstat