Empirical Development Economics. Prerequisites ECON BC3035 or ECON BC3033 and Econometrics, or permission of the instructor.

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1 Empirical Develpment Ecnmics Lecturer: Assistant Prfessr Anja Tlnen Teaching Assistant: Smayeh Ahmadi Office hurs: Prf Tlnen T 9-10 by appintment nly, am drp in Office hurs: T.A. Ahmadi Thursday 3-4 pm Office: Barnard Hall, ffice 243 Class time: MW 02:40P-03:55P Class rm: ALT 903 Cntact TA: sahmadi@gradcenter.cuny.edu Cntact Prfessr: atlnen@barnard.edu Prerequisites ECON BC3035 r ECON BC3033 and Ecnmetrics, r permissin f the instructr. Curse Descriptin The glbal ecnmy is rapidly changing, and is facing many challenges ranging frm unequal distributin f incme, pr institutins, health epidemics and natural disasters. Hw can we quantify and understand these challenges? What tls d we have t evaluate the efficiency f plicies aiming t slve these challenges? This class will help students learn hw t access and analyze data, bth real time and histric, t deepen their understanding f the cntemprary glbal ecnmy. The students will learn hw t use state-f-the-art applied ecnmetric techniques t histric data, census data, husehld surveys, experimental data and big data, such as web scraped data and satellite data, and discuss methdlgical issues such as causal inference, experimental techniques, replicability, preanalysis plans and publicatin bias. Literature glbal pverty. Public Affairs, Chapters 1-5. Glennerster, Rachel, and Kudzai Takavarasha. Running randmized evaluatins: A practical guide. Princetn University Press, Casey, Katherine, Rachel Glennerster, and Edward Miguel. "Reshaping institutins: Evidence n aid impacts using a preanalysis plan." The Quarterly Jurnal f Ecnmics (2012): Miguel, Edward, et al. "Prmting transparency in scial science research." Science (2014): Ashraf, Nava, et al. Bride price and female educatin. N. w Natinal Bureau f Ecnmic Research, Dufl, Esther. "Schling and Labr Market Cnsequences f Schl Cnstructin in Indnesia: Evidence frm an Unusual Plicy Experiment." American Ecnmic Review 91.4 (2001): Baird, Sarah J., et al. Girl Pwer: Cash transfers and adlescent welfare. Evidence frm a cluster-randmized experiment in Malawi. N. w Natinal Bureau f Ecnmic Research, (Fr replicatin assignment) Faria, Nun R., et al. "The early spread and epidemic ignitin f HIV-1 in human ppulatins." Science (2014): Hff, Karla, and Priyanka Pandey. "Discriminatin, scial identity, and durable inequalities." The American Ecnmic Review 96.2 (2006):

2 Haushfer, Jhannes, and Jeremy Shapir. "The shrt-term impact f uncnditinal cash transfers t the pr: Experimental Evidence frm Kenya." The Quarterly Jurnal f Ecnmics (2016): Learning Outcmes Students cmpleting this curse will: Develp empirical and analytical skills that can be applied t current develpment issues in a glbal cntext. Have insight int available data surces including husehld surveys, natinal statistics, experimental data, satellite prduct data and data scraping. Be familiar with empirical appraches t evaluating develpment practices, including randmized cntrl trials, regressin discntinuity and difference-in-difference techniques. Be familiar with sftware fr analysis f ecnmic and gegraphic data, including STATA, R, R studi, and QGIS, and scientific editing sftware Latex. Understand the rle f randmizatin, transparency, replicability and preregistratin f research prjects within empirical develpment ecnmics. Evaluatin In-class participatin (5%) Assignments (50%) Final take hme exam (45%) Empirical assignments There will be several empirical assignments. The empirical assignments will be intrduced in class assignments and cmpleted at hme if necessary. Assignments (50%): A1: Online data surces and Wrld Develpment Indicatrs (5%), January 30, 10AM A2: Analyzing Fertility Data in STATA (5%), February 6, 10AM A3: Design Dream Randmized Cntrl Trial (Presentatin 10%), March 6 r 8 A4: Girl Pwer: Cash Transfers and Adlescent Welfare. Evidence frm A Cluster-Randmized Experiment in Malawi (Replicatin) (10%), April 10, 10AM A5: Mapping spread f a disease with QGIS (10%), April 17, 10AM A6: Mexican Cash Transfer: Create a questinnaire and an experimental prtcl (written 5%, presentatin 5%), April 24, 10AM Lecture 1: Intrductin (18 January) Curse Outline (preliminary) Lecture 2: Glbal patterns f develpment (23 January) glbal pverty. Public Affairs, Frewrd, Chapter 1-2. Assignment: Online data surces and WDI (Assign. 5%) (Needs excel) Lecture 3: Help sessin. Intrductin t STATA (25 January) STATA with the Empirical Reasning Center (the ERC) Please bring yur wn laptp with STATA if pssible, but nt necessary. 2

3 Hw t use lgs and d-files t save yur wrk Hw t clean data and run regressins in STATA Lecture 4: Glbal patterns f develpment (30 January) glbal pverty. Public Affairs, Chapter 5 Assignment: Ppulatin structure and fertility (Assign. 5%) (Needs STATA) Lecture 5. Gender (sessin 1) in the Middle East (February 1) Guest lecture by Dr. Alessandra Gnzales, University f Chicag Lecture 6. Gender (sessin 2) (February 6) Reading: Ashraf, Nava, et al. Bride price and female educatin. N. w Natinal Bureau f Ecnmic Research, Fcus n Figures 1-2, Tables 2, 4, 6, 8, 10. Skip Sectin 5 (The Mdel), and Appendix. What is their empirical strategy t understand hw bride price affects investment in girls educatin? Discuss the internal validity f the results What cuntries d the authrs research? Why wuld the researchers chse t research tw such different cuntries? Bride price traditin is prevalent in different parts f the wrld. The authrs study bth Zambia and Indnesia. These are tw very different cuntries, and as the authrs explit, als have significant cultural differences within the cuntries. D yu believe that the results are externally valid? What is the rle f culture fr ecnmic develpment? Shuld develpment plicies try t leverage cultural expressins like the bride price t increase educatin? When? When nt? Lecure 7. Transparency in Scial Science: The Need fr Transparency (February 8) Reading: Prmting Transparency in Scial Science Research (Miguel et al., published in Science, 2014) What issues d randmized trials and quasi-experimental research design aim t slve? RCTs increase the internal validity. What transparency and validity issues des the RCT methd nt slve? What is the external validity f a result frm an RCT? Discuss strengths and weaknesses. Why d yu think the authrs argue that the current way f publishing leads t a distrted bdy f evidence with t few null effects and many false psitives What is publicatin bias? What is the rle f study registratin within the scial sciences? What is a pre-specified analysis plan? Why is data sharing imprtant? If yu brught sme material with yu tday, feel free t bring it int the discussin at any pint. Discuss with yur neighbrs fr 15 minutes. I will call yu ut at randm during the class discussin. Even if yu are nt called, yu are expected t talk. Lecure 8. R (February 13) ERC wrkshp R, sessin 1 Hw t use R and R studi Hw t use R Markdwn t generate a replicable research frm data t cde t final draft 3

4 Lecture 9. Transparency in Scial Science (sessin 2): The Experimental Apprach (February 15) Glennerster, Rachel, and Kudzai Takavarasha. Running randmized evaluatins: A practical guide. Princetn University Press, Chapter 1 The experimental apprach Chapter 2 Why randmize Chapter 3 Asking the right questins Lecture 10. Transparency in Scial Science (sessin 3) (February 20) Casey, Katherine, Rachel Glennerster, and Edward Miguel. "Reshaping institutins: Evidence n aid impacts using a preanalysis plan." The Quarterly Jurnal f Ecnmics (2012): What is the main research questin? What is the main empirical issue the authrs face in trying t answer the research questin? What are the researcher temptatins that the authrs refer t? What is the methdlgical innvatin f the paper? What is the purpse f this methdlgical innvatin? What rle d yu think it will play within scial science research? Hw d the authrs demnstrate the need fr the innvatin? Lecture 11. R (Sessin 2) (February 22) ERC wrkshp R, sessin 2 Advanced tpics in R Hw t prduce reprducible and replicable research in R Hw t generate Latex cde in R Lecture 12. Causal Inference: Applicatins t Human Capital (Sessin 2) (February 27) Dufl, Esther. "Schling and Labr Market Cnsequences f Schl Cnstructin in Indnesia: Evidence frm an Unusual Plicy Experiment." American Ecnmic Review 91.4 (2001): Assignment: Design the Dream Randmized Cntrl Trial (Presentatin 10%) Identifying an riginal research questin Designing an interventin that can be evaluated using rigrus evaluatin techniques Hw t use a preanalysis plan and d pwer calculatins Lecture 13. Causal Inference: Applicatins t Human Capital (Sessin 3) (March 1) Glennerster, Rachel, and Kudzai Takavarasha. Running randmized evaluatins: A practical guide. Princetn University Press, Chapter 4: Randmizing Chapter 6: Statistical Pwer Chapter 7: Threats Lecture 14 & 15. Student Presentatins (2 Sessins) (March 6 and 8) Student in class presentatins f the assignment Dream Randmized Cntrl Trial (10%) SPRING BREAK (March 11 19) Lecture 16. QGIS with ERC (March 20) Bring laptp with QGIS installed (free sftware) Hw t map gegraphic data and emply it in ecnmics research 4

5 Lecture 17. LaTex with ERC (March 22) Bring laptp with TexShp installed (free sftware) Hw t prduce results in R and STATA and autmatically update yur research paper Hw t write mathematical expressins using LaTex Lecture 18. Human Capital and Causal Inference (Sessin 4) (March 27) glbal pverty. Public Affairs, Chapter 4. Data Geeks Are Taking Over Ecnmics (article) Lecture 18. Health (sessin 1) (March 29) glbal pverty. Public Affairs, Chapter 3. Baird, Sarah J., et al. Girl Pwer: Cash transfers and adlescent welfare. Evidence frm a cluster-randmized experiment in Malawi. N. w Natinal Bureau f Ecnmic Research, Tpics: Randmized Cntrl Trials What rle can research play in develpment plicy? Why d we need replicatin in scial science research? Hw t access and use replicatin files frm published research Assignment: Replicate the analysis frm Girl Pwer: Cash transfers and adlescent welfare. Evidence frm a cluster-randmized experiment in Malawi. Lecture 19. Health (sessin 2) (April 3) Reading: Can We Talk In Private (Abut Family Planning)? (JPAL plicy brief). Questin: What is the main research questin? Why is the main research questin imprtant? Methds: Hw d they test it? (Explain the interventin and identifcatin strategy Findings: What is the main finding? Plicy: Given the finding, what plicy recmmendatins wuld yu make? Extensins: Identify fur remaining plicy questins frm the research cntext. Search ggle schlar fr answers t yur questins. Judge the quality f the research yu have identified Specify what remaining questins wuld need t be answered, and suggest ways t answer them Lecture 20. Health (sessin 3) (April 5) Guest Lecture: Karla Hff, the Wrld Bank Read: Lecture 21. Health (sessin 4) (April 10): The gegraphic spread f disease Reading: Faria, Nun R., et al. "The early spread and epidemic ignitin f HIV-1 in human ppulatins." Science (2014): Assignment: Mapping the spread f HIV, Ebla, and Zika 5

6 Lecture 22. Experimental Develpment Ecnmics (sessin 5) (April 12) Reading: Hff, Karla, and Priyanka Pandey. "Discriminatin, scial identity, and durable inequalities." The American ecnmic review 96.2 (2006): Prf. Tlnen s RCT regarding PROSPERA in Mexic Assignment: Create an experimental game/questinnaire t test a specific hypthesis t add t the randmized cntrl trial (Assign. 5%, Presentatin n April 24 and 26) Lecture 23. April 17 N class Lecture 24. Experimental Develpment Ecnmics (sessin 1) April 19 Reading: Haushfer, Jhannes, and Jeremy Shapir. "The shrt-term impact f uncnditinal cash transfers t the pr: Experimental Evidence frm Kenya." The Quarterly Jurnal f Ecnmics (2016): a. The authrs study a randmized cntrl trial. At what levels were the randmizatin dne? Why? What are the different treatment arms? What utcme variables are analyzed? b. The authrs cllect data n subjective psychlgical well-being as well as n the stress hrmne crtisl. i. What are the advantages with cllecting data n crtisl levels? ii. What are the drawbacks with the same measure? iii. Hw is it cllected? iv. Hw d the authrs address ethical cncerns? c. What are the main findings f the paper? d. Discuss prgram eligibility, cmpliance and attritin e. Discuss what the authrs d in the sectin f Minimum Detectable Effect Sizes f. The authrs argue that they make imprtant methdlgical cntributins (see page 1977). What are these cntributins? Hw wuld yu value these cntributins? Lecture 25. Experimental Develpment Ecnmics (sessin 3) (April 24) Presentatin questinnaire fr field experiment (Assign. 5%) Lecture 26. Experimental Develpment Ecnmics (sessin 3) (April 26) Presentatin questinnaire fr field experiment (5%) May 1: Review sessin Mtivatin fr take-hme exam The final exam will be a take hme exam. The exam will be designed accrding t the criteria stated in the faculty guide. The take hme exam will nt be the nly written assignment in the curse. It will serve t allw students t be examined n the learning utcmes defined in the curse, such as aptitude in analyzing different types f data surces using statistical sftware, t understand prcesses f ecnmic develpment. 6